5 F. low in the metro area Monday morning.
14 F. high in the Twin Cities Monday.
23 F. average high on January 14.
21 F. high on January 14, 2012.

Trace of snow reported at MSP International Monday evening.

Subzero highs a week from today? Next Tuesday may be the coldest day of winter with wind chill values dipping to -20.

  I’m “Dancing” Here’s how my Monday started; a tweet from the city of Shorewood: “We need snow! You are letting us down for our Arctic Fever Festival this weekend in Shorewood, Tonka Bay & Excelsior. Don’t you have a special dance you can do?” I wish it was that simple. And you’ve never seen me dance. Picture a guy having convulsions while snapping his fingers. If I could dance, or kick the Doppler, push a button to end our drought, I would in a heartbeat. We’re at the mercy of larger patterns. Until Pacific storms carve out a persistent trough of low pressure over the Rockies, and steering winds howl from New Mexico and Texas, it’s going to be tough getting significant moisture in here. At least we’ve picked up 16.9 inches this winter at KMSP. Chicago has seen just over 1 inch. The drought signal is still holding strong. A dusting of flurries is possible Wednesday as temperatures try to thaw; more 30s possible Friday. A couple inches of dry, fluffy, powdery snow may fall Monday as the coldest air of winter cascades south. Highs may hold below 0 over much of Minnesota next Monday & Tuesday. Temperatures rebound nicely by late January. Next week we’ll all be dancing (and snapping our fingers?) just to stay warm.  

Fun With Negative Numbers. Enjoying the warm front? A week from today there may be some serious gripes: cars that won’t start, minor cases of frostbite down at the bus stop. ECMWF model guidance shows a warming trend, a shot at 30-32 F. by Wednesday, maybe low 30s Friday. An Alberta Clipper brushes MSP with a coating to an inch or so of snow Saturday, followed by single digits Sunday and Monday. The core of the coldest air arrives next Tuesday, with a “high” of -9, and wind chills dipping to -20. Lovely. Time to cash in those frequent flier miles.
 

Predicted Snowfall By Midday Saturday. NAM guidance shows the impact of a series of clippers, as much as half a foot of new snow for far northern Minnesota, maybe 3-4″ for Duluth and Grand Rapids (for Saturday’s Mega-Hockey Festivities), possibly an inch or two for the Twin Cities metro by Saturday afternoon.
 

A Real January. Last year was a gift, at least for Minnesotans who love snow and cold. This year? Not so much. I still don’t see significant snow, but numbing air will surge south in a couple of “waves”, one arriving early next week, another the last few days of January, if GFS model data can be believed. My confidence level is fairly high we’ll see a few subzero nights (and days) early next week; a lower confidence level about another outbreak at the very end of the month. No sign of spring fever.

3.7″ snow so far this season at Kansas City.
1.3″ snow so far this winter in Chicago.

35 F. low at LAX International Airport in Los Angeles Monday morning, the coldest in 23 years – tying the old record low set in 1990. The all-time record low for L.A.? 28, most recently set in 1949. NBC Southern California has details.

January Weather Flip-Flops. In Monday’s edition of WeatherNationTV’s Climate Matters I take a look at some of the wild extremes, here in the USA and worldwide: “One side of the country is experiencing record heat. The other side record cold. Who would ever guess the low temperature this morning was warmer 16 degrees warmer in Boston than Los Angeles? For more on the wacky January weather flip flop here’s Meteorologist Paul Douglas.”

* here’s a chronological look at all the climate segments I’ve prepared, available on YouTube (latest clips at screen bottom).

A Very Close Encounter. Although the extended “NAEFS” temperature outlook from NOAA (above) from January 22-28 keeps the core of the most bitter air a few hundred miles to our north, I expect subzero air to brush Minnesota early next week, possibly the coldest outbreak of the winter. Another (brief) subzero encounter is possible by late January, but the core of the very coldest air may pass just north/east of MSP.

Alaska Forecast To Cool Down Again. Alaska has been unusually mild (near 40 in Anchorage over the weekend) with rain penetrating into the interior. But models show Alaska chilling down again in the coming week. When Alaska is mild Minnesota is (often) bitterly cold, and vice versa. I sense our coldest weather of winter will come early next week, followed by slight moderation by the end of January. Details from the Anchorage office of the NWS: “Mild air continues to melt southcentral Alaska’s snow and ice this afternoon. Short, warm spells such as this during Winter
are not unusual for the area. The primary cause for the warmup is the configuration of the Jet Stream, the fast-moving river of air that circles the Earth and drives the weather below.“

I Feel Your Pain. Not only is the lack of snow bad for snow lovers and winter events around the state, it doesn’t bode well for our ongoing, 6-month old drought. According to local climate experts what will make all the difference is whether we see heavy wet snow and/or significant rain in late winter and early spring, once the ground has a chance to thaw out, and moisture can absorb into topsoil. If we don’t see significant moisture with a shift in the pattern, the current (severe) drought in the metro could eventually rival what we experienced back in 1988. Let’s hope that doesn’t come to pass. I’ll kick the Doppler (again) and see if Old Man Winter is in the mood for snow. Don’t hold your breath.

Ask Paul. Weather-related Q&A:

Hi Paul, “I begin my morning with your column (wanting to know when I get to use my snowmachine!).  Do you have powers to make that happen?
Quick question on the precipitation per 24 hours.  It is written as mm/24 hours but for instance on Sunday you are predicting the possibility of a couple of inches yet the 3.5mm/24 hours only amounts .14inches.  Is there something I am missing here in terms of precipitation and snowfall amounts?“ Thank You, Levi Kraft Hi Levi – I appreciate you being a loyal reader; and wish I could hit a button and make it snow. Next company? The lawyers would have a field-day with that. Your question is a good one, and here is why (IF) it snows Sunday amounts could be more than .14″ liquid would imply. When it’s bitterly cold (single digits or teens) snowfall ratios can be close to 30 to 1; 30″ of snow for every inch of liquid precipitation. Around 30 F. that ratio is closer to 10 to 1. So assuming we do see a vigorous clipper out ahead of what may be the coldest front of winter, that .14″ could wind up being 2 or even 3″ of light, fluffy, powdery snow. The colder the temperature, the more air between the flakes – like a featherbed the snow gets pumped up. Nothing definite yet. That old adage “when in a drought don’t forecast rain…or snow” is ringing in my ears. Stay tuned.

Serious Extremes. Welcome to the “dead of winter” over the Northern Hemisphere. Historically, this is the week where temperatures bottom out, and the next 1-2 weeks promise to be the coldest of the winter for Canada and the northern tier of the USA, as well as Scandanavia and much of Russia/Siberia. Meanwhile 100-degree heat is baking Argentina, central Africa and much of Australia. 72 hour GFS-based extreme forecast courtesy of Ham Weather.

Thursday Evening’s Balloon Launch Sets New Record. The weather balloon launched by the Twin Cities NWS last Thursday evening set a record for the most moisture ever encountered above the Twin Cities during the month of January. Warmer air can hold more water vapor (this is a simplification, but true) and last week’s balloon launch was historic. Details from the KMPX NWS: “The balloon launched at 6 pm on Januar 10th, 2013 (midnight GMT January 11th) set a record for the most moisture ever recorded by a weather balloon in the month of January since balloons began to be released regularly twice a day at St. Cloud in 1948 (moved to Chanhassen in 1995)….”

Almost Half Of The World’s Food Thrown Away, Report Finds. That’s a sobering statistic; The Guardian has the story – here’s an excerpt: ”As much as half of all the food produced in the world – equivalent to 2bn tonnes – ends up as waste every year, engineers warned in a report published on Thursday. The UK’s Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE) blames the “staggering” new figures in its analysis on unnecessarily strict sell-by dates, buy-one-get-one free and Western consumer demand for cosmetically perfect food, along with “poor engineering and agricultural practices”, inadequate infrastructure and poor storage facilities. In the face of United Nations predictions that there could be about an extra 3 billion people to feed by the end of the century and growing pressure on the resources needed to produce food, including land, water and energy, the IMechE is calling for urgent action to tackle this waste…”

Photo credit above: “Between 30% and 50% or 1.2-2bn tonnes of food produced around the world never makes it on to a plate.” Photograph: Murdo MacLeod for the Guardian

“iPotty: Toilet Training, Now With Added iPad. Is it wrong to want an adult version of this? It is? O.K. Never mind. Gizmag.com has more details if you have a toddler who loves to multitask: “It’s an unspoken truth of gadgets that some people use their smartphone or even tablet computer while in the bathroom. Now even toddlers who are yet to master the toilet can get in on the action with iPotty – a child’s toilet training potty with a built-in iPad stand…”

The Perils Of Auto-Correct. Why does my smartphone hate me? The examples above were part of a very funny (and raunchy) post of the 25 Funniest AutoCorrects of 2012 from Buzzfeed. OMG.

Weather Forecast Calls For Heavy Rainfall, 50% Chance Of Batman. WeatherNation TV is making news, in rather unusual ways. Here’s an excerpt of a post at io9.com: ”Over at Newton Blog, Ross Pomeroy serves up a great example of misperceived random stimuli in the form of a 3-day rainfall forecast. The screenshot, he says, was captured by a friend working at Weather Nation, and comes from the Rapid Precision Mesoscale weather forecasting model. Tempting though it may be to take the model as a sign of Batman’s return, Pomeroy rightly chalks its resemblance up to pareidolia…”

Mondays are Tough Enough. At least the sun was out (as it is on most of our coldest days). After a morning low of -6 Alexandria only struggled to 7 for a high. Statewide  highs ranged from 10 at St. Cloud to 14 in the Twin Cities and Eau Claire. MSP is reporting only a trace of snow, 4″ up at St. Cloud.

Paul’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:



TODAY: Partly sunny, not as harsh. Temperatures close to normal. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 23 TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds, flurries possible – rising temperatures overnight. Low: 20

WEDNESDAY: Next clipper. Clouds and flurries. Coating? High: 33

THURSDAY: Thinking warm thoughts. Cold sun. Wake-up: 5. High: 19

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, thawing out! Wake-up: 22. High: 35

SATURDAY: Snow possible (heaviest northern MN). Turning windy and colder later in the day. Wake-up: 20. High: 30

SUNDAY: Sunny, feels like -15. Wake-up: 0. High: 3

MONDAY: Coldest air of winter? Snow tapers (light, fluffy accumulation possible). Wake-up: -7. High: 2 TUESDAY: Bitterly cold with blue sky – dangerous wind chills. Possibly the coldest day of winter. Low: -12. High: -7

Climate Stories…

Debunking The Denial: “16 Years Of No Global Warming”. Here’s an excerpt from Slate: “The difficulties in debunking blatant antireality are legion. You can make up any old nonsense and state it in a few seconds, but it takes much longer to show why it’s wrong and how things really are. This is coupled with how sticky bunk can be. Once uttered, it’s out there, bootstrapping its own reality, getting repeated by the usual suspects. Case in point: The claim that there’s been no global warming for the past 16 years. This is blatantly untrue, a ridiculous and obviously false statement. But I see it over and again online, in Op Eds, and in comments to climate change posts…”

More Detail On “No Warming In 16 Years Meme”. The key is to look at the true global temperature trend, subtracting out other forcings like volcanic eruptions, solar variations and La Nina and El Nino. John Cook at Skeptical Science has a great YouTube clip that explains this in detail.

Federal Climate Report Predicts Spike In Hot Days For Washington D.C. By Mid-Century. Our nation’s capital, which is already “stinking-hot” most summers, may become even more inflamed by the middle of the 21st century. The Capital Gang’s Jason Samenow reports: ”Washington, D.C. just experienced its warmest year on record, and its three hottest summers in as many years. The message from the draft of a newly released federal report? Get used to it. The draft National Climate Assessment (NCA) posted Friday afternoon says the punishing, record-setting streak of 11 straight days above 95 D.C. experienced last summer is exactly the kind of event that may occur with increasing regularity in the future…”

Map credit above: “Increase in number of days above 95 degrees by mid-century (2041-2070 compared to 1971-2000) under high emissions scenario.” (NCA)

Clearing The Air On Oilsands Emissions. What to believe about the proposed Keystone Pipeline and it’s impact on greenhouse gas emissions? Here’s an excerpt of a good overview from The Pembina Institute: “This backgrounder provides an overview of how oilsands production and expansion contributes to greenhouse gas pollution and climate change, focusing on six key issues:

• Average oilsands production is significantly more greenhouse gas-intensive than conventional oil production.
• Oilsands are the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions in Canada.
• Alberta’s greenhouse gas regulations do not result in meaningful reductions in emissions from oilsands operations.
• Large-scale carbon capture and storage for oilsands emissions is unlikely due to high capital cost and lack of regulatory driver...”

Photo credit above: ”In this Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2012 file photo, miles of pipe ready to become part of the Keystone Pipeline are stacked in a field near Ripley, Okla. The controversy over the pipeline in the hub of Oklahoma’s oil activity, was voted the number nine story of the state for 2012.” (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki, File) Geology.com has another good primer on oil sands here.

Climate Change Measures: Report Praises Politicians. This may be so in other countries around the planet, but here in the USA? You’d be hard-pressed to find many politicians to praise on this topic these days. The BBC reports: ”Politicians are doing more to combat climate change than they are given credit for, according to a report. It says 32 out of 33 countries surveyed have introduced, or are producing, significant climate-related laws. Out of these, 18 nations are making “significant” progress, with some emerging economies taking a lead. The Globe group of parliamentarians, which published the report, admits that emissions are still growing at a dangerous level. But Globe president John Gummer, the former Environment Secretary, says progress on a national level gives some cause for optimism. “The tide is beginning to turn decisively on tackling climate change, the defining material challenge of this century,” he said…”

Extreme Weather Map 2011. A friend forwarded me this link and timelapse animation from NRDC, the Natural Resources Defense Council – looking back at 2011, possibly the most extreme year for U.S. weather since the early 1800′s. Here’s an excerpt: “Climate change increases the risk of record-breaking extreme weather events that threaten communities across the country. In 2011, there were 3,251 monthly weather records broken by extreme events that struck communities in the US. Check out the interactive map below to find out what events hit your area.”
Minnesota experienced in 2011:

• Record-breaking heat in 13 counties and a total of 16 broken heat records
• Record-breaking rainfall in 21 counties and a total of 34 broken rainfall records
• Record-breaking snow in 16 counties and a total of 21 broken snowfall records
• Extreme flooding

Climate Change Fuels Wildfires Around The World. Deutsche Welle has a story focused on the link between climate extremes (hot, dry areas becoming even hotter and drier) and the potential for major wildfires; here’s an excerpt: ”Every year, large areas of the Earth’s surface burn, and the number of fires is increasing. Is climate change fanning the flames? Or are the fires making climate change worse? The climate is complex. It is so complex that it’s difficult for researchers to give accurate climate forecasts because it is so heavily influenced by external factors – solar radiation, greenhouse gasses and oceans. Another factor, which has been largely ignored until now, is fire. Only recently have experts realized that large forest and bush fires are noticeably changing the climate while being affected by it. “Every year, more than 400 million acres (160 million hectares) are burnt. That’s an area bigger than the size of India,” says Silvia Kloster from the Max Plank Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg…” (Image credit: Minnesota DNR).

Climate Change Study: Emission Limits Could Avoid Damage By Two-Thirds. Here’s the intro to a story from Reuters and Huffington Post: ”The world could avoid much of the damaging effects of climate change this century if greenhouse gas emissions are curbed more sharply, research showed on Sunday. The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, is the first comprehensive assessment of the benefits of cutting emissions to keep the global temperature rise to within 2 degrees Celsius by 2100, a level which scientists say would avoid the worst effects of climate change. It found 20 to 65 percent of the adverse impacts by the end of this century could be avoided. “Our research clearly identifies the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions – less severe impacts on flooding and crops are two areas of particular benefit,” said Nigel Arnell, director of the University of Reading’s Walker Institute, which led the study…”

Read More

2 F. low temperature Sunday morning in the Twin Cities. 9 F. high temperature yesterday. 23 F. average high for January 13. 13 F. high on January 13, 2012. Trace of snow flurries yesterday 0″ snow cover (officially at MSP International Airport in Richfield).

Earmuffs Optional Unless you’re a wayward snowbird, ready & willing to hop the next flight south, chances are you’ve developed defensive maneuvers, COPING SKILLS, when the coldest winds of winter howl into town. Although it makes me look like Princess Leia (on a very bad day) earmuffs work wonders. When your ears, neck & toes are toasty – you’re a step ahead. Undershirts, wearing socks to bed, and remote car starters are all a Godsend when the mercury flirts with zero. Welcome to The Tundra: highs near 10 F. today, but a brief thaw is still expected midweek. Next weekend looks tolerable (20s), maybe a couple inches of snow late Sunday as Nanook air drills south of the border. A week from today we’ll be feeling the burn again, a couple degrees colder than today, but not even close to record-setting. Long range guidance shows the brunt of bitter air pouring into the Great Lakes and New England within 1-2 weeks, grazing Minnesota with a couple nights below zero. This may be the worst of it. Then again I am a naive optimist. My blog includes freeze warnings for Phoenix (we feel their pain huh?) and mounting evidence that dry weather (low dew points) may be a factor in the spread of the flu.

Why Most People Are Scared Of Minnesota. Today should be the coldest day of the week, highs near 10 (but the sun should be out, thank God). We warm up into the low 30s Wednesday morning before another wave of Canadian air pushes south, but next weekend looks reasonable/tolerable, with highs in the 20s, pretty close to average for mid-January. A coating of snow is possible Wednesday into Friday; a stronger clipper marking the leading edge of what may be the coldest air of winter setting off a couple inches late Sunday? Stay tuned. ECMWF highs above in Celsius.

Snowfall By Midday Friday. A series of clippers may drop a few inches of new snow on northern and northeastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin this week; maybe an inch for the north metro.

January Golf. My father sent me this photo from Bent Creek Golf Course in beautiful Lancaster County, Pennsylvania yesterday. Golf on January 13? Check out how green the greens were. Highs were stuck near 50, with 60s just south over Maryland and Washington D.C. Big changes on the way later this week though. Thanks Dad.

Windchill In Los Angeles. We certainly feel their pain, don’t we? Cue the crickets. The NWS map above shows observed daytime highs yesterday in the L.A. basin, mostly mid-50s, but 20s and 30s in the mountains north and east of the metro area. All those partially-frostbitten actors and actresses. Tragic.

Freeze Warnings For Phoenix. The Germans have a word for this: “schadenfreude“. Many of us have friends and family in Arizona. Hmm. I realize the weather drifting over our heads is no treat, but today might be a great day to call, text, tweet or e-mail that special someone in Scottsdale – the one who’s always bragging about how great the weather is down there. Do it.

Looks Like Winter. “Grandpa Wally” snapped this photo up in Crosby, North Dakota, where nearly a foot of wind-whipped snow fell Friday.

Snowy Work Of Art. Matt Dux, down at the Kansas City, Missouri office of the National Weather Service, captured this remarkable photo of snowflake over the weekend. Nicely done.

Sun Pillar. Thanks to WeatherNation TV meteorologist Todd Nelson who captured this shot of a “sun pillar” near his home in St. Michael.

Paul’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TODAY: One of the colder days of winter. A cold blue sky. Winds: W 5-10. High: 10 MONDAY NIGHT: Clear to partly cloudy. Low: 6

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, average temps. High: 24

WEDNESDAY: Brief thaw, coating of flakes? Wake-up Low: 19. High: 33

THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Wake-up Low: 11. High: 19

FRIDAY: Patchy clouds, few flurries. Wake-up Low: 10. High: 23

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy – better travel day. Wake-up Low: 13. High: 26

SUNDAY: Period of snow late? Some accumulation possible. Wake-up Low: 11. High: 21 Low Monday morning: 2 * my hunch is that the first few days of next week may wind up being the coldest of winter, with highs from 0 to 5 F, lows dipping into the -5 to -10 F. range for a few nights.

Climate Stories…

China, Mexico Leading Fight On Climate Change With New CO2 Laws. Bloomberg News has the story; here’s an excerpt: “China, Mexico and other emerging economies are leading the fight against climate change by passing laws to cut carbon and raise energy efficiency, the Globe International alliance of lawmakers said today. A study of energy and climate laws in 33 economies showed 18 made “significant” progress in 2012, Globe said today in an e-mailed statement. The alliance, which brings together lawmakers from 70 nations, is meeting in London today and tomorrow to discuss ways in which governments can contribute to the international effort to contain global warming. “This is a game-changing development, driven by emerging economies,” said John Gummer, president of the group and a member of the U.K. upper chamber known as the House of Lords. “The tide is beginning to turn decisively on tackling climate change…”

Let’s Do The Right Thing By Our Kids And Our Planet. Here’s a portion of an Op-Ed at The Australian: ”ATTEMPTS to link the frequency of extreme weather events such as this week’s catastrophic bushfire conditions with climate change are usually greeted with derision. But this time it’s highly reputable scientists who are making the link. We should take notice. Pointing out this week that Australia’s heatwave is unprecedented since records have been kept, the Bureau of Meteorology has concluded that the climate system is responding to a background warming trend. It says it doesn’t make sense to try to disentangle it from climate change. The US has just experienced its hottest year on record, with NASA concluding that “there is virtually no explanation other than climate change” for the extreme hot weather of America’s recent past…”

Heatwave Exacerbated By Climate Change: Climate Commission. More fallout from historic levels of heat in Australia this month. Here’s an excerpt of a story from ABC Radio Australia: ”A new report from the Federal Government’s Climate Commission says the heatwave and bushfires that have affected Australia this week have been exacerbated by global warming. The report – Off the Charts: Extreme Australian Summer Heat – warns of more extreme bushfires and hotter, longer, bigger and more frequent heatwaves, due to climate change. It says the number of record heat days across Australia has doubled since 1960 and more temperature records are likely to be broken as hot conditions continue this summer...”

Photo credit above: ”In this Jan. 4, 2013, photo provided by the Holmes family, Tammy Holmes, second from left, and her grandchildren, two-year-old Charlotte Walker, left, four-year-old Esther Walker, third from left, nine-year-old Liam Walker, eleven-year-old Matilda, second from right, and six-year-old Caleb Walker, right, take refuge under a jetty as a wildfire rages near-by in the Tasmanian town of Dunalley, east of the state capital of Hobart, Australia. The family credits God with their survival from the fire that destroyed around 90 homes in Dunalley. Record temperatures across southern Australia cooled Wednesday, Jan. 9, 2013, reducing the danger from scores of raging wildfires but likely bringing only a brief reprieve from the summer’s extreme heat and fire risk.” (AP Photo/Holmes Family, Tim Holmes)

Read More

40 F. high on Saturday (shortly after midnight – a bit misleading).

14 F. afternoon “high” yesterday at KMSP.
23 F. average high for January 12.
14 F. high on January 12, 2012.

Trace of snow flurries yesterday.
16.8″ snow so far this winter in the metro. That’s 9.8″ less than average, to date.

0″ snow on the ground in the Twin Cities.
 

Freeze Dried We can’t seem to beg, borrow or buy a snowstorm, but can I interest you in some ice? I have plenty in my yard; the once-snowy lake nearby now a pale-blue super-sized frozen Slushie. Last week added insult to injury for snow lovers: the thaw coupled with 30s & 40s brought our official snow cover down to an inch. Snowfall for the winter season is nearly 10 inches below average, to date. That snow drought I talked about weeks ago is hanging tough. Nothing resembling a “storm” is showing up on the maps looking out 2 weeks. And this might be a good time to cash in some frequent flier miles. Imagine bitter air approaching from Canada as a small inland ocean of subzero air. It won’t all sweep south at once – waves or “pulses” of numbing air expanding and contracting, like the sea at high tide. This week will be cold enough, but we thaw out (briefly) Wednesday, again Saturday.Models seem to be crystallizing, with the coldest air of winter grazing Minnesota next week. In fact a week from today highs may struggle to reach zero. Freeze dried indeed. Look at the bright side (literally): 20 minutes of additional daylight since Dec. 21. In 2 weeks average temperatures rise again!  

The First Wave. No, this isn’t the real cold front. Not yet. Think of this as the Opening Act. The Main Event comes next week – probably the coldest week of winter. All the models warm us up a little by midweek; 30s by Wednesday will feel oh so good.
 

Not For The Meteorologically Timid. ECMWF (European) model guidance confirms a midweek thaw (40 not out of the question) then colder by late week before another, smaller upward blip in temperatures by Saturday. The Mother Lode of cold air may brush Minnesota early next week, in fact the predicted high a week from tomorrow is -4 F. We don’t have much snow on the ground, which will moderate the bitter air a bit, but there’s little doubt that next week will be very good for travel agents.
 

Coldest Cold Front of Winter? I may be jumping the gun. It’s entirely possible the core of the coldest air won’t drain south until the very end of January or even the first week of February, but my gut (nausea?) is telling me that next week may be the worst of it. Any time 850 mb temperatures are forecast to dip to -25 C or colder you know you’re in for a spell of negative numbers.

125 Years Ago Deadly “Children’s Blizzard” Blasted Minnesota. It wasn’t Minnesota’s worst blizzard, but it was our deadliest, for a variety of reasons documented in this excellent article at MinnPost.com. Here’s an excerpt: “…Climate historians are quick to note that the “Children’s Blizzard” — so named because many of the victims were schoolkids trying to make it home — was not the most extreme blizzard ever to strike Minnesota. But 125 years later, it remains the most deadly, due to a tragic swirl of circumstances. The storm’s ambush approach in the middle of an afternoon, the lack of warning from the Army Signal Corps, and the mild, January thaw-like morning were all factors that conspired to kill with maximum efficiency. Minnesota, too, was populated like never before, but many of her new homes and schoolhouses were hastily built affairs at best, with gap-holed walls and tar paper roofs, thrown up in the break-neck excitement of westward settlement. The storm happened at the tail-end of a six-year run of extreme weather called the “Little Ice Age.”…

Photo credit above: “Nobles County native Morton Bassett: “It was a beautiful day for mid-winter and no one even thought of what a change an hour’s time could bring.” Courtesy: Minnesota Historical Society.

Tracking The Trends. No, it’s not getting as cold as it did 30-50 years ago. Yesterday’s blog had details of a consistent warming trend (the map above showing the coldest nighttime lows at MSP every winter as tracked by investment banker and rose enthusiast Jack Falker in Edina). Today I expand on this, including looking at heating degree day data from the NWS – via YouTube.

Experts Divided On Weather And Flu Link. Here’s a story that made me do a triple-take: could unusually dry weather help to trigger (or amplify) the flu? The Capital Weather Gang takes a look – here’s an excerpt: ”…Rather than cold weather, it may be dry weather which can help predict flu outbreaks. In 2010, Jeffrey Shaman and colleagues published research showing flu outbreaks often occurred immediately following a dry spell. “This dry period is not a requirement for triggering an influenza outbreak, but it was present in 55 to 60 percent of the outbreaks we analyzed so it appears to increase the likelihood of an outbreak,” Shaman told Health magazine. “The virus response is almost immediate; transmission and survival rates increase and about 10 days later, the observed influenza mortality rates follow.…”

Flu Myths: 7 Common Beliefs, Busted. Here’s an interesting angle on the flu (epidemic) from Huffington Post: “As we face one of the earliest — and most deadly — flu outbreak in years, many are flooding emergency rooms and scrambling to get vaccinated. (Speaking of which, it’s not too late! Vaccinating in the fall, before flu season really kicks off, is most effective, but experts still recommend getting the vaccine now.) A crucial part of staying healthy — this flu season and beyond — is staying informed. Click through the slideshow below to get the truth behind some of the most common myths about the flu…”

Heat, Flood Or Icy Cold. Extreme Weather Rages Worldwide. Here’s an excerpt of a New York Times story: ”Brush fires are raging across Australia, fueled by a record-shattering heat wave. Pakistan was inundated by unexpected flooding in September. A vicious storm bringing rain, snow and floods just struck the Middle East. And in the United States, scientists confirmed this week what people could have figured out simply by going outside: last year was the hottest since records began. “Each year we have extreme weather, but it’s unusual to have so many extreme events around the world at once,” said Omar Baddour, chief of the data management applications division at the World Meteorological Organization, in Geneva. “The heat wave in Australia; the flooding in the U.K., and most recently the flooding and extensive snowstorm in the Middle East — it’s already a big year in terms of extreme weather calamity.”

Global temperature extreme map above courtesy of Ham Weather.

USDA Declares 597 U.S. Counties Drought Disaster Areas. Here’s the introduction to a story from The Guardian Express: “U. S. Agriculture Sec. Tom Vilsack indicated that the United States Department of Agriculture has designated 597 counties in the United States as primary natural disaster areas due to extended drought and heat. This designation makes all qualified farm operators in these areas eligible for low-interest emergency loans. This is just the 1st round of disaster designations made by the US Department of Agriculture in 2013. “As drought persists, the USDA will continue to partner with producers to see them through longer-term recovery, while taking this with actions needed to help farmers and ranchers prepare their land and operations for the upcoming planting season,” said Sec. Vilsack….”

* the latest U.S. Drought Monitor is here.

USDA’s Final Crop Report For 2012 Shows Farmers Lost About Quarter Of Corn To Ongoing Drought. The Star Tribune has details – here’s an excerpt: “The federal government released its final crop report for 2012 on Friday, detailing heavy losses caused by the worst drought the U.S. has experienced since the 1950s. Much of the attention focused on corn, which is widely used as an ingredient in many foods and as feed for livestock. Farmers produced less than three-fourths of the corn the U.S. Department of Agriculture anticipated when planting was done in the spring. The year-end report shows a harvest of 10.78 billion bushels, 27 percent less than the agency’s initial estimate of 14.8 billion bushels. The harvest, however, was still one of the largest in U.S. history. Farmers say better crop technology that improved the ability of corn to withstand drought saved them from more devastating losses, and production was helped by the large number of acres planted this year…”

Parts Of Twin Cities Metro In USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5. As I mentioned in yesterday’s blog (courtesy of Jack Falker in Edina) our warming climate means that things are growing here that weren’t growing here a generation ago. Click here to see the latest USA map, courtesy of thebiopod.com.

Crazy Weather Down Under. Check out the “haboob” images from Australia – and harrowing stories of entire families leaping into nearby lakes to escape flames and “fire tornadoes”. These are a few of the symptoms of the worst heat on record for Australia and Tasmania – details via YouTube.

Technicolor Sunset. Thanks to Timothy Butz, who snapped this photo near his home in Ellicott City, Maryland, where temperatures may reach the 60s and 70s tomorrow. By the end of next week the wind chill may approach zero in this area. Enjoy the (fleeting) thaw!

The McMansion Of Tablets. I’m feeling a little insecure about my tablet right now, after getting a glimpse of this one, courtesy of gizmag.com: “Panasonic might be getting outshined a little at CES 2013 as competitors like LG and Samsung show off their unique takes on 4K-resolution TVs, but that doesn’t mean it didn’t find its own creative use for 4K technology. On the show floor, the company demoed a new 20-inch tablet that runs Windows 8 on a 4K resolution ISP-alpha display…”

Goosebumps (and goosebulges). What a mixed up Saturday; the high coming around midnight, and then temperatures fell like a rock behind a vigorous cold front – falling thru the teens by afternoon statewide. International Falls picked up nearly 2″ of new snow (11″ on the ground). Duluth and St. Cloud report 4″ of (gently used) snow on the ground.

Paul’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:



TODAY: Mix of clouds & sun. Wind chill: -10. Winds: NW 10+ High: 11 SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low: 5

MONDAY: Bright sun, brisk. Light winds. High: 15

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, not as cold. Low: 10. High: 26

WEDNESDAY: Early thaw, then turning colder. Low: 18. High: 33

THURSDAY: Bright sun, numbing again. Low: 5. High: 12

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, flurries north. Low: 7. High: 17

SATURDAY: Brief reprieve, colder PM wind. Low: 10. High: 31

Climate Stories…

“Average U.S. temperatures have risen roughly 1.5 degrees F since 1895, and more than 80 percent of that increase has occurred since 1980, the report concludes.” – excerpt of a story at The Hill
.

Impact Of Climate Change Hitting Home, U.S. Report Finds. Climate scientists have been saying this for 10-15 years or longer, and now it’s dawning on most Americans that, yes, maybe something has changed. Here’s an excerpt from Reuters: “The consequences of climate change are now hitting the United States on several fronts, including health, infrastructure, water supply, agriculture and especially more frequent severe weather, a congressionally mandated study has concluded. A draft of the U.S. National Climate Assessment, released on Friday, said observable change to the climate in the past half-century “is due primarily to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuel,” and that no areas of the United States were immune to change. “Corn producers in Iowa, oyster growers in Washington State, and maple syrup producers in Vermont have observed changes in their local climate that are outside of their experience,” the report said...”

Climate Change Set To Make America Hotter, Drier And More Disaster-Prone. More details on the latest U.S. National Climate Assessment from the U.K. Guardian: “Future generations of Americans can expect to spend 25 days a year sweltering in temperatures above 100F (38C), with climate change on course to turn the country into a hotter, drier, and more disaster-prone place. The National Climate Assessment, released in draft form on Friday , provided the fullest picture to date of the real-time effects of climate change on US life, and the most likely consequences for the future. The 1,000-page report, the work of the more than 300 government scientists and outside experts, was unequivocal on the human causes of climate change, and on the links between climate change and extreme weather. “Climate change is already affecting the American people,” the draft report said…”

Photo credit above: “The report says steps taken by Obama to reduce emissions are ‘not close to sufficient’ to prevent the most severe consequences of climate change.” Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP

Reports Says Warming Is Changing U.S. Daily Life. Here’s more on the 1,146 page draft climate assessment report in an excerpt from Huffington Post Tech: “…”Human-induced climate change means much more than just hotter weather,” the report says, listing rising-seas, downpours, melting glaciers and permafrost, and worsening storms. “These changes and other climatic changes have affected and will continue to affect human health, water supply, agriculture, transportation, energy, and many other aspects of society.” The report uses the word “threat” or variations of it 198 times and versions of the word “disrupt” another 120 times. If someone were to list every aspect of life changed or likely to be altered from global warming, it would easily be more than 100, said two of the report’s authors…”

Dear Mr. President: Time To Deal With Climate Change. Here’s a snippet of an article at MIT Technology Review; a direct appeal from the editors of this leading publication to President Obama: “…Renewable energy sources, like solar and advanced biofuels, are simply not yet ready to compete with fossil fuels. Solar power, for example, still generates less than 1 percent of our nation’s electricity and, under most circumstances, remains much more expensive than electricity generated from fossil fuels. We need new and far more advanced technologies. Creating cleaner ways to produce energy will require inventions in physics and chemistry labs and innovations in how we scale up and test those inventions. And it will require market incentives, such as a tax or some other price on carbon dioxide emissions, to encourage consumers and industry to use clean energy…” (Photo credit: Think Progress).

National Climate Assessment Details Stronger Evidence Of Global Warming And Its Impacts. Huffington Post provides more perspective on changes that are already showing up. We’ve gone from theory to reality: “…Summers are longer and hotter, and periods of extreme heat last longer than any living American has ever experienced. Winters are generally shorter and warmer. Rain comes in heavier downpours, though in many regions there are longer dry spells in between. Other changes are even more dramatic. Residents of some coastal cities see their streets flood more regularly during storms and high tides. Inland cities near large rivers also experience more flooding, especially in the Midwest and Northeast. Hotter and drier weather and earlier snow melt mean that wildfires in the West start earlier in the year, last later into the fall, threaten more homes, cause more evacuations, and burn more acreage….”

Global Warming Skeptics: What Do They Have To Fear? Here’s an excerpt of a story at Christian Science Monitor that caught my eye: “For one, climate skeptics fear that people who are not qualified to opine on the complex topic of energy production may cripple economies with assorted misguided energy related boondoggles. Is that a realistic concern? What are the odds? I’m going to argue here that the odds are not zero. I offer as anecdotal evidence, the above video Debating The New Environmentalism hosted by Bryan Walsh, which I will eventually parse below. Interestingly enough, all three participants are wearing nearly identical shirts. Only Bill McKibben thought to wear his red power tie…”

Climate Change May Have Confused, Trapped Killer Whales. You may have heard about this story on Hudson Bay, which froze up unusually late this year. Voice of America reports: ”A pod of killer whales trapped in the ice of Canada’s Hudson Bay successfully has left the small opening where they were gasping for breath, but marine specialists say global warming could cause more incidents like this. Lyne Morissette, a marine researcher with the St. Lawrence Global Observatory in Quebec, said the 12 orcas may simply have gotten lost while hunting for seals and other food, but it’s more likely they got stuck in the ice because of climate change. “They tend to base their migration on temperature, but based on the fact that temperature is changing in the Arctic, and the water is warmer, maybe they didn’t get the signal,” she said...”

Your Weatherman Probably Denies Global Warming. Yes, I know a few deniers in town, but this particular weatherman does not deny the science. Who else in town has been talking about this, publically, for over 15 years? Here’s an excerpt from salon.com: “…For instance, when it comes to weather forecasters, a recent Rolling Stone magazine assessment of the local news scene found that “there’s a shockingly high chance that your friendly TV weatherman is a full-blown climate denier.” The report cited a 2010 survey finding that in the vast wasteland of Ron Burgundys, only half of all local weather forecasters believe climate change is even happening, and fewer than a third acknowledge the scientific evidence proving that it is “caused mostly by human activities.” Not surprisingly, their forecasts often omit any discussion of climate change’s effect on the weather systems, thus forfeiting a chance to properly contextualize severe weather events…”

Effects Of Climate Change Will Be Felt More Deeply In Decades Ahead, Draft Report Says. The Washington Post has some breaking (climate) news; here’s an excerpt: “…The report’s executive summary states that not only have extreme weather and climate events become more frequent in recent years, “there is new and stronger evidence that many of these increases are related to human activities.” The report adds that these changes are exacting an economic toll on infrastructure across the country; it also identifies specific vulnerabilities in the Washington region, such as the Chesapeake Bay, which it said was threatened by changing land use patterns and the changing climate. Virginia Beach ranks among the nation’s “most vulnerable port cities,” according to the assessment, after Miami, the New York City area, New Orleans and Tampa-St. Petersburg….”

Photo credit: Washington Post. You can access the Draft Climate Assessment Report here (series of large PDF files).

Report: Climate Change Triggers Extreme Weather Events. Politico has the story; here’s the introduction: “Human activities play a primary role in causing climate change, and evidence is mounting that those changes will lead to more frequent extreme weather events, according to a major draft report that will be released later Friday. The draft of the third National Climate Assessment comes as the Northeast continues to recover from devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy and just days after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said 2012 was the hottest year on record in the contiguous United States. The draft report, which runs more than 1,000 pages and was approved for release Friday by a federal advisory committee, warns that “human induced climate change is projected to continue and accelerate significantly if emissions of heat trapping gases continue to increase…” (photo credit: AP).
 

Climate Change Doesn’t Have To Mean The End Of The World. Here’s an excerpt of a story at The Atlantic: “This week the National Climate Data Center confirmed what most had long believed: 2012 was the warmest year on record for the United States. Ever. And not just a bit warmer: a full Fahrenheit degree warmer than in 1998, the previous high. In the land of climatology statistics, that is immense. In the understatement of one climate scientist, these findings are “a big deal.” Almost every news story reporting on this juxtaposed the record with a series of disruptive climate events, ranging from the drought that covered much of the United States farmland and punctuated by Hurricane Sandy in its tens of billions of dollars of devastation. Many also pointed out that eight of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 1990 (though it should be noted that official records only extend to 1895). Not surprisingly, these observations were almost always followed by warnings of more warming and substantially worse consequences to come…”

Photo credit above: Reuters.

NASA Proves Global Warming Changes From Above. Here’s a clip from The Guardian Express: “Starting this month, NASA will send a remotely piloted research aircraft as high as 65,000 feet over the tropical Pacific Ocean to probe unexplored regions of the upper atmosphere for answers to how a warming climate is changing Earth. The first flights of the Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX), a multi-year airborne science campaign with a heavily instrumented Global Hawk aircraft, will take off from and be operated by NASA’s Dryden Flight Research Center atEdwards Air Force Base in California. The Global Hawk is able to make 30-hour flights. Water vapor and ozone in the stratosphere can have a large impact on Earth’s climate. The processes that drive the rise and fall of these compounds, especially water vapor, are not well understood…”

Hot Enough For You? Here’s a portion of an Op-Ed from Eugene Robinson at The Washington Post: “…So we’re going to deal with climate change whether we like it or not. We’re going to spend many billions of dollars over the coming years providing disaster relief in the wake of hurricanes and other destructive weather events. If we’re a bit smarter, we’ll spend even more to protect our coastal cities from storm surges of the kind that devastated parts of New York. Investment in barriers and floodwalls will ultimately save both money and lives. But if we were really smart, we’d be talking about how to mitigate the ultimate damage by weaning ourselves from coal, oil and other energy sources that produce carbon emissions. We see what looks like disaster looming but don’t even talk about it, because the politics of climate change are inconvenient. Future generations will curse our silence.”

How American Cities Are Adapting To Climate Change. Think Progress has a story about how cities are taking the lead on mitigating climate change – also hardening infrastructure to make the symptoms of a warmer atmosphere (more extreme heat and rainfall) less damaging: “A new report by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives highlights twenty local government across the country that are taking the initiative to combat global warming. The report follows up an earlier survey ICLEI did of 298 American cities, which found that 74 percent had perceived changes in the climate — including increased storm intensity, higher temperatures, and more precipitation. Almost two-thirds are pursuing adaptation planning for climate change, compared to 68 percent globally, and virtually all U.S. cities report difficulties acquiring funding for adaptation efforts. (Only Latin American cities reported similar levels of difficulty.) And over one-third of U.S. cities said the federal government does not understand the realities of climate change adaptation…”

Fox News Questions Whether Government Faked Hottest Year On Record. O.K. Time to put on your tin-foil hat and hold hands with some anti-science conspiracy theorists. These people need new hobbies. Here’s an excerpt from Media Matters: “A Fox News.com article questioned whether 2012 was actually the hottest year on record, quoting “skeptics” who suggest a government office is manipulating data to fabricate proof of rising temperatures. In fact, statistical adjustments made by the agency are required, publicly-documented changes to correct for errors and known sources of bias in the raw data. In January, the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) announced that 2012 was the hottest year on record in the contiguous U.S. – an announcement that Fox News ignored until one of Fox News’ few liberal commentators, Bob Beckel, tried to bring it up on The Five. Soon after, FoxNews.com reporter Maxim Lott solicited the views of a few professional climate “skeptics” to claim that scientists made unjustified data adjustments to exaggerate 2012′s heat…”

Explained In 90 Seconds: What Is Climate Change Doing To El Nino? Here’s a snippet of a very interesting story (and video clip) from Mother Jones: “…For the past seven years, Cobb and her lab team have been recontructing the history of El Niño events across several millenia by taking core samples from corals in the Pacific. That process has uncovered reams of fresh climate data. And it’s within this new, longer baseline of temperatures from the tropical Pacific that Cobb spotted something surprising: “The 20th century is significantly, statistically stronger in its El Niño Southern Oscillation activity than this long, baseline average,” Cobb says. El Niño events have gotten worse.That led Cobb to wonder: Is man-made climate change, and the level of carbon in the atmosphere, shifting in El Niño events along with it? Or should we chalk it up to coincidence?…”

Read More

40 F. high in the Twin Cities yesterday (as of 9 pm).
23 F. average high on January 11.
38 F. high on January 11, 2012.

.25″ rain fell yesterday.

Trace of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities.

30-40 mph wind gusts today.

-5 to -10 F. wind chill by Sunday morning.

Glass Half Full Have a friend or family member you’re trying to coax back to Minnesota? Here’s my spiel to new, fresh-faced meteorologists wavering at the thought of living on The Tundra: “Winters aren’t what they used to be; Old Man Winter has lost a few teeth. Yes, it still gets cold, but our nippiest days tend to be sunny, which helps. Humidity levels are low. 15 F in Minnesota is tolerable. 15 F. in Chicago, Boston or Manhattan is miserable, because you’re surrounded by water, with high humidity levels that allow the chill to penetrate your clothing faster. That, and everyone has their own lake.” It’s worth a shot. Rain, less than a week from what is historically the coldest weather of the year is a bit unnerving. According to climate guru Mark Seeley roughly 40 percent of Januaries in the last 20 years have seen some rain in the Twin Cities. The coldest airmass of winter will spill south of the border, coming in waves. This weekend is the chilled appetizer. The main course, with a few subzero nights, arrives late next week – but no sustained subzero weather. Hey, it’s January. I’m worried about drought. The USDA has designated 597 counties in 14 states “Drought Disaster Areas”.

Cold, But Not Subzero. All the models show a (big) temperature tumble today, readings dropping 35 degrees in less than 24 hours, whipping up 20-40 mph winds that will create a wind chill below zero by tonight. Readings thaw out by Wednesday before a second wave of cold air comes south of the border.
 

Looks LIke January. Daytime highs range from 10-15 today, Sunday and Monday, again late next week and next weekend. I still suspect the next 2-3 weeks will be the coldest of the winter. Not record-setting, but a rude reminder that the latter half of January often brings the coldest outbreaks of winter. No kidding.
 

Not Out Of The (Numbing) Woods Just Yet. My confidence level in the GFS model is low. I’m including this to show you (Exhibit A) how frustrating it can be tracking weather 1-2 weeks out. The GFS has a history of hinting at bitter cold, and then pulling back from the abyss with the core of the most bitter air tracking just north. We will be close to the Mother Lode of negative numbers, so all bets are off. A few rounds of bitter air are likely, but I still don’t expect record cold.

How Unusual Is Rain In January? It’s actually more common than you might think. Here’s an excerpt of Dr. Mark Seeley’s WeatherTalk Newsletter with details: “In the past 20 years there have been eight Januarys that have produced at least one day with only liquid precipitation (rain) and no sleet, snow, or freezing rain. In 1997 and 2006 there were two rain events in January. So an estimate is that about 40 percent of the time we see a rain event in January for the Twin Cities.” (photo: NOAA).

Tracking The Trends. No, it’s not getting as cold as it did 30-50 years ago. Yesterday’s blog had details of a consistent warming trend (the map above showing the coldest nighttime lows at MSP every winter as tracked by investment banker and rose enthusiast Jack Falker in Edina). Today I expand on this, including looking at heating degree day data from the NWS – via YouTube.

Flu Myths: 7 Common Beliefs, Busted. Here’s an interesting angle on the flu (epidemic) from Huffington Post: “As we face one of the earliest — and most deadly — flu outbreak in years, many are flooding emergency rooms and scrambling to get vaccinated. (Speaking of which, it’s not too late! Vaccinating in the fall, before flu season really kicks off, is most effective, but experts still recommend getting the vaccine now.) A crucial part of staying healthy — this flu season and beyond — is staying informed. Click through the slideshow below to get the truth behind some of the most common myths about the flu…”

Heat, Flood Or Icy Cold. Extreme Weather Rages Worldwide. Here’s an excerpt of a New York Times story: ”Brush fires are raging across Australia, fueled by a record-shattering heat wave. Pakistan was inundated by unexpected flooding in September. A vicious storm bringing rain, snow and floods just struck the Middle East. And in the United States, scientists confirmed this week what people could have figured out simply by going outside: last year was the hottest since records began. “Each year we have extreme weather, but it’s unusual to have so many extreme events around the world at once,” said Omar Baddour, chief of the data management applications division at the World Meteorological Organization, in Geneva. “The heat wave in Australia; the flooding in the U.K., and most recently the flooding and extensive snowstorm in the Middle East — it’s already a big year in terms of extreme weather calamity.”

Global temperature extreme map above courtesy of Ham Weather.

USDA Declares 597 U.S. Counties Drought Disaster Areas. Here’s the introduction to a story from The Guardian Express: “U. S. Agriculture Sec. Tom Vilsack indicated that the United States Department of Agriculture has designated 597 counties in the United States as primary natural disaster areas due to extended drought and heat. This designation makes all qualified farm operators in these areas eligible for low-interest emergency loans. This is just the 1st round of disaster designations made by the US Department of Agriculture in 2013. “As drought persists, the USDA will continue to partner with producers to see them through longer-term recovery, while taking this with actions needed to help farmers and ranchers prepare their land and operations for the upcoming planting season,” said Sec. Vilsack….”

* the latest U.S. Drought Monitor is here.

USDA’s Final Crop Report For 2012 Shows Farmers Lost About Quarter Of Corn To Ongoing Drought. The Star Tribune has details – here’s an excerpt: “The federal government released its final crop report for 2012 on Friday, detailing heavy losses caused by the worst drought the U.S. has experienced since the 1950s. Much of the attention focused on corn, which is widely used as an ingredient in many foods and as feed for livestock. Farmers produced less than three-fourths of the corn the U.S. Department of Agriculture anticipated when planting was done in the spring. The year-end report shows a harvest of 10.78 billion bushels, 27 percent less than the agency’s initial estimate of 14.8 billion bushels. The harvest, however, was still one of the largest in U.S. history. Farmers say better crop technology that improved the ability of corn to withstand drought saved them from more devastating losses, and production was helped by the large number of acres planted this year…”

Parts Of Twin Cities Metro In USDA Plant Hardiness Zone 5. As I mentioned in yesterday’s blog (courtesy of Jack Falker in Edina) our warming climate means that things are growing here that weren’t growing here a generation ago. Click here to see the latest USA map, courtesy of thebiopod.com.

Crazy Weather Down Under. Check out the “haboob” images from Australia – and harrowing stories of entire families leaping into nearby lakes to escape flames and “fire tornadoes”. These are a few of the symptoms of the worst heat on record for Australia and Tasmania – details via YouTube.

Melting Snow = Dense Fog. The photo above is from the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. As snow melts the air near the ground becomes saturated; falling temperatures can cool the air to the dew point and lazy clouds (fog) forms. More from the NWS: ”Much warmer temperatures, a jump in higher dew points, rainfall, and bit of breezy conditions all-together account for snow melt. This is photo of fog forming due to snow melt outside our office. With some locations experiencing wind, the fog can begin to move and settle over certain areas…”

Technicolor Sunset. Thanks to Timothy Butz, who snapped this photo near his home in Ellicott City, Maryland, where temperatures may reach the 60s and 70s tomorrow. By the end of next week the wind chill may approach zero in this area. Enjoy the (fleeting) thaw!

The McMansion Of Tablets. I’m feeling a little insecure about my tablet right now, after getting a glimpse of this one, courtesy of gizmag.com: “Panasonic might be getting outshined a little at CES 2013 as competitors like LG and Samsung show off their unique takes on 4K-resolution TVs, but that doesn’t mean it didn’t find its own creative use for 4K technology. On the show floor, the company demoed a new 20-inch tablet that runs Windows 8 on a 4K resolution ISP-alpha display…”

March In January. .71″ of precipitation at International Falls, the vast majority of it rain, on January 11. Yes. Odd. HIghs reached the mid 30s to low 40s statewide, the combination of warmth and rain eating away at what little snow we had left – down to 4″ at St. Cloud and Duluth, 1″ in Rochester, a lousy “trace” at MSP International Airport.

Paul’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:



TODAY: Blustery and much colder under a mostly cloudy sky, falling temps. Winds: W 20-35. High: 18 (early – falling thru the teens during the day with a wind chill near zero at times). SATURDAY NIGHT: Parlty cloudy and numbing. Low: 4 (wind chill -10)

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Character-building. Feels like -10 F. High: 12

MONDAY: Bright sun, light winds. Low: 3. High: 16

TUESDAY: Dim sun, not as numbing. Low: 8. High: 23

WEDNESDAY: Fleeting thaw. Make the most of it. Low: 17. High: 34

THURSDAY: Tumbling temperatures. Blue sky. Low: 9. High: 10

FRIDAY: Yukon-like early. Clouds increase with flurries possible. Low: -4. High: 12

Climate Stories…

Effects Of Climate Change Will Be Felt More Deeply In Decades Ahead, Draft Report Says. The Washington Post has some breaking (climate) news; here’s an excerpt: “…The report’s executive summary states that not only have extreme weather and climate events become more frequent in recent years, “there is new and stronger evidence that many of these increases are related to human activities.” The report adds that these changes are exacting an economic toll on infrastructure across the country; it also identifies specific vulnerabilities in the Washington region, such as the Chesapeake Bay, which it said was threatened by changing land use patterns and the changing climate. Virginia Beach ranks among the nation’s “most vulnerable port cities,” according to the assessment, after Miami, the New York City area, New Orleans and Tampa-St. Petersburg….”

Photo credit: Washington Post. You can access the Draft Climate Assessment Report here (series of large PDF files).

Report: Climate Change Triggers Extreme Weather Events. Politico has the story; here’s the introduction: “Human activities play a primary role in causing climate change, and evidence is mounting that those changes will lead to more frequent extreme weather events, according to a major draft report that will be released later Friday. The draft of the third National Climate Assessment comes as the Northeast continues to recover from devastation caused by Hurricane Sandy and just days after the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said 2012 was the hottest year on record in the contiguous United States. The draft report, which runs more than 1,000 pages and was approved for release Friday by a federal advisory committee, warns that “human induced climate change is projected to continue and accelerate significantly if emissions of heat trapping gases continue to increase…” (photo credit: AP).
 

Climate Change Doesn’t Have To Mean The End Of The World. Here’s an excerpt of a story at The Atlantic: “This week the National Climate Data Center confirmed what most had long believed: 2012 was the warmest year on record for the United States. Ever. And not just a bit warmer: a full Fahrenheit degree warmer than in 1998, the previous high. In the land of climatology statistics, that is immense. In the understatement of one climate scientist, these findings are “a big deal.” Almost every news story reporting on this juxtaposed the record with a series of disruptive climate events, ranging from the drought that covered much of the United States farmland and punctuated by Hurricane Sandy in its tens of billions of dollars of devastation. Many also pointed out that eight of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 1990 (though it should be noted that official records only extend to 1895). Not surprisingly, these observations were almost always followed by warnings of more warming and substantially worse consequences to come…”

Photo credit above: Reuters.

NASA Proves Global Warming Changes From Above. Here’s a clip from The Guardian Express: “Starting this month, NASA will send a remotely piloted research aircraft as high as 65,000 feet over the tropical Pacific Ocean to probe unexplored regions of the upper atmosphere for answers to how a warming climate is changing Earth. The first flights of the Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX), a multi-year airborne science campaign with a heavily instrumented Global Hawk aircraft, will take off from and be operated by NASA’s Dryden Flight Research Center atEdwards Air Force Base in California. The Global Hawk is able to make 30-hour flights. Water vapor and ozone in the stratosphere can have a large impact on Earth’s climate. The processes that drive the rise and fall of these compounds, especially water vapor, are not well understood…”

Hot Enough For You? Here’s a portion of an Op-Ed from Eugene Robinson at The Washington Post: “…So we’re going to deal with climate change whether we like it or not. We’re going to spend many billions of dollars over the coming years providing disaster relief in the wake of hurricanes and other destructive weather events. If we’re a bit smarter, we’ll spend even more to protect our coastal cities from storm surges of the kind that devastated parts of New York. Investment in barriers and floodwalls will ultimately save both money and lives. But if we were really smart, we’d be talking about how to mitigate the ultimate damage by weaning ourselves from coal, oil and other energy sources that produce carbon emissions. We see what looks like disaster looming but don’t even talk about it, because the politics of climate change are inconvenient. Future generations will curse our silence.”

How American Cities Are Adapting To Climate Change. Think Progress has a story about how cities are taking the lead on mitigating climate change – also hardening infrastructure to make the symptoms of a warmer atmosphere (more extreme heat and rainfall) less damaging: “A new report by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives highlights twenty local government across the country that are taking the initiative to combat global warming. The report follows up an earlier survey ICLEI did of 298 American cities, which found that 74 percent had perceived changes in the climate — including increased storm intensity, higher temperatures, and more precipitation. Almost two-thirds are pursuing adaptation planning for climate change, compared to 68 percent globally, and virtually all U.S. cities report difficulties acquiring funding for adaptation efforts. (Only Latin American cities reported similar levels of difficulty.) And over one-third of U.S. cities said the federal government does not understand the realities of climate change adaptation…”

Fox News Questions Whether Government Faked Hottest Year On Record. O.K. Time to put on your tin-foil hat and hold hands with some anti-science conspiracy theorists. These people need new hobbies. Here’s an excerpt from Media Matters: “A Fox News.com article questioned whether 2012 was actually the hottest year on record, quoting “skeptics” who suggest a government office is manipulating data to fabricate proof of rising temperatures. In fact, statistical adjustments made by the agency are required, publicly-documented changes to correct for errors and known sources of bias in the raw data. In January, the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) announced that 2012 was the hottest year on record in the contiguous U.S. – an announcement that Fox News ignored until one of Fox News’ few liberal commentators, Bob Beckel, tried to bring it up on The Five. Soon after, FoxNews.com reporter Maxim Lott solicited the views of a few professional climate “skeptics” to claim that scientists made unjustified data adjustments to exaggerate 2012′s heat…”

Explained In 90 Seconds: What Is Climate Change Doing To El Nino? Here’s a snippet of a very interesting story (and video clip) from Mother Jones: “…For the past seven years, Cobb and her lab team have been recontructing the history of El Niño events across several millenia by taking core samples from corals in the Pacific. That process has uncovered reams of fresh climate data. And it’s within this new, longer baseline of temperatures from the tropical Pacific that Cobb spotted something surprising: “The 20th century is significantly, statistically stronger in its El Niño Southern Oscillation activity than this long, baseline average,” Cobb says. El Niño events have gotten worse.That led Cobb to wonder: Is man-made climate change, and the level of carbon in the atmosphere, shifting in El Niño events along with it? Or should we chalk it up to coincidence?…”

New York Times Dismantles Its Environment Desk. The latest from Inside Climate News; here’s an excerpt: “The New York Times will close its environment desk in the next few weeks and assign its seven reporters and two editors to other departments. The positions of environment editor and deputy environment editor are being eliminated. No decision has been made about the fate of the Green Blog, which is edited from the environment desk. “It wasn’t a decision we made lightly,” said Dean Baquet, the paper’s managing editor for news operations. “To both me and Jill [Abramson, executive editor], coverage of the environment is what separates the New York Times from other papers. We devote a lot of resources to it, now more than ever. We have not lost any desire for environmental coverage. This is purely a structural matter…”

Photo credit above: Scott Beale, flickr

Read More

“All we are asking is parity price for him. . .”
Gov. Floyd B. Olson
1933*

At the beginning of the Depression, Minnesota farmers had a champion in Floyd B. Olson. Elected governor of Minnesota in 1930 as our state’s first third-party governor, he was an early advocate of price protection for farmers. This position was an outgrowth of his involvement in creating the Farmer Labor Party. As a popular governor in a farm state, he was a key agitator in the Midwest for a moratorium on farm foreclosure and for national action that led to the very first federal farm bill adoption under Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal. He actually felt the New Deal farm legislation, known as the Agriculture Adjustment Act, did not go far enough. He advocated for something very similar to the present day farm commodity insurance provisions being proposed in Washington DC for its new generation farm bill.

What may be surprising to most Minnesotans today is that Gov. Olson was a product of Minneapolis’s North Side. He graduated from North High in 1909. After graduation he did odd jobs through Minnesota, Canada, Alaska and Seattle before settling back in Minneapolis to get a law degree. He eventually became Hennepin County attorney in 1920 where he gained a reputation for taking on corruption, bootleggers and the Ku Klux Klan.

At the beginning of the Great Depression, this radical progressive no-nonsense prosecutor was able to ride a wave of dissatisfaction amongst working-class and farmers of the state into the governorship. He was also an ardent environmentalist. He would go on to be venerated as one of Minnesota’s most respected governors. President Roosevelt even considered bringing him on as his running mate for his reelection in 1936. Unfortunately Olson became ill at that time and would die of cancer in the summer of 1936 at 44.

Therefore, one of the strongest advocates for farmers in our state history was an environmentalist progressive from the north side of Minneapolis. This historic fact may be something rural Republicans in the legislature should have considered this week before they attacked the new DFL selection for chairwoman of the Environment, Natural Resources and Agriculture Finance Committee, Rep. Jean Wagenius. She is also an environmental progressive from Minneapolis, but from the south side of the metropolis.

The House Republican caucus’s first official act of dissent in the 2013 Legislative Session was to make a motion to strip away the agricultural finance portion of Wagenius’ jurisdiction and give it to the separate Agriculture Policy Committee. During the first day of session, which is traditionally the ceremonial day of swearing-in and celebration for family and friends, the Republicans took the unusual action of bring this motion to strip away some of Wagenius’ jurisdiction. The Republican Caucus sent out a press release attacking her as a “Mother Earth feminist”. The motion was referred to the Rules Committee and will likely fail, but it definitely sets a combative tone.

The Republican attacks on the new DFL leadership and Wagenius continued when she held her first committee hearing on Thursday. Groups like the Minnesota Farmers Union quickly distanced themselves from the action by the Republican Party, wanting to give the new chair the benefit of the doubt. To her credit as a seasoned veteran of these battles, Wagenius did not take the bait and refused to engage in partisan bickering. Unfortunately this sends a clear signal that environmental issues affecting agriculture will be highly contentious this session.

*The Political Career of Floyd B Olson. George H Meyer Minnesota Historical Society Press 1987, Page 154

39 F. high in the Twin Cities Thursday.
23 F. average high for January 10.
52 F. high on January 10, 2012.

.05″ rain fell at KMSP yesterday as of 7 pm.

2″ snow remains on the ground in the metro area.

Blessed and Baffled Weather in Heaven? Yes, but the clouds are pink and high-flying “glowing orbs” (angels?) show up on Doppler. “Proof of Heaven” documents the extraordinary story of a neurosurgeon who was brain-dead for a week – a former agnostic who glimpsed a world for which science has no answers. Skeptical? Read the book, and then let’s talk. Winters are trending warmer over time. Today’s blog shows trends in Heating Degree Days & compelling evidence that MSP is already in USDA Climate Zone 5. The coldest nighttime lows of winter in the Twin Cities are much warmer (now) than they were 20-30 years ago. The data is the data. Facts on the ground. We should see an average of 30 subzero nights every winter. Last winter? 3. This winter we may see 3-6 nights below zero; a few glancing blows of Arctic air the next 2 weeks. It’ll be a pale imitation of the brutal blasts we endured back in the 1970s and early 1980s. Ice is possible up north today but the metro area sees light rain and drizzle; highs top 40 under a March-like sky. Enjoy the warm front, because a cold wind chill returns tomorrow; Sunday will be nearly 30 degrees colder than today. We thaw out briefly the middle of next week. A subzero low is possible late next week, again around January 21 – the coldest spell of winter? A winter that should (once again) track milder than average.

Ask Paul. Weather-related Q&A:

“Paul, the weather guy, I have seen in the news paper the degree heating and cooling days on a yearly basis.  Has anyone done a ten year moving average of the degree heating and cooling days?  This is a very common thing in the stock market to see how a stock is behaving over a particular period.  It would seem to provide a way to see long term changes in our climate. Thanks.” I asked Pete Boulay, at the Minnesota Climatology Working Group, for his perspective and here is an excerpt of what he wrote: “We usually prefer a 7-year moving average to look at recent trends. Here is a graph of seasonal HDD (heating degree data) values for the Twin Cities from 1891-92 to 2011-12 (the last time we have a complete season). Yes, I believe we have saved a lot of money (heating our homes and businesses) in recent winters.”

Tracking The Trends. The graph above, from the Minnesota State Climatology Office and the MN DNR, shows heating degree days since 1891-92. To calculate the heating degree data for any given data determine the average temperature (high and low) and subtract from 65. So an average of 10 degrees F. would equate to 55 heating degree days, and then add them up over time. The black solid line above shows a smoothed trend line, showing a drop in HDD since the early 70s as Minnesota winters have warmed over time. It’s hardly breaking news: our winters are trending milder over time.

Coldest Nighttime Lows at MSP Since 1963. Here is another interesting way to look at the data, a graph showing the coldest nighttime low (for every winter) going back nearly 60 years. The black line is the trend line over time, showing the same gradual warming trend. It’s not getting as cold, for as long, as it did back in the 60s and 70s. Again, if you’ve been paying attention, this hardly comes as breaking news. Thanks to Jack Falker, an accomplished rose grower from Edina, for passing this along. Jack has compelling evidence that the Twin Cities metro is already in USDA Zone #5 (warming from Zone #4 in recent years). He suspects we may be close to entering Climate Zone #6 before long. Jack Falker writes:
Twin Cities in USDA Zone 5 “With our very warm 2012, and much warmer than normal winter-to-date in 2013, it becomes more and more obvious to me as a rose gardener that the Twin Cities have moved firmly into USDA Zone 5, where the extreme minimum temperature (EMT) is expected to be between -10 and -20 degrees, rather than our previous EMT expectation in Zone 4 of -20 to -30 degrees.  Notice how the upward slope of the 50 year graph I developed using Minnesota Climatology (NOAA) statistics, takes us right out of USDA Zone 4 into Zone 5.  And following that upward slope, it looks like we could be headed higher yet toward Zone 6 (EMT -0 to -10).  Last fall and winter-to-date in 2013 certainly bear that out.  Our EMT thus far in January was -5 on January 1st  and, looking at the models in your weather blog on Thursday, January 10th, it looks like we might not get much colder than that, which would be our first zone 6 winter, with the highest EMT on my 50 year graph and perhaps in history.”     Freezing Rain Advisory. I don’t expect major problems in the immediate Twin Cities with ice (freezing rain) today, but if your travels take you north/west of Mille Lacs, toward Brainerd, Crosby, Aitkin or Duluth, watch the bridges and secondary roads. All those soggy roads and puddles will turn to ice tonight as temperatures fall (hard). Details from the local NWS: ...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT...

.LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MORRIS TO
MINNEAPOLIS TO RED WING...AND IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
FRIDAY.

* TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN CONTINUING TONIGHT...AND LAST
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME
SLIPPERY. ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON VEHICLES LEFT OUTDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

Global Weather Whiplash. Here’s the latest installment of my (daily) climate headlines, available at YouTube: “Unprecedented Heat in Australia, Snow in the Middle East. In today’s climate segment, Meteorologist Paul Douglas looks at some of the weather extremes around the world.”
Big Swings. The (usually more reliable) European model hints at highs near 40 today, then falling thru the 20s and teens tomorrow, with highs close to 10-14 F. by Sunday. We thaw out (briefly) by the middle of next week before another punch of cold air by Friday of next week. Cold enough, but Old Man Winter is still pulling his punch. ECMWF forecast highs above in Celsius.  

84 Hour Snowfall Forecast. Here’s the latest NAM outlook, showing a couple inches from near Fargo/Moorhead into the Red River Valley, a major snowfall for the Dakotas, Wyoming and Montana.
 

Cold, But Not “Arctic”. The GFS keeps flip-flopping, like a nutty D.C. politician. The latest run shows a couple “waves” of cold air pushing south of the border, starting this weekend and early next week, another surge late next week, maybe 1-3 subzero nights in the metro area. Long (long) rainge guidance shows 30s returning by the end of January.
 

NAEFS Extended Outlook. Experimental long-range guidance from NOAA’s NAEFS model keeps the worst of the cold wave near Hudson Bay between January 18-24. Confidence level: low. Bitter air will be oozing just north of Minnesota – it wouldn’t take much to pull the core of this cold wave into Minnesota, but right now it appears the worst of the negative numbers will stay just north of the border.

“March-uary”: January 2012. Remember last year at this time? Freakishly warm, in fact a year ago today it was 52 F. in the Twin Cities. We saw 9 days of 40-degree or warmer temperatures late January, setting the stage for the warmest year in Minnesota history. Check out the January 2012 data from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

From A Star Tribune Reader:

Hi Paul,
I live in Inver Grove Heights and Robins are here already. This is the earliest I’ve seen them that I can recall. What is your take on this?
Best regards,
Jerry Wussow Jerry – those are brave robins, that’s all I can say. By Saturday they will probably regret their decision to stay (or migrate) to Inver Grove Heights. I suspect it’s a fluke – I can’t say I see any sign (yet) of an early spring, nothing like what we experienced last “winter”. Thanks for passing this along.

Climate Headlines. Here’s one YouTube link that has all the 2:30 climate headlines I’m creating for WeatherNation TV and our other media partners – a chronological list of segments highlighting some of the biggest weather and climate stories that made me do a double-take.

January Golf? My father lives in Lancaster county, Pennsylvania, about 80-90 minutes west of Philadelphia. With unseasonable warmth in the forecast the local golf course has decided to open up next weekend. No tee times are required. Sounds like a good plan to me.

Grandparents Save Five Kids From “Tornadoes Of Fire” in Australia. I’ve never ever seen anything quite like this – an excerpt of a harrowing, life and death story at Get Energy Smart Now! “Breathtaking images: “Grandfather Tim Holmes took these harrowing photos of his five grandkids escaping the wildfires because he feared their parents ‘would never see them again.’…..Mr Holmes told how he sent his wife, their grandchildren and pet dog Polly to the nearby sea jetty when he saw smoke from the looming wildfire rise from a nearby ridge.’For the next two-and-a-half hours, we huddled under the jetty as the fire intensified and produced a plume of smoke, ash and debris that left us with very little oxygen…”

Photo credit above: Associated Press. “Tammy Holmes shelters her grandchildren Charlotte Walker, 2, Esther Walker, 4, Liam Walker, 9, Matilda, 11, and Caleb Walker, 6, under a jetty as a wildfire rages nearby in Dunalley, Australia, Jan. 4, 2013. This photo was taken by Tammy Holme’s husband Tim Holmes.” Photo by Tim Holmes, via: Time

Australia Record Heat Infographic. Click here to see this full screen, courtesy of getup.org.au.

Australia Braces For More Blistering Heat After Record Bursting Spell. Meteorologist Jason Samenow has more details at The Washington Post’s always-informative Capital Weather Gang; here’s an excerpt: “Four of Australia’s hottest 10 days on record have occurred this young calendar year and another punishing round of heat is on the way. On Monday, Australia’s average high temperature reached a scorching 40.33 C or 104.5 F, the hottest day on record. David Jones, manager of climate monitoring for Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology told the Associated Press that the extent, duration and intensity of this summer’s heat wave is “arguably the most significant in Australia’s history.”

Photo credit above: “A dust storm associated with a collapsing thunderstorm or “haboob” photographed in western Australia. Hot weather has set records and contributed to both wildfires and dust storms in the land down under.” ( Levi Cooper / Perth Weather Live )

Too Hot: Australia’s Big Heat-Breaking Records. Here’s an excerpt of a story on the historic levels of heat gripping Australia from New Zealand’s Hot Topic: “…NASA’s Earth Observatory provides this overview of the fires in Tasmania over the weekend that caused chaos and destruction in the normally cool state — Hobart hit an all time high temperature of 41.8ºC, a full degree above its previous record. Fire danger in parts of New South Wales has been classified as catastrophic, and this NASA Worldview image for Jan 8th appears to show smoke from fires in southern NSW streaming out to the east and over the sea towards New Zealand…”

Deadly Storms Blanket Parts of Mideast In Snow. The BBC reports; here’s an excerpt: “The worst storms to hit the Middle East in a decade have claimed several lives and left large parts of Israel and Jordan blanketed in snow. Across the region, many schools are shut and thousands of homes are without power. Heavy snow in Jerusalem on Thursday brought transport to a standstill. The freezing conditions have brought misery for thousands of Syrians living in refugee camps in northern Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon. Two weather-related deaths were reported in Lebanon including that of a baby swept away in a flash flood...” (Photo credit: Reuters).

9 Worst Things About Being Over 50? Yes, I can relate. In my head I’m still 24. My body, however, disagrees (loudly) some mornings. Here’s an excerpt of an article at PBS’s Next Avenue that caught my eye: “On the upside, growing older means you’ve accumulated a good deal of experience and wisdom as well as an abundance of instructive and entertaining stories. But there’s a sharp downside, too. Take action now to make sure that the challenges below don’t end up defining your second and third acts.

1. You’re closer to the end. Planning for the end of life — your own and that of your elder loved ones — is more urgent than ever before. Not doing so may mean enduring costly medical measures that prolong life without sustaining its quality and burdening others with agonizing decisions based on guesswork.

Solution: Have end-of-life conversations with family members soon, fill out the legal documents that make your medical wishes and estate management affairs clear and analyze long-term care insurance options.…”

Photo credit: Digital Vision/Thinkstock , nextavenue.org.

3-D HDTV – Without The Glasses? This article at gizmag.com caught my eye; here’s an excerpt: “In addition to a 110″ Ultra-HD LED TV, Hisense also revealed its latest take on glasses-free 3D technology at CES with the GF60XT980 television concept. The new 60-inch TV uses an Ultra High Definition (UHD) panel to provide a clear, 3D picture from almost any angle, so multiple viewers can enjoy the 3D effect without needing multiple pairs of glasses...”

Old Fashioned “Windshield Wiper”. Not sure where this is from, but I’m feeling better about the wipers on my car.

Remarkable Warmth For January. O.K. Not as balmy as last January, but 15-25 degrees above average. 48 at International Falls on January 10? Yes, that’s unusual, especially with 9″ snow on the ground. Highs ranged from 36 at Redwood Falls to 39 Twin Cities, 40 in St. Cloud and 42 at Duluth.
 

January Broomball – In The Rain? Thanks to WeatherNation TV meteorologist Todd Nelson, who shared this photo last night. Todd can’t remember a time he was broomballing in the rain. Odd.

Paul’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:



TODAY: Fog, light rain, drizzle. Ice far north. Winds: S 10. High: 41 FRIDAY NIGHT: Turning windy and much colder – wet roads may become icy. Low: 16

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy and blustery. Feels like zero. Winds: W 15-30. High: 18 (falling during the day).

SUNDAY: Cold sun. Wind chill: -5. Low: 4. High: 11

MONDAY: Plenty of sun, still nippy. Low: 1. High: 17

TUESDAY: Clouds increase, turning milder. Low: 5. High: 25

WEDNESDAY: Mild start, Cooling down late in the day. Low: 18. High: 33

THURSDAY: Partly sunny, a rude wind returns. Low: 13. High: 20

Climate Stories…



“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true”.

– Soren Kierkegaard (1813-1855)

Climate Change In The Age Of Truthiness. Here’s a clip of an article at The Energy Collective that resonated with me. Lately it seems truth (at least about climate change and the scientific method) has entered a slippery slope: ”Does reality shape our beliefs, or do our beliefs shape “reality”? A fascinating paper by “Did the Arctic Ice Recover? Demographics of True and False Climate Facts” by Lawrence Hamilton examined this question using polling data on people’s beliefs about climate change and their knowledge of several key climate facts, including that the Arctic sea ice is decreasing. Hamilton finds that existing beliefs about climate change influence acceptance of the facts, or, better put, which “facts” one chooses to accept. In the study, 80% of people who believe climate change is happening and is caused by human activity know that sea ice is declining. Of those who do not believe climate change is happening or who do not think it is caused by human activity, however, only 60% think the Arctic sea ice has been in decline…”

Graphic credit above: “Record low Arctic sea ice, September 16, 2012” (NASA/Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio)

Has Global Warming Ground To A Halt? The short answer is no, but there are a lot of persistent denialists out there who would have you believe otherwise. Details in this excerpt from NewScientist: “The UK’s Met Office has downgraded its forecast for warming at the Earth’s surface over the next five years. Headlines this week announced that global warming is “at a standstill”. Climate sceptics crowed. But the Met Office said the outlook for later in the century remains unchanged. New Scientist looks at the facts.
 
Has global warming stopped, or hasn’t it?

Atmospheric warming has certainly slowed greatly in the past decade. The Met Office says this appears to be due to natural cycles that are counteracting the warming effect of greenhouse gases. After incorporating new analysis of natural cycles into its latest model of atmospheric and ocean circulation, it has concluded that we are in for a few more years of little change. Having calculated annual global temperatures for the next five years, its best guess is that they will be, on average, 0.43 °C higher than the average for 1970 to 2000. That’s down from its previous prediction of a 0.54 °C rise. If the new prediction proves right, then 2017 will barely be warmer than most years in the past decade…”

16 (More) Years Of Global Warming. One of the denialist memes going around now is “there hasn’t been any warming since 1998.” Really? The last 9 consecutive 12 month periods over the USA “conus” have been the warmest ever observed. We’ve gone 28 years in a row with global temperatures consistently warmer than the 20th century average. If you strip away volcanic and solar activity, as well as biases brought on by El Nino and El Nina, there is no scientific evidence that the rate of global warming has slowed…or peaked…or dropped. None. Skeptical Science takes a look at the latest scientific conspiracy theory: “Human greenhouse gas emissions have continued to warm the planet over the past 16 years. However, a persistent myth has emerged in the mainstream media challenging this.  Denial of this fact may have been the favorite climate contrarian myth of 2012, first invented by David Rose at The Mail on Sunday with an assist from Georgia Tech’s Judith Curry, both of whom later doubled-down on the myth after we debunkedit.  Despite these repeated debunkings, the myth spread throughout the media in various opinioneditorials and stunts throughout 2012. The latest incarnations include this article at the Daily Mail, and a misleadingly headlined piece at the Telegraph. As a simple illustration of where the myth goes wrong, the following video clarifies how the interplay of natural and human factors have affected the short-term temperature trends, and demonstrates that underneath the short-term noise, the long-term human-caused global warming trend remains as strong as ever…”

What Nightly News Shows Can Learn From PBS’s Climate Coverage. Here’s an excerpt of a report from Media Matters: “A Media Matters analysis found that the nightly news programs on ABC, CBS and NBC largely ignored climate change in 2012, despite record-breaking temperatures and a series of extremeweatherevents in the U.S. By contrast, PBS NewsHour devoted almost twice as many segments to climate change as the other networks combined. When the National Climatic Data Center announced Tuesday that 2012 was the hottest year in recorded history for the contiguous U.S., broadcast networks admirably devotedsegmentsconnecting the announcement to climate change. But for most of the year they turned a blind eye to climate change, even while reporting on its consequences. Together, the nightly news programs on ABC, CBS and NBC devoted only 12 segments to climate change in 2012. PBS’ coverage stood out, with its nightly news program dedicating 23 segments to the issue…”

NASA Chases Climate Change Clues Into The Stratosphere. Here’s a clip from a recent article from NASA: ”Starting this month, NASA will send a remotely piloted research aircraft as high as 65,000 feet over the tropical Pacific Ocean to probe unexplored regions of the upper atmosphere for answers to how a warming climate is changing Earth. The first flights of the Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX), a multi-year airborne science campaign with a heavily instrumented Global Hawk aircraft, will take off from and be operated by NASA’s Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base in California. The Global Hawk is able to make 30-hour flights. Water vapor and ozone in the stratosphere can have a large impact on Earth’s climate. The processes that drive the rise and fall of these compounds, especially water vapor, are not well understood. This limits scientists’ ability to predict how these changes will influence global climate in the future. ATTREX will study moisture and chemical composition in the upper regions of the troposphere, the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere. The tropopause layer between the troposphere and stratosphere, 8 miles to 11 miles above Earth’s surface, is the point where water vapor, ozone and other gases enter the stratosphere….”

The Market And Mother Nature. Here’s the intro to an Op-Ed in the New York Times from St. Louis Park’s Thomas Friedman: ”Whenever I hear the word “cliff,” I am reminded of something that President Obama’s science adviser, John Holdren, used to say about how we need to respond to climate change because no one can predict when it might take a disruptive, nonlinear turn. “We are driving toward a cliff in a fog,” said Holdren about the climate, and that’s always a good time “to start tapping on the brakes.” Indeed, when you think about how much financial debt we’ve built up in the market and how much carbon debt we’ve built up in the atmosphere, the wisest thing we could do as a country today is to start tapping on the brakes by both emitting less carbon to bend the emissions curve down and racking up less debt to bend our debt-to-G.D.P. curve down. Unfortunately, we are still doing neither...” (satellite image above: NASA).

Billion Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters In 2012. Here is a list of the most extreme weather and climate events in 2012, courtesy of NOAA NCDC.

Read More

35 F. high in the Twin Cities Wednesday.
23 F. average high for January 9.
49 F. high on January 9, 2011.

3″ snow on the ground. With rain and highs near 40 today and tomorrow that may shrink to 1″ by Friday evening.

-5 to -10 F. wind chills expected Saturday night into Sunday.

January Puddles There are January Thaws, and then there are January Meltdowns. A year ago today the high in the Twin Cities was a balmy 52 F. January of 2012 saw 9 days above 40; an average monthly temperature 7.7 F. above average, setting the tone for a warm year to come. 3 months ago I went out on a limb and predicted this winter wouldn’t be as mild as last winter – and not as snowy as 2010-2011 either. Something in-between those two (extreme) winters. I stand by that forecast, by the way. A little rain is likely tonight & Friday. Highs top 40 F. tomorrow before falling off a temperature cliff on Saturday; a howling northwest wind making it feel subzero by afternoon. Big swings. We get off to a numbing start next week, but I’m no longer convinced it’ll be the coldest week of winter. Right now it looks like a glancing blow of frigid air; a couple more subzero nights late next week. We may still get smacked by hair-curling cold again in late January, but the risk of sustained, day after day of soul-grinding cold has lessened a bit. NOAA predicts some slight improvement in the drought over eastern Minnesota, but “persistence” across much of Minnesota, meaning more of the same. I hope we’re not still having this (drought) conversation come April.  

11 Separate Billion Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters In 2012. Here’s the latest installment of my (daily) climate headlines, available at YouTube: “Meteorologist Paul Douglas takes looks at the billion dollar extreme weather events of 2012. There are 11 events in total including Hurricane Sandy, Hurricane Isaac, the Derecho and the Drought. What do you remember most about the weather in 2012?“
Seriously Cold. These were air temperatures yesterday evening over Canada. It now appears the core of this pipe-rupturing, battery-draining air will merely brush the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week, a second surge coming the end of next week. But the very coldest air is forecast to stay north of the border for the next 1-2 weeks. For the current temperatures over Canada click here, maps courtesy of Ham Weather. Temperature Roller Coaster. After upper 30s to near 40 today and Friday temperatures plummet Saturday, highs close to +10 F. Sunday and Monday with a subzero windchill. The next clipper yanks milder air northward, a brief thaw possible next Wednesday, before a second surge of cold air arrives the end of next week. Cold, but not quite brutally cold. ECMWF forecast highs above in Celsius. 84 Hour Snowfall Forecast. Looking for fresh snow? Drive west, about 5-6 hours or more. The Dakotas will pick up enough snow to shovel and plow, maybe a foot or more from the Black Hills to Bismarck, maybe 3-6″ for the Red River Valley of far northwestern Minnesota. Night And Day. Yesterday I showed you a 16-day GFS outlook that looked like the early stages of the Next Ice Age. Today’s run looks (very) different. Yes, it will get cold over the weekend, another push of chilly air the end of next week. But the latest long-range models are hinting at a thaw between January 23-25. The models are more erratic than usual, but at least for the next 2 weeks it now appears that the core of the coldest air will stay just north of Minnesota. NAEFS Extended Outlook. Experimental long-range guidance from NOAA’s NAEFS model keeps the worst of the cold wave near Hudson Bay. Confidence level: exceedingly low. Check back in tomorrow to see if the models have flip-flopped again ok?

“March-uary”: January 2012. Remember last year at this time? Freakishly warm, in fact a year ago today it was 52 F. in the Twin Cities. We saw 9 days of 40-degree or warmer temperatures late January, setting the stage for the warmest year in Minnesota history. Check out the January 2012 data from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

From A Star Tribune Reader:

Hi Paul,
I live in Inver Grove Heights and Robins are here already. This is the earliest I’ve seen them that I can recall. What is your take on this?
Best regards,
Jerry Wussow Jerry – those are brave robins, that’s all I can say. By Saturday they will probably regret their decision to stay (or migrate) to Inver Grove Heights. I suspect it’s a fluke – I can’t say I see any sign (yet) of an early spring, nothing like what we experienced last “winter”. Thanks for passing this along.

Climate Headlines. Here’s one YouTube link that has all the 2:30 climate headlines I’m creating for WeatherNation TV and our other media partners – a chronological list of segments highlighting some of the biggest weather and climate stories that made me do a double-take.

January Golf? My father lives in Lancaster county, Pennsylvania, about 80-90 minutes west of Philadelphia. With unseasonable warmth in the forecast the local golf course has decided to open up next weekend. No tee times are required. Sounds like a good plan to me.

2012: Hottest Year Ever In U.S. Thanks Onion – I needed this chuckle. If you need a (PG-rated) day–brightener click here.

Too Hot: Australia’s Big Heat-Breaking Records. Here’s an excerpt of a story on the historic levels of heat gripping Australia from New Zealand’s Hot Topic: “…NASA’s Earth Observatory provides this overview of the fires in Tasmania over the weekend that caused chaos and destruction in the normally cool state — Hobart hit an all time high temperature of 41.8ºC, a full degree above its previous record. Fire danger in parts of New South Wales has been classified as catastrophic, and this NASA Worldview image for Jan 8th appears to show smoke from fires in southern NSW streaming out to the east and over the sea towards New Zealand…”

A Runny Landscape. Yesterday was the 3rd day of the January Thaw, with temperatures 10-15 F. warmer than average. Afternoon highs ranged from 26 at Alexandria to 31 St. Cloud (down to 5″ snow on the ground) to 35 in the Twin Cities and Eau Claire.

Sunset To Remember. Thanks to Tom Purdy, who snapped this terrific photo of the Rock River, near Janesville, Wisconsin late Tuesday.

Paul’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:



TODAY: Clouds increase. Light rain late. Winds: S 10-15. High: 38 THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy and foggy with periods of rain. Low: 34

FRIDAY: Gray and foggy with light rain and drizzle. High: 41

SATURDAY: Few flakes. Windy, much colder – feels like 0 to -5 by afternoon. High: 18 (falling sharply during the day).

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, brisk. Wind chill: -5 to -10. Ouch. Low: 3. High: 11

MONDAY: Bright sun, still numbing. Low: 0. High: 10

TUESDAY: Dim sun, not as cold. Low: 10. High: 24

WEDNESDAY: Next clipper. Clouds, windy – snow probably stays north. Low: 20. High: 32 * Another shot of numbing air is likely the end of next week; probably not record-setting, but temperatures well below average.

Climate Stories…



“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true”.

– Soren Kierkegaard (1813-1855)

16 (More) Years Of Global Warming. One of the denialist memes going around now is “there hasn’t been any warming since 1998.” Really? The last 9 consecutive 12 month periods over the USA “conus” have been the warmest ever observed. We’ve gone 28 years in a row with global temperatures consistently warmer than the 20th century average. If you strip away volcanic and solar activity, as well as biases brought on by El Nino and El Nina, there is no scientific evidence that the rate of global warming has slowed…or peaked…or dropped. None. Skeptical Science takes a look at the latest scientific conspiracy theory: “Human greenhouse gas emissions have continued to warm the planet over the past 16 years. However, a persistent myth has emerged in the mainstream media challenging this.  Denial of this fact may have been the favorite climate contrarian myth of 2012, first invented by David Rose at The Mail on Sunday with an assist from Georgia Tech’s Judith Curry, both of whom later doubled-down on the myth after we debunkedit.  Despite these repeated debunkings, the myth spread throughout the media in various opinioneditorials and stunts throughout 2012. The latest incarnations include this article at the Daily Mail, and a misleadingly headlined piece at the Telegraph. As a simple illustration of where the myth goes wrong, the following video clarifies how the interplay of natural and human factors have affected the short-term temperature trends, and demonstrates that underneath the short-term noise, the long-term human-caused global warming trend remains as strong as ever…”

What Nightly News Shows Can Learn From PBS’s Climate Coverage. Here’s an excerpt of a report from Media Matters: “A Media Matters analysis found that the nightly news programs on ABC, CBS and NBC largely ignored climate change in 2012, despite record-breaking temperatures and a series of extremeweatherevents in the U.S. By contrast, PBS NewsHour devoted almost twice as many segments to climate change as the other networks combined. When the National Climatic Data Center announced Tuesday that 2012 was the hottest year in recorded history for the contiguous U.S., broadcast networks admirably devotedsegmentsconnecting the announcement to climate change. But for most of the year they turned a blind eye to climate change, even while reporting on its consequences. Together, the nightly news programs on ABC, CBS and NBC devoted only 12 segments to climate change in 2012. PBS’ coverage stood out, with its nightly news program dedicating 23 segments to the issue…”

NASA Chases Climate Change Clues Into The Stratosphere. Here’s a clip from a recent article from NASA: ”Starting this month, NASA will send a remotely piloted research aircraft as high as 65,000 feet over the tropical Pacific Ocean to probe unexplored regions of the upper atmosphere for answers to how a warming climate is changing Earth. The first flights of the Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX), a multi-year airborne science campaign with a heavily instrumented Global Hawk aircraft, will take off from and be operated by NASA’s Dryden Flight Research Center at Edwards Air Force Base in California. The Global Hawk is able to make 30-hour flights. Water vapor and ozone in the stratosphere can have a large impact on Earth’s climate. The processes that drive the rise and fall of these compounds, especially water vapor, are not well understood. This limits scientists’ ability to predict how these changes will influence global climate in the future. ATTREX will study moisture and chemical composition in the upper regions of the troposphere, the lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere. The tropopause layer between the troposphere and stratosphere, 8 miles to 11 miles above Earth’s surface, is the point where water vapor, ozone and other gases enter the stratosphere….”

The Market And Mother Nature. Here’s the intro to an Op-Ed in the New York Times from St. Louis Park’s Thomas Friedman: ”Whenever I hear the word “cliff,” I am reminded of something that President Obama’s science adviser, John Holdren, used to say about how we need to respond to climate change because no one can predict when it might take a disruptive, nonlinear turn. “We are driving toward a cliff in a fog,” said Holdren about the climate, and that’s always a good time “to start tapping on the brakes.” Indeed, when you think about how much financial debt we’ve built up in the market and how much carbon debt we’ve built up in the atmosphere, the wisest thing we could do as a country today is to start tapping on the brakes by both emitting less carbon to bend the emissions curve down and racking up less debt to bend our debt-to-G.D.P. curve down. Unfortunately, we are still doing neither...” (satellite image above: NASA).

Billion Dollar Weather/Climate Disasters In 2012. Here is a list of the most extreme weather and climate events in 2012, courtesy of NOAA NCDC.

Read More

35 F. high in the Twin Cities Tuesday.

23 F. average high for January 8.

40 F. high on January 8, 2012.

2012: warmest year on record for the USA.

2012: second most extreme year on record for the USA.

2012: A Year Like No Other Dripping icicles; rain Thursday night? That’s weather. Climate scientists step back and examine larger global trends, analyzing data. Facts on the ground. NOAA now confirms that 2012 was America’s warmest year on record; 3.2 F. warmer than the 20th century average. The Climate Extreme Index (CEI), a measure of extremes in temperature & moisture, was second only to 1998, when we saw the most extreme El Nino on record. More data points. Details on the blog, along with news of historic heat in Australia. It’s so hot meteorologists are adding new colors on their weather maps. Savor a well-deserved January Thaw into Friday, when highs may reach the upper 30s. The atmosphere will be warm enough for a freakish mid-January rain late Thursday into part of Friday. Much dolder air arrives Saturday on 30 mph plus winds, sparking a snowy metro coating, maybe a “plowable” snow up in the Red River Valley. Old Man Winter takes the gloves off next week, something we’ve been talking about since last week. Subzero weather is likely from late next week into late January, maybe a few days with highs struggling to reach 0F. Yes, this will probably be the coldest outbreak of winter. Let’s see, what’s that URL? Kayak.com? Getmeoutofhere.com? My senior memory is failing. We’ll make the best of it.

* A 2012 national overview of major U.S. weather and climate events is available from NCDC here.

January Thaw – Then January Smack. 3 more days above freezing, and then a cold slap across the face, starting this weekend with highs near 10 F, and a wind chill of -10 F. Temperatures recover (briefly) Tuesday, then fall even more the latter half of next week. By Thursday temperatures may be stuck in low single digits.

Over The Temperature Cliff. Enjoy the thaw, because by Saturday there will be NO doubt in your mind that it’s mid-January. Expect a 30 degree temperature drop in less than 24 hours (whipping up 30 mph winds), making it feel like -10 to -15 F. by Sunday morning. Something to look forward to.

Predicted Snowfall. NAM model guidance shows a plowable snowfall over the Red River Valley, as much as 2-4″ from Detroit Lakes to Bemidji and Thief River Falls – well over a foot from the Black Hills of South Dakota into Wyoming.

NCDC Announces Warmest Year On Record For Contiguous U.S. We’ve been talking about this for weeks – and now NOAA NCDC makes it official: “According to NOAA scientists, the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. for 2012 was 55.3°F, which was 3.2°F above the 20th century average and 1.0°F above the previous record from 1998. The year consisted of the fourth warmest winter, a record warm spring, the second warmest summer, and a warmer-than-average autumn. Although the last four months of 2012 did not bring the same unusual warmth as the first 8 months of the year, the September through December temperatures were warm enough for 2012 to remain the record warmest year, by a wide margin. The average precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. for 2012 was 26.57 inches, 2.57 inches below average, and the 15th driest year on record for the nation…”

2012: A Year Of Hot and Dry Extremes. All those red dots littering the map above are cities that experienced their warmest year ever recorded last year – the yellow dots: driest years on record. More from NOAA NCDC: “Several locations throughout the United States experienced temperature and precipitation extremes in 2012. Most striking was the number of locations across the country that broke their average annual temperature record. These records were primarily driven by extremely warm maximum day time temperatures or daily highs, especially during the spring and summer months. More than a dozen of these locations also experienced their driest year on record. In those areas, the combination of the extreme warm and dry period resulted in a drought comparable to the drought episodes of the 1950s.”

* NCDC has a chronological list of the all-time record highs, day by day, for the USA here.

* globally the 10 warmest years have been observed in the last 15 years. The New York Times has more on 2012′s record warmth.

2012: One For The Record Books. The number of U.S. cities experiencing their warmest (all-time) years last year is staggering, as I attempt to put into perspective in this 2:30 YouTube clip, courtesy of WeatherNation TV: ”NOAA today confirmed what many meteorologists suspected. 2012 is officially the warmest year on record. What was the annual average temperature? And how much warmer is that than the previous record year? Meteorologist Paul Douglas breaks down some of the astounding numbers from 2012.”

Climate Extreme Index. The graph above (courtesy of NOAA NCDC) shows the trend line of U.S. temperature and moisture extremes. 2012 was second only to 1998, which saw the most severe El Nino ever recorded. More from NCDC: “The U.S. Climate Extremes Index indicated that 2012 was the second most extreme year on record for the nation. The index, which evaluates extremes in temperature and precipitation, as well as landfalling tropical cyclones, was nearly twice the average value and second only to 1998.”

2012 Global Temperature Anomalies. Temperatures were 3-5 degrees (F). warmer than the 1951-1980 global averages from North America and Siberia into the Arctic. Map above courtesy of NASA GISS. This is compared to a historical, 20th century baseline of normal global temperatures from 1951-1980.

Why I Got Off My Butt And Had A Flu Shot. I watched a report on CNN last week that almost made me fall of my couch – showing a giant red stain of “widespread” flu activity in the southern USA, drifting north, like a bad weather map. The map above shows the latest flu conditions as reported by the CDC, the Center for Disease Control in Atlanta. Not good.

Cold Weather Really Does Spread Flu. This 2007 article is from NewScientist, but it’s as relevant and timely as ever; here’s an excerpt: “Scientists have finally confirmed what your mother knew all along – that flu spreads best in cold, dry weather. As the first few cases of the northern hemisphere’s annual flu epidemic are trickling in this week, scientists may finally know why winter is flu season. It appears the virus lasts longer in cold, dry air, and our sluggish, cold-weather mucus cannot clear it out. Astonishingly it has taken until the publication of research this week to settle the basic question about how flu spreads, and why it girdles each hemisphere every year during winter. Ironically, that research was made possible by the rediscovery of a report by army doctors in 1919…”

Will We Be Able To Make Up Our Snowfall Deficit? Only a 1 in 4 chance of “normal” snowfall for the winter season? Granted, this story was posted by the Marquette, Michigan office of the National Weather Service, but I believe their logic and trend lines apply (loosely) to Minnesota and our snowfall drought as well. Here’s an excerpt: ”With the limited snowfall at most locations so far this year, the question becomes “Will we be able to make up our snowfall deficit over the next couple of months?” …When you pull out all of the seasons that had above normal snowfall through December, the potential for normal or above normal seasonal snowfall diminishes. Of the remaining 16 years, all but 4 of those years ended up being below normal (see the next chart below). Those 4 winter seasons were 1982-1983, 1984-1985, 1987-1988, and 2006-2007. Therefore, based on past history, you could say that we only have a 25% chance of our seasonal snowfall being normal this season. In addition, when looking at the last three winter seasons, we have been well below normal on snowfall (3 season average of 158.5 inches or 44.8 inches below normal).”

Preliminary Info On 2012 U.S. Billion-Dollar Extreme Weather Climate Events. NOAA NCDC has the details: “Today, NOAA released preliminary information on extreme weather and climate events in the U.S. for 2012 that are known to have reached the $1 billion threshold in losses. As of December 20, NOAA estimates that the nation experienced 11 such events, to include seven severe weather/tornado events, two tropical storm/hurricane events, and the yearlong drought and associated wildfires. These eleven events combined are believed to have caused 349 deaths, with the most significant losses of life occurring during Sandy (131) and the summer-long heat wave and associated drought, which caused over 123 direct deaths (though an estimate of the excess mortality due to heat stress is still unknown).

The eleven events include:

• Southeast/Ohio Valley Tornadoes — March 2–3 2012
• Texas Tornadoes — April 2–3 2012
• Great Plains Tornadoes — April 13–14 2012
• Midwest/Ohio Valley Severe Weather — April 28–May 1 2012
• Southern Plains/Midwest/Northeast Severe Weather — May 25–30 2012
• Rockies/Southwest Severe Weather — June 6–12 2012
• Plains/East/Northeast Severe Weather (“Derecho”) — June 29–July 2 2012
• Hurricane Isaac — August 26–31 2012
• Western Wildfires — Summer–Fall, 2012
• Hurricane Sandy — October 29–31 2012
• U.S. Drought/Heatwave — throughout 2012

Image credit above: ”This Suomi NPP satellite image shows Sandy along the mid-Atlantic coastline with its center about 125 miles southeast of Atlantic City, New Jersey. Sandy was within several hours of landfall on the southern New Jersey coastline.”

America Isn’t Ready For Superstorms. This article follows on the heals of CNN’s very solid hourlong Sunday documentary on “The Coming Storms”, highlighting what we’re all seeing in the data: more frequent and intense storms, worldwide, one consequence of a warming climate. Here’s an excerpt of a CNN article: ”…There is much that we can and should be doing to better anticipate and prepare for extreme weather events. As a nation, we also should be embracing proven cost-effective measures that will reduce the harm that disasters cause and bolster the speed at which communities can recover. In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, there are five important lessons to be learned.

1. Water is more destructive than wind. Media coverage of hurricanes and coastal storms places too much emphasis on wind speed. While images of trees, road signs, and reporters being buffeted by high winds make for good video, they distract from the more serious hazard associated with major storms — coastal flooding from storm surge and inland flooding from torrential rains. There need to be better predictive tools for estimating how much water a storm may bring and when and where it is likely to go…”

Photo credit above: Brittney Misialek, Storm Prediction Center.

Science, Satellites and Superstorms: Preparing For The Next Big One. There is growing concern about the age and viability of America’s weather satellite fleet; a failure of one of these (critical) eye-in-the-sky could temporarily blind meteorologists, and potentially compromise the accuracy of the weather models we rely on to track hurricanes and other life-threatening storms. Here’s an excerpt of a CNN article: “…A month before the 1,000-mile-wide storm struck the Northeast, at the height of the hurricane season, the geostationary satellite that monitors the Caribbean and Atlantic — where Sandy gathered strength — stopped working. While there are dozens of American weather satellites in orbit, these geostationary spacecraft are crucial to predicting dangerous weather patterns. Luckily, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, had a backup satellite to scramble into place. Without it, the early warning for Sandy’s impending strike on the northeast might not have been as accurate. That close call has meteorologists worried that, in this era of shrinking budgets, aging satellites might not get the expensive repairs they need to operate, and NOAA might not be able to purchase backup satellites…” (Sandy image above courtesy of NOAA).

Tweeting To Save The Day. Who calls 911 when you can tweet? As social media becomes a tool many use on a daily basis, our perceptions of how we should send and receive emergency information is morphing, as described in this blog from Scientific American; here’s an excerpt: ”…She cites an amazing statistic: “Three out of four Americans expect help when they post something on Facebook or Twitter” after a disaster. That is, according to a 2012 Red Cross survey, in the aftermath of disaster, 76% of Americans expect help within three hours of posting a request on social media. And that’s without any formal program of social media response. Now of course at the moment the Red Cross keeps an eye on social media feeds during disaster response, but there’s no standard for how such a thing should work.…”

Historic Heat Wave Brings Australia Its Hottest Average Temperature On Record. Jeff Masters has more on the intense (historic) heat gripping Australia in his Wunderground post; here’s an excerpt: “It’s been a summer like no other in the history of Australia, where a sprawling heat wave of historical proportions is entering its second week. Monday, January 7, was the hottest day in Australian history, averaged over the entire country, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The high temperature averaged over Australia was 105°F (40.3°C), eclipsing the previous record of 104°F (40.2°C) set on 21 December 1972. Never before in 103 years of record keeping has a heat wave this intense, wide-spread, and long-lasting affected Australia…”

Photo credit above: “Aerial view of fire at Copping/Forcett, Tasmania, at around 4pm on 4 Jan 2013, taken from an airplane leaving Hobart Airport.” Image credit: Wikipedia. Courtesy: Weather Underground.

Record Fires Rage Across Australia. According to CNN 130 major fires are burning across NSW, or New South Wales. These wildfires are symptoms of the hottest temperatures ever observed Down Under, as reported by AP (check out the AP video): “Firefighters are battling wildfires raging across southeastern Australia as authorities evacuated national parks and warned that blistering temperatures and high winds had led to “catastrophic” conditions in some areas.”

It’s So Hot In Australia That They Added New Colors To The Weather Map. This one made me do a double-take, courtesy of The Atlantic. CNN reports that officials have issued a “catastrophic warning” (which I’ve never heard of before). Here’s an excerpt: ”See that deep purple in the middle of this acne-red weather report from Down Under? That right there represents 129.2° F or 54 °C — it’s a brand-new shade that the Australian bureau of meteorology was forced to add to its heat index because their country is, you know, kind of on fire. “The scale has just been increased today and I would anticipate it is because the forecast coming from the bureau’s model is showing temperatures in excess of 50 degrees,” David Jones, head of the bureau’s climate monitoring and prediction unit, told The Sydney Morning Herald, which notes that the previous record high was 50.7°C  (123°F), recorded in 1960 at Oodnadatta Airport in the southern part of Australia — right around where the new shades of hot are showing up today…”

Map above: Australia Bureau of Meteorology, The Atlantic. More on the Australia’s blistering heat wave from Australia’s The Age.

Perspective. Here’s a Facebook post that captures the magnitude of the heat baking Australia right now: “Perth Weather Live. Thanks to Southern Storm Chasing for this Information. These Temperatures are Correct to the 5th of January.”

Could Hurricane Forecasting Get Better In 2013? Decoded Science takes a look – here’s an excerpt: “…In 2013, there may be a new tool to help hurricane trackers get people ready for the storm. A study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters has discovered that the moisture levels around a hurricane can help determine whether the hurricane will intensify. Satellite data have allowed scientists from ASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., UCLA and the University of Hawaii at Manoa to discover that hurricanes that intensify quickly tend to be those that are in a moist environment. The hurricanes that weaken or stay the same tend to be in areas with much lower relative humidity. While scientists have traditionally thought that hurricanes weaken or intensify based on the conditions inside the hurricane, this study shows that the environment around a hurricane can change the way a hurricane intensifies…”

Image credit: file of Tropical Storm Debby courtesy of NASA.

Soul-Soothing Sunset. Thanks to Mike Hall for another remarkable photo from Lewisport, Kentucky, courtesy of WeatherNation TV.

What I’m Reading. For anyone who has faith in the afterlife, or who has lost a loved one, this will be a comforting, mind-expanding read, one that may change your life. This doctor was an agnostic who was very near death, in a week-long coma, but lived to tell about his NDE, or near death experience. Skeptical? I don’t blame you. But if you’re keeping an open mind you might want to order or download this one. From Amazon: “Thousands of people have had near-death experiences, but scientists have argued that they are impossible. Dr. Eben Alexander was one of those scientists. A highly trained neurosurgeon, Alexander knew that NDEs feel real, but are simply fantasies produced by brains under extreme stress. Then, Dr. Alexander’s own brain was attacked by a rare illness. The part of the brain that controls thought and emotion—and in essence makes us human—shut down completely. For seven days he lay in a coma. Then, as his doctors considered stopping treatment, Alexander’s eyes popped open. He had come back. Alexander’s recovery is a medical miracle. But the real miracle of his story lies elsewhere. While his body lay in coma, Alexander journeyed beyond this world and encountered an angelic being who guided him into the deepest realms of super-physical existence. There he met, and spoke with, the Divine source of the universe itself. Alexander’s story is not a fantasy. Before he underwent his journey, he could not reconcile his knowledge of neuroscience with any belief in heaven, God, or the soul. Today Alexander is a doctor who believes that true health can be achieved only when we realize that God and the soul are real and that death is not the end of personal existence but only a transition.”

HDTV? That’s So 2004. At CES LG showed off a new, 84″ 4K, 3-D Smart TV. Got it? Neither do I. Good luck finding 4k content. Gizmag.com has more details for early (early!) adopters: “LG has shown its 84-inch 4K 3D 84LM960 television in Las Vegas on the eve of CES 2013. This is LG’s first 84-inch Ultra HD TV, and based on these glimpses of it from the floor, it certainly looks like the company got it right on the first try…The Smart TV comes with a dual-core processor and access to over 1,400 applications. It also features LG’s new Magic Remote, which allows users to input commands through gestures and voice commands.”

Midwinter Relief. Highs were 10-15 degrees above average again yesterday, ranging from 29 Alexandria, 30 at Redwood Falls to 33 St. Cloud, 35 Twin Cities and 37 at Eau Claire.

Paul’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

TODAY: Plenty of sun, drippy. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 35 WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds, still mild for January. Low: 26 THURSDAY: Clouds increase, light rain late. High: 37 FRIDAY: Light rain or drizzle. Still mild. Low: 29. High: 38 SATURDAY: Bitter Winds. Light snow or flurries. Metro coating – but a few inches over the Red River Valley. Low: 13. High: 16 (winds gusting past 35 mph will make it feel subzero by late afternoon). SUNDAY: Cold sun, feels like -10 F. Low: 3. High: 10 MONDAY: Blue sky, a numbing breeze. Low: 4. High: 18 TUESDAY: Next clipper, not as cold. Low: 10. High: 26 * the coldest air of the winter (in all probability) arrives by the end of next week; highs near zero, lows from -10 to -15.

* photo of Canoe Creek State Park, Pennsylvania courtesy of “Spice of Life” on Facebook.

Climate Stories….

“While temperatures vary on a local and regional scale, globally it has now been 27 years since the world experienced a month that was colder than average…Around the world, 2013 could be the hottest ever recorded by modern instrumentation, according to a recent study by Britain’s Met Office. It said that, based on the rising background warming trend, 2013 will be 0.43 degrees to 0.71 degrees hotter globally than the average temperature between 1961 and 1990, with a ‘‘best fit’’ of 0.57 degrees warmer…”  – from Australia’s The Age. Graph above: NOAA.

Australia Feels Heat Of Climate Change. Here’s an excerpt from a story at Bloomberg News: “More than 100 wildfires are raging across the driest inhabited continent, and the country registered a national average temperature of 40.33 degrees Celsius (104.6 degrees Fahrenheit), the hottest day in more than a century. But while naysayers continue to question the difference between weather and climate, scientists in Australia are now displaying signs of “debate fatigue” as policy makers fail to deliver on the goal of restricting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. “Those of us who spend our days trawling — and contributing to — the scientific literature on climate change are becoming increasingly gloomy about the future of human civilization,” said Liz Hanna, an environmental-health scientist and epidemiologist at the Australian National University, to the Sydney Morning Herald. “We are well past the time of niceties, of avoiding the dire nature of what is unfolding, and politely trying not to scare the public.”

Adapt Or Die: Why The Environmental Buzzword Of 2013 Will Be “Resilience”. Time Magazine does a good job of summarizing the implications of not only Sandy, but record drought, more intense rainfall, and an apparent eastward shift of tornado alley in recent years; here’s an excerpt: ”Journalists and politicians have short memories. Just two months ago, Superstorm Sandy was everywhere on the news. And it wasn’t just weather porn — there was serious debate about the impact climate change had on the storm, and about the now-obvious need to prepare cities for worse to come. Bloomberg Businessweek put it on the cover—”It’s Global Warming, Stupid“—and in my TIME cover story, I focused on adaptations that cities like New York could make now to ensure that the next storm wouldn’t be so destructive. Politicians like New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo emphasized the need to rebuild better from Sandy, to ensure that the billions that would go into storm response would also flow to the sorts of global warming adaptation initiatives that would climate-proof cities…”

America’s “Greenest Street” Provides Blueprint For Sustainable Urban Development. Gizmag.com has the story; here’s a snippet: “A streetscape that includes natural landscaping, bicycle lanes, wind powered lighting, storm water diversion for irrigation, drought-resistant native plants and innovative “smog-eating” concrete has earned Cermak road in Chicago the title of “greenest Street in America” according to the Chicago Department of Transport (CDOT)….”

Graphic credit above: “The regeneration of Cermak Road includes new sidewalks with permanent wind/solar powered pedestrian lights.” (Image: CDOT)

The Global Warming Hot List For 2013. Here’s an excerpt from Mother Nature Network: ”…As for the inevitable, here’s your dose of 2013 punditry:

Business Week’s stark, post-Sandy cover trumpeting “It’s Global Warming, Stupid” will be the herald of a partial media awakening. On Sunday, CNN re-entered the game with an hour-long, prime-time special on climate and severe storms. Newsrooms will follow the leads of the New York Times and the Associated Press and bolster their coverage, and nonprofits like Climate Central, Inside Climate News and TDC will find a wider audience.

• Cracks will form in the Republican Party’s de facto ban on taking climate change seriously, and the self-imposed climate omerta we saw from both Presidential candidates and debate moderators will erode.
• TV meteorologists, one of the last strongholds of any kind of science on television, will feel more empowered to connect the climate dots – partly due to the Forecast the Facts campaign, but also due to how bloody awful the world’s weather has become…”

Read More

18 days/row with temperatures below freezing at MSP (December 19 to January 6).

36 F. high in the Twin Cities Monday, the first day at or above freezing since December 19.

23 F. average high on January 7.

37 F. high on January 7, 2012.

Coating of snow possible Saturday (about as exciting as it gets looking out 2 weeks).

-10 F. wind chills possible in the metro area by Sunday.

Big Swings The rumors are true: we may pick up a third of an inch of rain on Thursday; coming 5 days before what is (historically) the coldest day of the year. Mark Seeley reports a 4X increase in midwinter rain and ice across Minnesota since 2000. Yes, this seems to be a trend. Soak up the relative warmth: 4 more days above freezing this week; 40 F. possible by Thursday and Friday. Our 3 inches of snow on the ground may shrivel to a dirty inch by late week. We are still marooned in an amazingly persistent (snow) drought. Take advantage of this week’s break from wind chill, because the coldest air of winter bullies its way into Minnesota in 1-2 weeks. Models are flip-flopping on how cold (and how long) but 2-4 days of subzero fun seems imminent, starting late next week. In spite of a rising sun angle; temperatures don’t start to budge much until late January and early February. Today’s blog includes a record heatwave for Australia; snow on the ground over 66 percent of the USA; and only 936 tornadoes in 2012 – a result of stubborn heat and drought. For now, dig out your second-string (slush-proof) shoes and help me welcome an odd meteorological hiccup of warmth – the January Thaw!

Where’s The Snow? NOAA’s latest modeled snowcover map shows some 4-9″ amounts from near Sandstone and Taylors Falls to Sauk Rapids, Benson, Marshall and Granite Falls, but I was struck by how little snow there is on the ground over the Red River Valley and eastern North Dakota.

Mildest Week Of January? Yes, I have a hunch this is about as good as it’s going to get until the very end of January or early February – 5 days in a row with daytime highs above freezing, maybe mid to upper 30s by Friday. By Sunday highs will be stuck in the low teens with a wind chill ranging from -5 to -10 F, based on ECMWF data.

A Hiccup of Pacific Air. This relatively mild spell is coming as a relief to most (but not all) Minnesotans, a chance to thaw out for a few afternoons, do some yard work without fear of frostbite or numb toes. Afternoon highs should reach or exceed 32 F. every day into Friday; expect a BIG temperature tumble by Saturday. Graph above: Iowa State.

Warm Enough For…Rain? The ECMWF model, valid Thursday evening, shows the main surge of rain pushing across the Midwest toward St. Louis and Chicago, a little very light rain or drizzle may brush parts of Minnesota, but the European model is whisking most of the moisture to our south and east. Again. If it does precipitate – it should be warm enough for light rain.

Dueling Model (Runs). I’m going to shows you 2 runs of the same weather model, initialized with slightly different (current) data. The 12z run Monday shows a sharp, concentrated burst of numbing air between next Wednesday and Friday, January 16-18, maybe 3 nights below zero. The 12z morning run has been consistently warmer than the evening 00z run:

Two Waves Of Numbing Air? The 00z run of the GFS isn’t quite as cold, but it sustains the polar breeze longer with 2 distinct surges of bitter air, the first late next week, a second shot of bitter air after Monday, January 21. So there’s some debate as to how long the chill will last, but little doubt it’s going to be plenty cold by the end of next week.

Temperature Trends. It appears that the Mother Lode of bitter air may pass just to our north across Ontario, between January 15-21, according to NOAA NAEFS experimental temperature forecasts. Yes, when Alaska is unusually warm we tend to be unreasonably cold.

USA Snow Cover. At least report 66.6% of the lower 48 states – two thirds of America, reported snow on the ground. For a NOAA loop showing how the snow cover has changed since October click here.

Remembering The Epic Blizzard of ’96. AccuWeather takes a walk down memory lane – a storm that won’t soon be forgotten in the northeast: “A powerful nor’easter unloaded 2 feet of snow and more from Virginia to southeastern New England on Jan. 6-8, 1996. Up to 4 feet of snow was unleashed. Philadelphia was at the heart of the storm, getting buried by 31 inches of snow. The Blizzard of ’96 still stands as the all-time biggest snowstorm for Philadelphia. High winds howled across the region, causing massive drifting and blowing of snow that significantly reduced the visibility….”

* The Capital Weather Gang takes a nostalgic look back at the Infamous Blizzard of ’96 here.

936 Tornadoes Nationwide In 2012. That’s a low number (25th greatest number since 1959) and that is due largely to record heat and drought gripping much of American for much of late spring and summer – reducing wind shear, pushing the zone of favorable tornado conditions way north, into Canada. Here are a few statistics from Greg Carbin at NOAA SPC:

First Tornado……………………………….8:45 AM CST, 9-Jan (EF0-TX)
Last Tornado………………………………..5:00 PM EST, 26-Dec (EF1-NC)
2012 Total Tornadoes…………………………936 (Ranked 25th since 1950)
Record Annual Total…………………………1817 in 2004
Greatest 2012 Monthly Total……………………206 in April
Greatest Monthly Total on Record……………….759 in April 2011
2012 Tornado Days…………………………….170
Annual Average……………………………….178 (50-years, 1962-2011)
Record Tornado Days in Any Year………………..211 in 2000

Why So Few Tornadoes Last Year? I created a 2:30 YouTube clip explaining why the tornado count was so low in 2012 – just about the only silver lining to a year of record heat and debilitating drought. Video courtesy of WeatherNation TV.

Record Heat Wave Grips Australia. Intense, historic heat is gripping Australia, sparking water shortages and raging wildfires. From climate scientist (and Australian resident) Stephan Lewandowsky: “Never before in recorded history has Australia experienced 5 consecutive days of national-average maximum temperatures above 39C. Until today. And this heat is expected to continue for another 24-48 hours, extending the new record run to 6 or even 7 days. For context, the previous record of 4 days occurred once only (1973) and 3 days has occurred only twice (1972,2002).”

Map above courtesy of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The latest observations for southern Australia are here. Most thermometers in Australia don’t go above 50 C.

Perspective. Australia is nearly as large as the lower 48 states of the USA – what is unusual is the extent (and intensity) of 100 degree plus heat Down Under. More on the unprecedented heat at scienceblogs.com.

Tasmania’s Fires Prompt PM’s Grim Climate Warning. Here’s an excerpt from Australia’s The Age: “Prime Minister Julia Gillard underscored the dangers facing Australia this summer from climate change as she saw Tasmanian bushfire ruins, and warned people to expect more. Ms Gillard said New South Wales faced potentially catastrophic conditions on Tuesday, and the crisis was not over in Tasmania. While the south-east fires that devastated Dunalley were easing, the island faced a new emergency warning in north-west dairy country near Mawbanna, where a fast-running fire threatened the community…”

Photo credit above: “Westpac Police rescue helicopter crewman Sgt. Matthew Drumm surveys the fire near Dunalley, east of the Tasmanian capital of Hobart, Australia, on Saturday, Jan. 5, 2013. Australian officials battled a series of wildfires amid scorching temperatures across the country on Saturday, with one blaze destroying dozens of homes in the island state of Tasmania.” (AP Photo/Chris Kidd, Pool)

A Reluctant Sun. Yes, the sun is still low in the sky, but we’ve picked up nearly 13 minutes of daylight since December 21. This photo was taken near King of Prussia, Pennsylvania at the Valley Forge National Historical Park.

Nice Ear Muffs. What was I thinking? Here’s a clip from January 24, 1985, when a major blizzard was pushing across Minnesota – courtesy of Tom Oszman and his remarkable library of local TV clips going back decades, which you can access (for free) at  tcmedianow.com.

Your Android Phone Could Help Scientists Predict Your Weather. Although measuring air temperature could be problematic (with that fancy Samsung Galaxy III in your pocket most of the day) extracting air pressure information seems to make more sense – can it really help better initialize weather models? Wired.com takes a look; here’s an excerpt: “The Android phone in your pocket could help scientists do a better job of predicting the weather — exactly where you are. Atmospheric scientists are working with an app developer to take air pressure information that is already being collected from thousands of Android phones and feed it into sophisticated new climate models. If they get enough buy-in from Android owners, you may be able to receive warning hours in advance about thunderstorms and tornadoes coming to your precise location with far more certainty than you can today...”

The 13 Safest Cars For 2013. Gizmag.com has the story; here’s an excerpt: “The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) has released its list of safest vehicles for the 2013 model year. In all, the list includes 117 cars that were awarded a Top Safety Pick. Thirteen cars were given the Top Safety Pick+ award, which is an even higher award for vehicle safety. These vehicles go deeper to bring a safer ride to drivers and passengers, and we’re going to take a quick look at each one…”

Aaaaah. Few other places on Earth would greet 30s with relief. But in Minnesota, in early January, we call 36 F. a “warm front”. Admit it, it really did feel good out there yesterday; afternoon highs in the 30s statewide. Old Man Winter will take the rest of the week off, but return with a vengeance on Saturday.

Paul’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota

TODAY: Mostly cloudy, above average temperatures. Winds: S 10. High: 33 TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and cool. Low: 23 WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, still milder than average for mid-January. High: 33 THURSDAY: Almost March-like. Rain or drizzle possible later in the day. Low: 25. High: 35 FRIDAY: Last mild day. Mostly cloudy. Low: 28. High: 36 SATURDAY: Burst of light snow. Windy & colder. Low: 15. HIgh: 19 SUNDAY: Partly sunny, feels like -10 F. Low: 8. High: 13 MONDAY: Lot’s of sun – brisk. Low: 5. High: near 20

* image above courtesy of The Burlington Free Press in Burlington, Vermont.

Climate Stories…

“….And I can say right now, this very day we can look out the window and there’s CO2, carbon dioxide, pouring out of tailpipes, pouring out of buildings, pouring out of smokestacks. And yet we can’t see it, it’s invisible. The fundamental causes of this global problem are invisible to us. And likewise the impacts are largely invisible to us as well unless you know where to look. So it’s a problem that first of all we can’t see. And secondly it’s a problem that is seemingly faceless. It’s not like terrorists who we can imagine who are coming after us trying to kill us and challenge our fundamental values. It’s a problem that we can’t see, that’s going to have long term impacts that aren’t going to just impact us now, but impact us into the future; impact our children and our grandchildren“… – Anthony Leiserowitz, in an interview with Bill Moyers.

CNN’s Hour-Long Climate Change Special Ignores Emissions. I watched the Sunday evening special on storm intensity and frequency, and I thought (overall) it was very well done. Media Matters has a bone to pick – no direct attribution to man-made burning of fossil fuels – here’s an excerpt of their critique: “A CNN special on the threat of more frequent extreme weather events fueled by climate change ignored the role of manmade greenhouse gas emissions in warming the atmosphere. The hour-long program, titled “The Coming Storms,” set out to examine “the factors that made the impact of superstorm Sandy so devastating,” featuring “insights from researchers and scientists on climate change[.]” CNN did explore how climate change will amplify the impacts of disastrous weather events like Hurricane Sandy. Given the network’s track record of paying scant attention to climate change even while reporting on its consequences, it was a commendable effort. But CNN failed to make the distinction that climate change is not a natural phenomenon; rather, it is driven by human activity…”

Australia Scorching, Gillard Blames Climate Change. Here’s a snippet from Deutsche Welle: “Australian has been bracing for near-record temperatures, with bushfires ablaze in five out of six states. Police in Tasmania are still searching for those reported missing after fire swept across the island last week. Prime Minister Julia Gillard warned Australians of high bushfire risks in coming days, highlighting global climate warming as the probable cause. “We do know over time that as a result of climate change we are going to see more extreme weather events and conditions.” She urged residents in vulnerable bush areas to decide in advance whether to attempt to save their homes, if fire strikes, or opt to evacuate…” (photo courtesy of Reuters).

An Antidote For Climate Contrarianism. Here’s a snippet from a New York Times story: “…Conservatives will find a few points in the book that especially resonate. For instance, while Dr. Emanuel assails the irrationality of dismissing an entire branch of science as some kind of elaborate hoax — many Republicans have done lately — as he also takes green groups to task on certain points, including their skepticism about nuclear power. He sees nuclear energy as one of the few ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, which contribute to global warming, on a large scale. And he is doubtful that renewable energy sources like wind and solar power can be ramped up fast enough to meet the challenge. If Dr. Emanuel has been talking about his politics more lately, so have some of his colleagues, like Richard Alley of Penn State, one of the country’s most notable explainers of climate science, who describes himself as a churchgoing Republican…”

Read More

As we enter 2013, an event that can energize conservationists and offer a preview of the natural resources agenda for the upcoming legislative session is the annual DNR Roundtable.  It is advertised as bringing citizen stakeholders together to discuss important fisheries, wildlife, ecological and water resource issues.  And it does!

I enjoy it because of seeing so many folks I like and used to work regularly with.  The two days of convening can be a great networking session, seeing and talking to DNR experts, conservation activists, interested legislators and citizens across the state.  I always learn about new issues, and new takes and information on continuing issues.

DNR Commissioner Tom Landwehr will kick off the Roundtable by giving a summary of 2012 for the department, and a preview of what to expect for 2013.  Attendees can then decide on three different concurrent sessions for fisheries, wildlife, and ecological and water concerns.  There will be joint sessions this year of these concerns too.

Issues to be discussed for the above sessions include aquatic invasive species and Asian Carp, native prairie protection and grassland management, and Clean Water Legacy projects and groundwater consumption.  Informal meetings after dinner on Friday night can be helpful to visit with colleagues about what you learned in the session (s) you attended.  The Roundtable’s end on Saturday brings helpful session summaries and reflections from the Commissioner’s office.

I especially appreciate the DNR’s inclusiveness of the attendees by always asking folks:  What might the DNR do about the identified issues; and What questions can the DNR, or other conservation groups, answer about the complexity of issues?