Conservation Minnesota
Partisan Politics
“Men are elected to office, not parties. . .”
Willmar Tribune – April 23, 1913
In politics and legislative maneuvering it is sometimes a little dangerous to get too cute because it can easily backfire. Such was the case in the 1913 legislative session when some Republican legislators thought they invented a cute way to kill a bill to expand nonpartisan elections to county officials.
In the early 1900s political allegiances were shifting rapidly in Minnesota. Republican stalwarts who had dominated Minnesota politics since the Civil War were facing new movements of progressives and populists from multiple different directions. State politics and the Republican Party were deeply divided around the issues of prohibition. One of the expressions of that fraction was whether local officials should be elected under party labels. The “wet” faction typically favored the party machine in both parties. On the opposite side progressives were divided amongst those who favored total state prohibition or giving counties the option.
In 1912 Gov. A. O. Eberhart, a progressive, made a bold move to preserve his governorship in the face of opposition from stalwarts. To catch on to the fervor around the Teddy Roosevelt Bull Moose run for president, he called a special session for the purpose of making judicial and large city races nonpartisan. Eberhart won reelection handily with several new progressives also winning on the coattails of Roosevelt who carried Minnesota. Based on their successes from that election, progressives, both county option and prohibitionists, set their sights in the 1913 legislature on expanding the nonpartisan races to all local officials.
When SF412 reached the Senate floor it was evident that it would pass easily, but it was then that a handful of stalwart wet Republicans hatched what they thought was an ingenious plan. Partisan Republican stalwart Sen. A. J. Rockne from Zumbrota was credited with coming up with the poison pill strategy. He convinced Sen. Frank Clague from Redwood Falls to offer an amendment to include the state legislature under the nonpartisan election provisions. He was convinced from signals he received from the House leadership that such a poison pill amendment would cause the bill to die quietly in committee once it reached the House. The progressive senators were caught off guard by the solid argument that what is good for county officials should also be good for the legislature. The amendment and the bill passed by wide margins out of the Senate.
Things started to unravel on the stalwarts’ poison pill strategy when the liquor lobby decided to quietly support the bill behind the scenes because they thought this was a way to reduce Republican influence over the legislature. They feared the Republicans would continue trending towards a full prohibitionist philosophy. Then prohibitionists started to support the initiative because they thought it was a way to win local elections by avoiding splitting their votes between those that support a county option or full prohibition. Then the Bull Moose Republicans jumped on the bandwagon because this would remove the difficulty of whether they should run under the banner of fledgling Bull Moose Progressive Party or the Republican Party.
With strong public pressure mounting in support of the nonpartisan legislature, it eventually received final passage after a contentious conference committee. Several of the surprised conspirators would vote against their provision on final passage after the conference committee. As a result, the Minnesota Legislature remained nonpartisan from 1913 until the early 1970s.
The Minnesota Senate Republicans today probably could have learned a lesson from the last Republican majority in 1913 to control the Senate that partisan political maneuvers can sometimes backfire. This week on a strictly party line vote the Senate rejected the confirmation of Ellen Anderson to be chair of the Public Utilities Commission (PUC). Anderson had served with distinction in the Senate since 1992. She had shown herself extremely effective in reshaping Minnesota’s energy policy by carefully building positive coalitions. She was widely credited with playing a major role in developing Minnesota’s nation leading renewable energy standard, mercury reduction plans and energy conservation programs. As a result, she developed some enemies among the more conservative elements of the Republican Party even though all of these provisions passed with bipartisan support to be signed into law by a Republican governor.
The rejection of Anderson’s confirmation came across as petty partisan politics and sour grapes that resulted in the governor blasting the legislature in a press conference. The rejection of the confirmation will likely be viewed in our modern political history as a colossal blunder. Anderson was somewhat constrained by the statutory limitations of the PUC, but now she will be back out in the advocacy realm not under those constraints. Given her past success on advocating progressive energy policy by building coalitions and public support, she will be far more effective on the outside of the PUC. The governor has offered her a position as his energy policy director and he will now have more motivation to defend those policies with Anderson on his side to shape the debate.
Back in 1913 after the passage of the non-partisan legislative election provision, the St. Cloud Daily Times boldly, but as history would prove, mistakenly, concluded “truly the day of political parties is passing away”. The 2012 legislature proves that partisan politics is still contaminating our political process, yet making the same mistakes a century later. The good news is Minnesota’s champion of energy independence and cleaner air has greater freedoms to do battle in the policy arena and maybe with a little motivation to boot.
Denver Blizzard (remarkably quiet into mid February close to home)
36 F. high temperature Thursday in the Twin Cities (lingering clouds/fog kept temperatures 4-8 degrees cooler than they would have been otherwise).
25 F. average high for February 2.
12 F. high temperature a year ago, February 2, 2011.
14.9″ snow so far this winter at KMSP.
60.4″ snowfall last winter as of February 2.
1-2 FEET of snow possible in Denver by Saturday morning, probably the biggest snowstorm of winter. Denver public schools are cancelled today.
Winter Storm Watch: posted for southwestern Iowa.
“The trouble with weather forecasting is that it’s right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.” – Patrick Young. File photo is from 1993, when I covered the “Storm of the Century” for KARE-11. Good memories.
Super Bowl Forecast for Indianapolis: flurries, highs near 37. Check out a live webcam from Earth Networks (formerly WeatherBug) here.
$45 billion: estimated cost of extreme flooding across Thailand in 2011. Source: World Bank.
“Bismarck, N.D., has had one-fifth its normal snow, Boston a third. Buffalo is three feet below normal for snowfall this year. Midland, Texas, has had more snow this season than Minneapolis or Chicago.” – from an MSNBC.com article on a lack of real winter weather across the USA.
“January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, the Rutgers Snow Lab reported yesterday, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record…. the winter of 2011 – 2012 has a chance to end up as the second least snowy winter in U.S. history.” – Dr. Jeff Masters in his latest Wunderblog. Details below.
“The winter of 2011-2012 is already among the top 20 warmest in historical memory, and is likely to earn a third- or fourth-place record in parts of New York and New Jersey, said Art DeGaetano, a climatologist and professor of Earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. That conforms to the trend of the past decade, which has seen three of the four warmest winters since meteorological data collection began, he said.” – from a Scientific American article below.
“The National Flood Insurance Program has written 5.5 million policies in more than 21,000 communities covering $1.2 trillion worth of property (in the USA). As for the vaunted private market, for-profit insurance companies write between 180,000 and 200,000 policies in a given year. In other words, that is less than 5% of all flood insurance in the United States. This federally subsidized program underwrites the other 95%. Without such insurance, it’s not complicated: many waterlogged victims of 2011, whether from record Midwestern floods or Hurricane Irene, would simply have no money to rebuild.” – from an article in Le Monde. Details below.
Amazing new iPad app for tracking severe weather. Details on “iDamage” below.
A Bad Winter To Be A Snowman. Thanks to Twin Cities meteorologist Tony Perkins for reminding us how hard it is to be a snowman this winter.
Daffodil Alert. Thanks to topsy.com and “epilnivek”, who used Instagram to snap this photo of his daffodils sprouting in the suburbs of Memphis. I know – it’s too early to even think about spring fever, but I just can’t help myself.
Early Spring? Exhibit A. Thanks to my dear sister, Joan, who lives in Lancaster, PA (about 70 miles west of Philadephia) for sharing these photos of tulips and daffodils sprouting in her yard. In fact the daffodils came up in early January!
From Winter Fest to “Slush Fest”. When in Rome…do the best you can with you’ve got, right? A dire lack of snow is forcing city leaders to be very creative these days. MLive.com has the details: “The Boyne Area Chamber of Commerce planned its annual Winter Fest for the usual February timing, when mounds of snow and frozen Lake Charlevoix make for great ice fishing, skiing and other winter sports. In fact, here’s what Chamber Executive Director Jim Baumann told the Petoskey News on Jan. 27: “A new part of the festival we’re really excited about is the skiing and snowshoeing.” That was before the 46-degree temperatures on Tuesday pretty much blew any hope for sufficient snow.”
Watches And Warnings. Dense fog remains a problem from the eastern Dakotas across much of central Minnesota to Madison and the Chicago area, while Blizzard Warnings are posted from the Denver area into western Kansas and Nebraska, a Winter Storm Watch stretching into southwestern Iowa. Map courtesy of NOAA – click here for the latest information.
Rare February Blizzard. The NAM model prints out 12-18″ snow from the suburbs of Denver across much of Nebraska, some 6-10″ amounts possible in the Omaha area, a “plowable” snowfall for far southwestern Iowa. Map courtesy of WeatherCaster.
Marchlike Weekend – Cooling Trend Next Week. Although I still don’t see any more subzero nights, temperatures will return to “average” levels by the middle of next week, highs in the low to mid 20s by Wednesday of next week. A quick rebound is likely, highs rebounding into the 30s by the third week of February.
Extended Outlook: No Arctic Air In Sight. Is it possible we’ve seen our last subzero nights of winter? We’ve only picked up 3 nights of negative numbers (all in January), and I don’t see any numbing air through Feb. 18. Highs reach the 30s (consistently) the third week of February.
What Winter? AP and MSNBC.com have more details on the Wimpy Winter of ’12: “WASHINGTON — Snow has been missing in action for much of the U.S. the last couple months. But it’s not just snow. It’s practically the season that’s gone AWOL. “What winter?” asked Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. For the Lower 48, January was the third-least snowy on record, according to the Global Snow Lab at Rutgers University. Records for the amount of ground covered by snow go back to 1967. Last year, more than half the nation was covered in snow as a Groundhog Day blizzard barreled across the country, killing 36 people and causing $1.8 billion in damage. This year, less than a fifth of the country outside of Alaska has snow on the ground.”
Photo credit above: Kiichiro Sato/AP. “A year ago on Feb. 2, 2011, hundreds of cars were stranded on Lake Shore Drive in Chicago, Ill., seen at left. The same stretch is seen on Wednesday.“
“6 More Weeks Of Non-Winter”. Dr. Jeff Masters has an interesting evaluation of our current “winter”, trying to put things into perspective. Here’s an excerpt from his excellent Wunderground Blog: “This January’s remarkable warmth and lack of snow contrasts starkly with what happened during the previous two winters. January 2011 was the 5th snowiest and 35th coldest in U.S. history, and January 2010 was the 7th snowiest and 55th coldest. Wunderground meteorologist Angela Fritz had this to say in her blog post yesterday about what’s been going on this winter: In December, we were reporting that the lower-48′s unseasonably warm weather and lack of snow was due to a particularly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. The Arctic Oscillation is a measure of the jet stream’s strength. A positive AO is a stronger than average jet stream, and it tends to keep cold air bottled up in the Arctic. During a positive AO, the Arctic is colder than average, and the mid-latitudes are warmer than average. In December and early January, the AO was positive. In mid-January, the AO went negative, which we expect to have the opposite impact. A weak jet steam means cold, Arctic air can escape to the south, and that’s what we’ve been seeing in Europe this week.“
Image credit above: “Winter temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during the period 1895 – 2011 increased at a rate of about 1.6°F per century. The warmest winter was 1999 – 2000, and the coldest was 1978 – 1979.” Image credit: Weather Underground and NOAA/NCDC.
WGN TV’s Tim McGill: “Meteorologists Dread Groundhog Day.” More from TVSpy: “I wanted to take this opportunity to launch a preemptive strike by whacking the weasel with some facts about his forecasts,” McGill wrote on the WGN weather blog. “Most meteorologists dread Groundhog Day.” McGill, who has been a meteorologist for 26 years, says the groundhog is accurate in his prediction just 39% of the time. “Punxutawney Phil is a punk when it comes to weather forecasting,” McGill wrote. “We may as well ask a giraffe for stock picks, he could probably be just as accurate.”
Predicting Temperatures: NOAA Vs. Punxsutawney Phil. NOAA has a recap of recent predictions from the furry prognosticator in Pennsylvania, and how he stacked up against NOAA’s supercomputers outside Washington D.C.: “The table (above) gives a snapshot by year since 1988 whether Phil saw his shadow or not along with the corresponding monthly national average temperature departures for both February and March. The table shows no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of this analysis. Since 1993, the U.S. national temperature has been above normal 10 times in February, 11 times in March, below normal 6 times in February, 3 times in March, and near normal 3 times in February and 5 times in March.”
Two FEET Of Snow For The Mile High City? NOAA’s NCEP models are predicting anywhere from 1-2 feet of snow for Denver over the next 36-48 hours – I have a hunch KDEN will see delays, even some cancellations. If your travels take you into Denver through Friday night you may want to consider a Plan B.
Biggest Snowstorm Of The Winter For Denver? More details on the imminent snow blitz from The Denver Post: “Denver’s biggest snowstorm this year could dump a month’s worth a snow by the weekend, according to the latest National Weather Service forecast. The city is expected to receive at least 6 inches of snow, which would be more than February’s 30-year average of 5.7 inches for the month. TV weather forecasters and weather enthusiasts on Twitter tonight are interpreting models to say Denver could get a foot or more by the time the storm moves out late Friday or sometime Saturday.”
Snowpocalypse In Italy. Giorgio Cappelli sent us these photos from central Italy. He reports 200-250 centimeters of snow from the current system. That’s anywhere from 75-100″ of snow. Entire towns in Tuscany have been buried under 6-10 foot drifts. Check out his photo album here, courtesy of meteonetwork.it.
Brrrrrr. While we search for a real winter, jet stream winds have buckled over Europe, plunging bitter air southward from Siberia and Scandanavia. “A warm covered pug dog strolls on a street in Gelsenkirchen, Germany, on a cold winter Thursday, Feb. 2, 2012. Germany faces freezing temperatures coming from Russia down to minus 15 degrees Celsius (5 degrees Fahrenheit). (AP Photo/Martin Meissner).”
A Four-Wheel Drive Ferrari? I think the new FXX may be all-wheel drive, but the home of Ferrari (Maranello, Italy) has been buried under 3 foot snowfall amounts. More details: “An employee leaves the Ferrari headquarters in Maranello, central Italy, Thursday, Feb. 2, 2012. Ferrari has canceled Friday’s official launch of its new Formula One car because of the adverse weather conditions affecting the north of Italy. Heavy snow has been falling since Tuesday afternoon and Ferrari has now decided to cancel the ceremony and will simply publish pictures and technical details online. (AP Photo/Marco Vasini).”
Record-Breaking Territory. CoolWx.com has a terrific site, one that displays U.S. and global maps showing which towns are approaching or surpassing all-time record highs, lows, precipitation, snowfall, etc. Note how all the current records are clustered in Europe, reflecting the recent surge of arctic air and record snowfalls.
Photo Of The Day: “Stopcicle”. A raging ice storm triggered a very strange effect on a stop sign in Ontario, Canada. Neatorama has the details: “This picture was taken yesterday in Mirabel, Quebec. There was some discussion of its location at reddit, where we are assured that in France, stop signs say “Stop” instead of “Arret.” Link -via reddit (Image credit: benim ergani).”
“No winter lasts forever; no spring skips its turn.” – Hal Borland
Drought-Free Dallas? According to the latest NOAA Drought Monitor the immediate Dallas/Ft. Worth metro area is drought-free for the first time since July 5, 2011. That said, most of the rest of Texas is experiencing extreme to exceptional drought conditions, but at least there has been some relief over far northeastern counties.
Minnesota Drought Outlook: “Persistence” Over Minnesota. NOAA is reflecting my (gut feel): that Minnesota’s drought may get worse before things (hopefully) improve later this year. No question we’re stuck in a dry rut, one that may impact agriculture and lake water levels if we don’t pick up a few significant storms in the next 60 days.
Sorry Phil. CPC, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, is predicting (much) warmer than average conditions over the eastern 2/3rds of America, the result of a persistent La Nina and winds aloft blowing from the Pacific vs. the Yukon. Place your bets. 6 more weeks of winter? Don’t bet on it.
App Of The Day. If you’re a weather geek (uh…weather enthusiast) this is one app you should add to your iCollection: iDamage. You can see severe weather reports in real-time for Minnesota, or anywhere in the USA. You get visual and audio alerts as well, and these are customizable, so you can only hear alerts for specific states or cities you’re interested in. It’s the best $1.99 I’ve spent recently, and if you download it on your iPad it auto-downloads to your iPhone as well. “iDamage pushes storm damage reports originating from trained spotters, emergency responders, and members of the public to your iPhone, iPod Touch, or iPad (in native resolution). If you chase tornados, hail, or high winds for a living, or volunteer to assist your community during severe weather events, or just want to improve your situational awareness on days when storms might pop up, iDamage is the app for you.”
Seinfeld Acura NSX Spot. I’m a jaded skeptic (from standing too close to the Doppler over the years) but this is a very funny commercial for the (breathtaking) upcoming hybrid Acura NSX (model year 2014 or 2015, I believe). Check out the YouTube Clip (with a cameo appearance by Jay Leno). “Jerry Seinfeld is so excited about the new Acura NSX that he will stop at nothing to acquire the very first one. Check out the extended version of Acura’s big game commercial. See what else Jerry would do for the first new NSX at www.acura.com. NSX projected debut in next three years.”
The Foggy February Blues. Trying to predict when a (rare) February fog will lift is problematic. Light winds, a strong inversion (warm air aloft, colder air near the ground), and a low sun angle makes it difficult for fog to dissipate. The canopy of crud kept temperatures stuck in the 30s over central Minnesota; highs ranging from 32 at St. Cloud to 36 in the Twin Cities, 41 at Alexandria and 48 at Rochester.
“No matter how rich you become, how famous or powerful, when you die the size of your funeral will still pretty much depend on the weather.” – Michael Pritchard
WeatherNation. Coming (soon) to Minnesota. Stay tuned for launch details on America’s newest all-weather channel.
Paul’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
TODAY: More fog, patchy clouds. Skies may brighten from time to time. Winds: NE 7-12. High: 38 FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, still milder than average. Low: 25SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Storm stays south, over Iowa. High: 39
SUNDAY: More sun, still very pleasant. Low: 24. High: 37
MONDAY: Intervals of sun, March-like. Low: 26. High: 41
TUESDAY: Clearing, turning breezy and colder. Low: 16. High: 28
WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sunshine, milder than average. Low: 15. High: 31
THURSDAY: Another (colder) front arrives. Low: 18. High: 33 * significantly colder by the end of next week – highs next Friday in the teens (north) to low to mid 20s (south).
Fluke…or Trend? Yes, that furry little vermin, Punxsutawney Phil, did in fact see his shadow, dooming us to 6 more weeks of winter. To which I ask, “what winter”? The USA is on track to experience the second least snowiest winter since 1895. According to Scientific American this winter will easily wind up in the “Top 20 Warmest”; my hunch is we’ll wind up the Top 10. Since 2000 America has experienced 3 of the 4 warmest winters on record. Wunderblog’s Dr. Jeff Masters reports, “The five warmest U.S. winters since record keeping began in 1895 have all occurred since 1992.” Oh no, Paul is launching into one of his climate change diatribes again. Spare me. But here’s the thing: weather and climate are flip sides of the same coin. You can’t talk about one without acknowledging the other. La Nina has hijacked our jet stream, keeping winds blowing from the Pacific, while those same high-altitude winds have buckled over Europe, spawning record 90+ inch snows as far south as Italy! I’ve never seen anything like it. Denver picks up 1-2 feet of snow; the storm passes south of Minnesota. No significant snow for our zip code thru mid February, highs mostly in the 30s. Our endless November drags on.
“The five warmest U.S. winters since record keeping began in 1895 have all occurred since 1992, with the winter of 1999 – 2000 holding the record for warmest winter. Winter average temperature in the contiguous U.S. has been increasing by about 1.6°F per century since 1895.” – Dr. Jeff Masters, from his most recent Wunderblog post.
Climate Change Is Putting Punxsutawney Phil Out Of A Job. The Atlantic has the story; here’s an excerpt: “With the non-winter we’ve had here on the East Coast, this year, Punxsutawney Phil could not have done his job right no matter what the little guy predicted. “This is the most philosophically perplexing Groundhog Day ever,” noted CNBC’s John Carney. This year, our furry meteorologist “saw his shadow,” meaning six more weeks of winter. But, what does that mean when the winter hasn’t happened? We can’t have six more weeks of something we haven’t had. Perhaps six more weeks of non-winter is ahead. “Six more weeks of winter would imply there has been one in the first place,” adds @globeandmail. Groundhog Day has become a paradox. Phil can’t have the right answer, making his job basically obsolete.”
Photo credit above: flickr/StephenZacharias
Could Climate Change Put The Groundhog Out Of Business? Scientific American has the story: “The United States’ smallest meteorologist must be scratching his head about now. Each February for the past 125 years, Punxsutawney Phil — the Pennsylvanian groundhog long considered a living symbol of Groundhog Day — has sauntered from his burrow to cast a shadow on the weeks and months ahead. His predictions, though not always accurate, are cheered by hundreds of fans who flock to his den at Gobbler’s Knob, a wooded hillock just outside the town that bears his name. The ground rules for Phil’s tradition have always been clear: If the groundhog sees his shadow, six weeks of winter are yet to come; if no shadow appears, then spring is on its way.”
Don’t Blame Global Warming For Midwest’s Mild Winter. MyFoxDetroit has the story: “SOUTHFIELD, Mich. (WJBK) – It’s been a mild winter across the Midwest to say the least. Temperatures in the 50s and the limited snow storms have had people emailing FOX 2 and asking, “why?” For answers, we turned to Tom Wagner, Cryosphere Program Manager with NASA, to give us an explanation.
Q: Here’s what people want to know. Is this global warming?
TW: Probably not. This is probably within the natural variability. If you look at the amount of snowfall we’ve had this year, it seems like it’s a lot less than there’s ever been. But in 2006, we actually had less at this point. That doesn’t mean that the planet’s not warming up. We’re certainly losing ice from all the polar regions and all the icy spots around the globe.”
“Hardiness Zones” Continue To Creep North. We’re not seeing the volume of arctic air and subzero lows we experienced a generation ago in Minnesota. According to USDA the southern suburbs of the Twin Cities are now in Zone 5a, meaning new plants and flowers (that grew in Iowa as recently as the 70s and 80s) can now be found in parts of the metro area. Click here to see the new USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map.
Why Climate Change Will Make You Like Big Government. I have a number of friends who don’t even want to consider the implications of a warmer, stormier climate. Why not? “It means bigger government, more regulations, more intrusions into the free enterprise system.” I get this a lot and I understand their concerns. Who wants to pay higher taxes? I sure don’t. But what happens when we have more multi-billion dollar disasters than the private sector can handle? Will private insurers be able to pick up the entire tab? I favor streamlined, efficient (ie. small) government as much as the next tax-payer, but Le Monde has an interesting take on the escalation in global weather disasters, and who will be stuck with the tab: “….Even many on the Left now regularly dismiss government as nothing but oversized, wasteful, bureaucratic, corrupt, and oppressive, without giving serious consideration to how essential it may be to our lives. But don’t expect the present “consensus” to last. Global warming and the freaky, increasingly extreme weather that will accompany it is going to change all that. After all, there is only one institution that actually has the capacity to deal with multibillion-dollar natural disasters on an increasingly routine basis. Private security firms won’t help your flooded or tornado-struck town. Private insurance companies are systematically withdrawing coverage from vulnerable coastal areas. Voluntary community groups, churches, anarchist affinity groups — each may prove helpful in limited ways, but for better or worse, only government has the capital and capacity to deal with the catastrophic implications of climate change.”
What If The CO2 Ceiling Debate Were Like The Debt Ceiling Debate? Think Progress notices some striking similarities in the talking points between the debt ceiling and a ceiling on carbon emissions: “The national debt isn’t the greatest short-term problem we face. That is spurring jobs and economic growth. And the debt certainly isn’t close to the greatest long-term problem we face. That would obviously be unrestricted emissions of greenhouse gases, which threaten human civilization with multiple simultaneous catastrophes — from endless superstorms to permanent DustBowls. And yes, we could solve the first by addressing the second — but we are getting ahead of ourselves. I can understand why the Tea-Party-driven GOP has made the national debt its focus. Conservatives are using the debt debate as a stalking horse for their disdain of government to gut as many federal programs as possible, from clean energy to Medicare to EPA oversight. Since those programs are popular, the best strategy is for the GOP to attack them under the guise of their concern over some other issue.”
What Amount Of Global Warming Is Human-Caused? The story from Nextgen Journal: “A growing body of research is showing that humans are likely causing more than 100% of global warming: without our influences on the climate, the planet would actually be cooling slightly. In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its fourth assessment report, internationally regarded as the most credible summary of climate science to date. It concluded that “most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” A clear question remains: How much is “most”? 51%? 75%? 99%? At the time that the IPCC report was written, the answer was unclear. However, a new frontier of climate research has emerged since, and scientists are working hard to quantify the answer to this question.”
Protecting What Was Once Endangered
Today is an important one for bird lovers. The Public Utilities Commission (PUC) is conducting a meeting on allowing a wind farm in Goodhue county that has the potential to kill bald and golden eagles who nest and migrate through the area near the Mississippi river. The wind project proposer, AWA Goodhue Wind, wants to build up to 50 turbines within a 12,000 acre footprint. Because of the threat to eagles, and also possibly to endangered bat species, the company is seeking a required federal “incidental take” permit in case the turbines do end up harming eagles.
At the same time, the Minnesota legislature is considering a bill to allow legal hunting of wolves during a prescribed season. Wolves in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan have just been taken off the federal endangered species list for state management. Our DNR’s initial hunting plan will allow 400 wolves to be taken, out of an estimated population of 3,000 in the state, or 13 % of the total.
I well remember in the early 1970′s when both animal species were endangered and became listed under the federal Endangered Species Act. It was a pleasure to see how protection and law brought these species back from possible extinction. The efforts have been one of the real success stories of the environmental and conservation movement.
So it becomes interesting that incidental taking permits for bald eagles and hunting permits for wolves are now becoming legal. Although wind power is an encouraging alternative energy source, the placement of turbines on the landscape should be carefully thought out to minimize any harm to a threatened eagle population. Similarly, the number of wolves allowed to be taken, and the time of year to conduct hunting them, should start off very conservatively in order to gauge success and study their roaming status.
After the success of restoring the population of these iconic species, we surely don’t want to go too far backwards in allowing the killing of them.
Fog, 40 (no sign of a real winter thru mid February)
32 F. high temperature in the Twin Cities on Wednesday. Lingering clouds and fog (the result of rapid snow melt) kept temperatures 8-10 degrees cooler than they would have been otherwise.
25 F. average high for February 1.
15 F. high temperature one year ago today, on February 1, 2011.
Trace of snow on the ground in the metro area.
11.9″ snow since December 1.
50.6″ snow fell during the same period last winter, between December 1 and February 1.
7.7 F. January temperatures in the Twin Cities were nearly 8 degrees above average. Source: NOAA.
3rd least January snowfall on record across the Lower 48 States of the USA (source: NOAA).
70 F. high in Washington D.C. Wednesday.
67 F. high in Philadelphia.
62 F. high reported at Hartford, Connecticut yesterday.
* reports of 5″ daffodils in full bloom in Lancaster, Pennsylvania.
Photo credit above: “Melanie Trost, a physician at the Duke University Student Health Center, enjoys the sunshine at the Sarah P. Duke Gardens on Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2012 in Durham, N.C. (AP Photo/The Herald-Sun, Christine T. Nguyen).”
6 More Weeks Of Winter? Any other year I’d look at a map, find Minnesota, calculate the distance to the Canadian border, and mumble yes, of course! But this year? Unusually mild weather is forecast to linger into (at least) mid February. That’s about as far out as we can look with any accuracy at all. La Nina and a persistent blocking pattern aloft will keep our winds blowing from the Pacific vs. the Yukon for the next few weeks. More cold fronts are unavoidable, but I still believe the worst of winter, a wimpy winter at that, is in our rear view mirror. My prediction: Punxatawney Phil will not see his shadow, meaning an early spring. No kidding. Here’s more from groundhog.org: “Groundhog Day 2012 will be here soon! Phil will leave his burrow at 7:20 February 2nd at Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania he will observe the weather conditions and look for his shadow he will then make his prediction for the remainder of winter.”
* why isn’t Groundhog Day a national holiday? Just saying…
“Hog-Cam”. If you’re bored beyond recognition, check out the WeatherBug webcam transmitting time lapse photos from lovely Punxatawney, Pennsylvania. Who knows – maybe you’ll get a peek at Bill Murray?
History Of Groundhog Day. I know (deep down) you’re curious about the origination of Groundhog Day, right? Right?? If you’re trying to look busy for the boss just keep your buried in your computer screen and read on, courtesy of the Pittsburgh office of the National Weather Service and the Punxetawney Groundhog Club: “Groundhog Day has its origins in an ancient celebration of a point mid-way between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox. Superstition has it that fair weather was seen as forbearance of a stormy and cold second half to winter. The early Christians in Europe established the custom of Candlemas Day, when the clergy would bless candles and people would light them in each window of their homes to ward off the darkness of mid-winter But the legend of the February 2nd forecast also persisted, as captured in this old English saying:
If Candlemas be fair and bright,Winter has another flight.
If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,
Winter will not come again.
The trail of groundhog history actually leads back to Clymer H. Freas, city editor of the Punxsutawney Spirit newspaper. In 1887, he was inspired by a group of local hunters and gourmets who held a groundhog hunt followed by a picnic barbecue of, well, you know. Anyway, Freas thought it so much fun that he wrote up the group as the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club and went on to promote the Punxsutawney Groundhog as the official weather forecaster. As he embellished the story year after year, other newspapers picked it up and soon everyone looked to Punxsutawney Phil for the critical prediction of when spring would return to the nation.”
Thin Ice Cancels Maple Lake Ice Fishing Tournament. AP and KARE-11 have the story: “MAPLE LAKE, Minn. – Thin ice has forced the cancellation of a popular Minnesota ice-fishing contest. The Maple Lake Ice Fishing Derby was supposed to be held this weekend. But organizers canceled this year’s event due to unsafe ice conditions. Spokesman Nick Olson says the annual event normally draws about 10,000 people.”
January 31 tweet from Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle: “All three City of Omaha 18 hole golf courses are open today due to unseasonably warm weather–Benson, Elmwood and Johnny Goodman! Fore!“
Madison: Too Warm For Winter Activities At City Parks. January 31, 2012 – Due to unusually warm temperatures, all of the Madison Parks outdoor ice rinks, ski trails, snowshoe trails and sledding hills are closed. Staff will attempt to re-open these facilities later this winter if/when conditions allow. When the weather turns more winter-like, be sure to check the status of the winter activities on the web – Parks Winter Activities: http://www.cityofmadison.com/parks/seasonal/winter/
Winter The Way It Was Meant To Be. Check out a great photo from Sugarloaf, Maine. Nice.
Meanwhile, Back In (Nearly Snow-less) Minnesota. Here’s the latest snowcover map from the Minnesota DNR. A new map comes out tomorrow, which should show even less snow, the result of recent melting and daytime temperatures consistently above freezing.
“Do what you can, with what you have, where you are.” – Teddy Roosevelt
Photo Of The Day. No caption necessary. Is Minnesota losing it’s Winter Mojo? Alaska is getting a real winter…no question about that. Remember when you were 20? I don’t either…
A Foot Of Snow For Iowa? The latest NAM model is very impressive (for snow) just to our south, printing out anywhere from 10-18″ of snow for northwestern and north central Iowa , 4-8″ for the Omaha area, closer to 3-6″ for Des Moines. We’ll see, but if your travel plans take you into Iowa or Nebraska tonight into Saturday you’ll want to prepare for heavy, wet, slushy snow.
Friday Evening Weather Map. The WRF model forecast valid at 7 pm Friday evening shows heavy wet snow from Denver into the Nebraska panhandle, the atmosphere warm enough for rain east of Omaha into southern Iowa and Missouri. So close, and yet so far.
Where’s The Cold Air? The extended GFS numbers look like a continuation of more of the same: dry and milder than average, with highs mostly in the 30s through February 17. Still no significant snow in sight for most of Minnesota.
Mid February Outlook: Seasonably Cool, But Not “Arctic”. The GFS predicted 500 mb (18,000 foot) winds for February 17 suggest the brunt of any bitter air later this month will be directed at New England, with just a glancing blow of cold for Minnesota – our pattern dominated by (what else): a family of meager clippers, too weak, moving too fast to tap any significant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
Stuck In A Mild, Dry Rut. Here is an excerpt of some climate headlines from climatologist Greg Spoden at Minnesota’s State Climate Office:
Japan Snowstorm Kills 52, Crushes Steel Bridge. ABC News has more details: “Heavy snowfall has crippled much of Japan’s western coast, killing more than 50 people and injuring nearly 600. The worst snowstorm in six years has dumped more than 10 feet of snow in the hardest-hit regions, causing at least one bridge to collapse and forcing school closures across the region. An avalanche today buried three people for more than an hour near a hot springs in Akita Prefecture in northwest Japan. The women were later found unconscious but survived.”
Temperatures Drop To Dangerous Lows In Russia. The story from The Weather Network and Reuters: “Severe frost hit many regions in Russia, from Siberia to the central part of the country, including the Yakutia, Altai, Khakassia, Irkutsk, Chelyabinsk, Tyva, Rostov and Belgorod regions, as well as the North Caucasus. Strong frost and temperatures as low as minus 45 degrees Celsius are forecast to last until the end of the weekend in the south Siberian Khakassia region, local authorities said. Bus companies cancelled several routes, causing pedestrians on the street to endure the harsh conditions on their way to work, school or back home. “I dress as (best) I can. Well, it’s true that I’m not wearing a hat like most students, but the cold is horrible,” a pedestrian told Russian television, which reported severe frost in many Russian regions.”
Big Freeze Grips Europe. The BBC’s Peter Gibbs explains why Europe and much of Asia is unusually cold.
Europe Freeze Kills 89, Fears Rise Over Russian Gas. Reuters has an update: “Record-low temperatures in parts of Eastern Europe pushed the death toll from Arctic conditions to at least 89 people on Wednesday, and have forced Russian gas provider Gazprom to warn over supplies to Europe. Europe had enjoyed a relatively mild winter up until last weekend, but a Siberian system swinging in from the east brought that to an abrupt halt. A source at Russian gas export monopoly, which supplies a quarter of Europe’s gas imports, said it was getting more requests from export markets than it could physically accommodate as demand from Russia spikes.“
Helicopters Used To Evacuate, Send Food In Europe Freeze. MSNBC.com reports: “BELGRADE, Serbia — Rescue helicopters evacuated dozens of people from snow-blocked villages in Serbia and Bosnia and airlifted in emergency food and medicine as a severe cold spell kept Eastern Europe in its icy grip. The death toll from the cold rose to 79 on Wednesday and emergency crews worked overtime as temperatures sank to minus 26.5 F in some areas. Europe had enjoyed a relatively mild winter up until last weekend, but an Arctic system swinging in from the east brought that to an abrupt halt.” Photo courtesy of Radul Radovanovic / AP.
Enormous Antarctic Crack Is A Real Ice-Breaker. Discovery News and NASA have the story: “Feb. 1, 2012 — NASA’s Terra Earth-observing satellite captured this image of Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica on Nov. 13, 2011, after a research team discovered a huge 19-mile (30-km) -long crack running across it. Members of the Operation IceBridge mission spotted the crack during a DC-8 flight over Pine Island Glacier (PIG) on Oct. 14, 2011. It’s estimated to be up to 260 feet (80 meters) wide and 195 feet (60 meters) deep. Eventually the crack will shear the glacier off completely, creating an ice island spanning 350 square miles (900 sq. km). The Pine Island Glacier is a major ice stream that drains 10 percent of the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although a warming climate and warmer seas have affected glaciers elsewhere in Antarctica, calving events like this have been happening steadily on PIG over the past few decades, at least. “
Talk of “Tornado Tourism” Stirs Up Anger In Joplin. The Missouri town is still trying to recover from last year’s massive, mile-wide EF-5 tornado that levelled much of the city. The Tennessean has the story: “JOPLIN, Mo. — Eight months after a tornado laid waste to much of this city, Joplin is wrestling with an emotional question: Should the community market its devastated neighborhoods to tourists? When the convention and visitors bureau recently discussed offering guided bus tours and even a smartphone app, storm victims bristled, imagining that their shattered homes could be put on display for legions of curious sightseers. But the bureau director says he wants to promote Joplin’s recovery to outsiders, insisting that the effort is “not about busted-up homes or destroyed cars or body parts.”
Hurricanes: The Times-Picayune Covers 175 Years Of New Orleans History. Here’s a remarkable story from a newspaper that has covered more than its fair share of devastating hurricanes, The New Orleans Times Picayune: “The New Orleans area has been ravaged repeatedly by hurricanes during its 200-year history, with the first major hurricane in 1722 destroying nearly every structure in the four-year-old village, including its only church, parsonage and hospital. While Hurricane Katrina in 2005 caused the most financial damage and killed 1,465 in Louisiana, the October 1893 hurricane that hammered Grand Isle and the fishing village of Cheniere Caminada killed as many as 2,000. Other notable hurricanes were: Hurricanes Gustav and Ike | September 2008: The storms came ashore only 10 days apart. Surge sloshed over Industrial Canal floodwalls during Gustav, and significant damage occurred in West Bank communities during Ike, which made landfall in Galveston, Texas.”
P&G To Lay Off 1,600 After Discovering Its Free To Advertise On Facebook. Yes, the ad model is changing, and that is going to bring some wrenching transitions for many in the traditional media world, including advertising and marketing. That’s hardly a bulletin. Business Insider has the story: “Reality appears to have finally arrived at Procter & Gamble, the world’s largest marketer, whose $10 billion annual ad budget has hurt the company’s margins. P&G said it would lay off 1,600 staffers, including marketers, as part of a cost-cutting exercise. More interestingly, CEO Robert McDonald finally seems to have woken up to the fact that he cannot keep increasing P&G’s ad budget forever, regardless of what happens to its sales. He told Wall Street analysts that he would have to “moderate” his ad budget because Facebook and Google can be “more efficient” than the traditional media that usually eats the lion’s share of P&G’s ad budget.”
Only About A Third Of Tweets Are Worth Reading (Study). No kidding. But I really do want to know what you had for breakfast. That said, I can no longer imagine life without Twitter – a compelling (and superior) way to get breaking news, if you choose who you follow very, very carefully. Mashable.com has more details: “Do you ever wonder how people react when they see your Twitter updates? Odds are, most would fall under the category of “meh,” according to a new study. Researchers at Carnegie Mellon, MIT and Georgia Tech joined forces to get a sense of how most tweets go over. They created a website called Who Gives a Tweet? that was sort of like a Hot or Not for tweets: Users were promised feedback on their tweets if they agreed to anonymously rate tweets for people they already follow. Over 19 days in December and January, 1,443 visitors to the site rated 43,738 tweets from 2,014 accounts. The verdict? Respondents liked 36% of the tweets, disliked 25% and ranked their reaction to the remaining 39% as neutral.”
iPad 3 Specs: Quad-Core, WIFI and Global LTE Options. BGR Media has more details on what may be coming from Apple. Fan-boys discuss. “A source claiming to be in possession of an iPad 3 prototype provided BGR with images containing details about Apple’s highly anticipated third-generation tablet. From the data in the photos, which contain the output from an iPad 3 using a development and debug tool called iBoot, we can infer plenty of information about the upcoming iPad 3. For starters, the model numbers are J1 and J2 (iPad3,1 and iPad3,2), and while DigiTimes reported this a few weeks ago, these two models are not different devices, just a single iPad available in two versions — one with Wi-Fi only and one with Wi-Fi and embedded GSM/CDMA/LTE for all carriers.”
New “Everpix” App Automatically Uploads iPhone Photos To The Cloud. Here’s a good way to back up your iPhone pics. Techcrunch.com has more details: “Photo organization service (and TechCrunch Disrupt finalist) Everpix just launched its first iPhone application. The app does two key things: it offers you a way to access your entire photo collection from your phone, plus it automatically uploads all your iPhone photos to the Everpix cloud. The app is a crucial part of the overall Everpix experience, which, for those of you unfamiliar, works primarily as a Mac application at present (Windows coming) to automatically organize and combine all your photos, whether they’re stored on your computer or in the cloud. The service supports photo uploads from iPhoto, Aperture and Lightroom, plus photos from your online collections on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Flickr and Picasa.”
30 Years Of David Letterman. The video compilation courtesy of gawker.com: “(Last night) David Letterman celebrated 30 years on the air. It’s been quite a ride for old Dave, through different timeslots and networks, from the peak of zeitgeist to something else entirely. He’s hosted starlets and politicians, often treating them with a dash of anger and more than a bit of sarcasm. Here are some of the most memorable moments from his time on television.”
Photo courtesy of yfrog and topsy.com.
Courtesy of bizarrocomics.com.
“A good character is the best tombstone. Those who loved you and were helped by you will remember you when forget-me-nots have withered. Carve your name on hearts, not on marble.” – Charles H. Spurgeon
Temperature “Bust”. Yes, Wednesday’s (temperature) forecast was a bust, off by nearly 10 degrees. Recent snowmelt coupled with light winds and partly cloudy skies allowed the relative humidity to rise to 100%, complete saturation. Clouds formed on the ground (fog) and winds were too light, the sun angle too low in the southern sky for that fog to dissipate and burn off. The result, high temperatures much cooler than forecast, ranging from 32 at Eau Claire and the Twin Cities to 33 at St. Cloud, a balmy 47 at Redwood Falls, where the fog and clouds gave way to some sunshine.
Paul’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
TODAY: Patchy fog and drizzle early (few slick spots?) Becoming partly sunny and milder. Winds: W 5-8. High: 41
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, more ground fog may form late. Low: 29 FRIDAY: Intervals of sun, still feels like March. High: 43
SATURDAY: Close call. Heavy rain/snow over Iowa. Mostly cloudy southern Minnesota, partly sunny up north. Low: 27. High: 39
SUNDAY: Lingering clouds, a little drizzle possible. Low: 26. High: 36
MONDAY: Partly sunny, good & boring. Low: 24. High: 39
TUESDAY: Slow clearing, turning cooler. Low: 22. High: 29
WEDNESDAY: More sun, less wind – seasonably chilly. Low: 18. High: 27
Groundhog Day! The anticipation is killing me. Will the groundhog see his shadow, ensuring 6 more weeks of winter? Then again, Punxatawney Phil’s long-term accuracy is 39% (something I aspire to), so take his ruminations with a grain of salt. Any other winter I’d shrug, find my home on a map, calculate the distance to the Arctic Circle and mumble “OF COURSE we’ll see 6 more weeks of winter.” This winter is an entirely different proposition, though. The drought that started in autumn is strengthening, spreading north from Texas. La Nina has hijacked the jet stream, complex blocking patterns sweeping mild air inland from the Pacific with a predictability and persistence that’s nothing short of astonishing. So all bets are off. I still don’t see any arctic flings looking out through mid February. Our remarkable thaw lingers into at least Monday. A brief midweek chill gives way to more 30s (and 40s) the second week of February. Snow? Are you kidding me? It doesn’t snow (hard) here anymore. Not this winter. A big sloppy southern storm brushes Iowa with a few inches of slush Saturday; detouring south of Minnesota. Again. Snow lovers with an itch that a scratch won’t reach ask me “when will it snow?” Think April.
“Be loyal to what you love, be true to the earth, fight your enemies with passion and laughter.” – Edward Abbey
Climate Stories….
What’s it going to take to spur this nation to act on the opportunities that a green economy presents? “First, I think it’s important to note that we already have a thriving green economy. More people actually work in the green economy than the fossil fuel sector. The question, though, is, how do you scale it enough that people go back to work? The first step is green incentives. We have to stop providing incentives to fuels that pollute and provide incentives to the industries we want to grow. The United States has to pick winners and losers, and we want to pick winners that put people back to work and sustain the planet.” – Green For All’s CEO Phaedra Ellis-Lamkins. read the full story at The University of Minnesota’s Momentum Magazine.
Does Warmer Weather Mean A New Plant Zone For You? Meteorologist David Epstein at Boston.com poses the question – little question there’s been a northward shift of flora and fauna in the last 30 years. I tell people the truth: don’t look at your thermometer for evidence of climate change (that’s “weather”, not climate). Look at what new flowers, trees, plants, birds and other animals show up in your yard that weren’t there in the 60s and 70s. “Last week the USDA put out a new plant zone map for the country. They divide the contiguous United States into 11 zones that help gardeners choose what to grow in their area. The map is now more precise and reflects microclimates, heat islands, prevailing wind, elevation and generally better data. According to the USDA the map should not be used to make conclusions about climate change. The new zones are based on temperatures for the period 1976-2005, updating the 1990 version of the map, which used temperatures from 1974-1986. So what does this mean to you? Can you plant orange and palm trees in your yard? The answer is of course no, but, based on the new map you can probably try some new varieties of plants that you might have been reluctant to try in the past.“
Climate Change In 26 Seconds. In a hurry? Witness the worldwide warming trend since 1880 in a mere 26 seconds. Video clip courtesy of care2.com and those left-wing, tree-hugging, Al-Gore-loving scientists over at NASA. Right.
Texas Drought: Landscaping Reconsidered Among Homeowners. Huffington Post has the story: “LUBBOCK, Texas — Texans watched disaster unfold slowly last year as a historic drought took a withering toll across the region. Trees died by the millions, lawns and landscaping wilted, lakes shrank and wildlife struggled. Water bills shot up. All of this, experts say, could be just the nudge homeowners across the Southwest need to do things differently in their yards. The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department is featuring a “Drought Survival Kit” on its website that offers residents, who are facing a forecast of more dry weather, tips on how to landscape while reining in water consumption.”
Cartoon courtesy of New Jersey’s Star Ledger.
Texas Tech Scientist Sees Intimidation Effort Behind Barrage Of Hate Mail. Texas Climate News has the story: “Hate mail in the inbox has been an occupational hazard for climate scientists in the public eye for some time now. Something about their endorsement and explanation of the mainstream scientific view that humans are heating up the earth’s atmosphere elicits that sort of response from certain people who disagree very strongly. Lately, it has been Texas Tech University professor Katharine Hayhoe’s turn to be on the receiving end of an avalanche of venomous emails. It happened after conservative commentator Rush Limbaugh ridiculed her as a “climate babe” and Republican presidential contender Newt Gingrich, apparently reacting to Limbaugh’s attack, revealed that he was dropping a chapter written by Hayhoe from his forthcoming book on environmental issues.”
Climate Scientists Not Cowed By Relentless Climate Change Deniers. Physics Today has the story: “Receiving an email with a statement like “You should resign, and if you don’t, I’ll work to see that you are fired” or “I know where your kids go to school” would be unsettling enough. But they “pale compared to what other climate scientists are getting,” says Raymond Orbach, director of the Energy Institute at the University of Texas at Austin, at whom the first threat above was aimed. Now climate scientists—in atmospheric physics and chemistry, geophysics, meteorology, hydrology, and oceanography, among other disciplines—have begun to fight back. “I think the community is finding a voice,” says Ben Santer of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, whose work has largely focused on identifying the human influence on global climate, and who once answered a late-night knock to find a dead rat on his doorstep. Climate scientists overwhelmingly agree that climate change is happening, although details of how it will play out are uncertain. Every few years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issues a report prepared by hundreds of scientists and government officials from around the world; the next is due out in 2014.”
Climate Change Drying Out Forests In Western Canada. CTV News has the story: “Research shows northern forests in the three prairie provinces are drying up and shrinking from drought caused by climate change, while the eastern boreal forest is holding its own. A paper published Monday suggests the forests of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba are already emitting more greenhouse gases than they absorb. The finding could overturn assumptions that global warming would improve growing conditions for trees in the North. “We found the boreal east and the boreal west is a totally different story,” said University of Montreal biologist Changhui Peng, lead author of the paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.”
Photo credit above: “Research shows northern forests in the three prairie provinces are drying up and shrinking from drought caused by climate change, while the eastern boreal forest is holding its own. (File, THE CANADIAN PRESS)“
January 31: Get Hooked on the Line!
Molly Pederson, Government Affairs Director
You’re back, and so is the Line! Just in case you didn’t catch us last year, the Line is a light, 100% Minnesotan look at all things environment at the Capitol as seen by me, a lobbyist who doesn’t actually spend that much time outside. Last year, the Line gave out its fair share of “You Betcha’s!” to our heroes and “Uff da’s!” to the people and things we think, well, missed the mark. As always, I’ll include a list of bills “Caught at the Capitol” each week and give you the scoop on how they impact our water, land and air. Keepers…reel ‘em in! Otherwise, toss ‘em back!
Today marks the Line’s 2012 debut, so consider it a work in progress….look forward to more graphics, fresh nuggets of information, and even our favorite video clips of you and your colleagues in committee and on the floor. We’ve created this with you in mind, so send me your feedback and suggestions, and even the name and heroic deed of a colleague who deserves a “You Betcha!”
Finally, please don’t confuse the Line with the always enjoyable musings of the other, taller half of Conservation Minnesota’s government affairs team, John Tuma. You can (and should!) check out his blog here.
Caught at the Capitol this weekOn Tuesday, both the House and Senate Environment Committees are hearing HF 1923 (O’Driscoll) and SF 1560 (Pederson) which eliminates the water conservation rate structure. The rate structure is a common sense way for cities to curb peak demand. Since studies show that our groundwater isn’t recharging as fast as it’s being used, we need to keep the rate structure to encourage conservation and avoid future water supply problems.
CM’s position on the repeal: Toss it back!
Also on Tuesday, the Senate Environment Committee is taking up SF 1567 (Ingebrigtsen) which looks like more rollbacks to environmental review and permitting. We’re most concerned about the expanded role of consultants paid by applicants and the diminished authority given to unbiased agency staff in approving environmental permits.
CM’s position: Toss it back!
Coming Up Next Week: Things that make you go “hmmmm….”
Questions about anything in the Line? Send me a message here.
Get The Line each Monday morning in your inbox. Click here and we’ll hook you up.
February Thaw (more like mid March the next 10-14 days)
45 F. high in the Twin Cities Tuesday (we missed an all-time record by one degree).
25 F. average high for January 31 in the Twin Cities.
21 F. high temperature a year ago, on January 31, 2011.
4.6″ snow in January, 2012
12.1″ average snowfall for January (snowiest month of the year, on average).
17″ fell on the metro area during January, 2011.
14.9″ snow has fallen this winter season at KMSP.
60.4″ snow had fallen as of January 31, 2011.
66 F. high at Washington Dulles Airport on Tuesday, a new record for January 31.
55 F. high at Islip, New York, a new record.
63 F. record high reported at Georgetown, Delaware
32.5″ of lake-effect snow at Fulton, New York (10 miles from the Lake Ontario shoreline) since Monday.
-65 F. reported at Galena, Alaska, in the state’s bitter interior, last Saturday morning. The old record was -56 in 1947.
Meteorological Denial. It’s (almost) time to write off this winter. True, we can get dumped on in late February and March, but late winter snowfalls tend to only stick around a few days – the sun is too high in the sky for snow to linger on the ground for long. Thanks to twitpic, and my buddy Mike Seidel at The Weather Channel, for forwarding this one along. How true.
Rain At International Falls on January 31? The odds of rain that far north on the last day of January are slim to nil. And that rain froze (on contact) with cold surfaces, producing a thin glaze of ice. More reports from NOAA here.
One Week’s Worth Of Weather Records. Thanks to Ham Weather and NOAA for reminding us how unusual the warmth has been across the USA. Green dots display record 24 hour rainfall amounts, red dots are record highs, yellow dots record (warm) nighttime lows. An interactive map is here, courtesy of those rocket scientist/weather geeks over at Ham Weather.
Winter On Hold. Unseasonable, almost April-like warmth blanketed most of America yesterday. Here’s more from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Laboratory: “On the last day of January, many people throughout the U.S. are enjoying unusually warm temperatures. Shown in this image, using data from today’s NOAA Rapid Update Cycle model, are the high temperatures across the U.S. Many areas are experiencing temperatures well above 50 or 60 degrees Fahrenheit, even in far northern locales. “
In Search Of Snow. According to NOAA’s National Snow Analysis, only 23.3% of the Lower 48 States have snow on the ground. A few interesting stats:
2012: 23.3%
2011: 41.6%
2010: 70%
2006: 21.6%
* 2006 is the only year I could find in the last 30 years that had less snow on the ground than we’re seeing in 2012.
One Big Silver Lining: A Vastly Reduced Risk of Spring Flooding. Who knows what will happen between now and March (although I suspect it’s best to go with “persistence”, which is meteorological slang for go with the flow, acknowledge the trends). The drought that plagued Texas last year (worst in state history, including the Dust Bowl years of the mid 1930s) is expanding north, through a combination of La Nina, persistent blocking patterns, and other factors we may not even be aware of. Unless we see a series of massive snowstorms in late February and March the risk of severe flooding across the Upper Midwest will be considerably lower than recent years. According to NOAA’s “Snow Water Equivalent” map above there’s only .04 to 1″ of liquid water trapped in the (meager) snow pack from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, about 2-4″ water over northern Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan, where lake effect has cheered snow lovers.
It’s Been A Warm Winter, But Warmest? I think it would be safe to say that we are experiencing the warmest winter since 2006, probably a Top 5 or Top 10 warmest winter for the lower 48 states. MSNBC.com has an article focusing on just how unusual this almost unprecedented spring fling really is: “How soon we forget. Sure, this last month has been warmer than average across the lower 48 states, but the record for warmest January was set just six years ago in January 2006 and it’s too soon to tell if that will fall. Deke Arndt, chief of the National Climatic Data Center’s monitoring service, told msnbc.com that he can’t rule out a record. “It’s too early for us to call shots” on just where January 2012 will end up, he said, “but it has been quite warm so far and we expect it to finish in the top 15 or 20,” based on records dating back to 1895. The official report for January comes out on Feb. 7, he added.”
Photo credit above: “Doug Csongei chips to the first green at Big Met golf course in Fairview Park, Ohio Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2012. Ohio is in the thick of an unusual winter that has brought the state warm temperatures and little snow, with the long-range forecast calling for more winter warmth. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan).”
Warm Winter Adds To Retailers Post-Holiday Blues. Reuters has the details: “Unseasonably warm weather across the United States forced many retailers to offer deeper-than-usual discounts to clear out coats, sweaters and boots in January, pointing to tepid sales in the typically slow post-holiday month. Analysts expect U.S. retailers to report a 2 percent rise in January same-store sales, compared with a year-earlier increase of 4.4 percent, according to Thomson Reuters data. “In this economy, nobody is going to buy unless there is a need for it, and the weather says, ‘You don’t need it,’” said Scott Bernhardt, chief operating officer of Planalytics, which provides weather data for businesses.“
Photo credit above: “Runners in warm weather gear pass by a sign, marketing warm winter accessories, located outside The Museum Store in the 200 block of William Street in downtown Fredericksburg, Va. on Friday afternoon, Jan. 27, 2012. The store is part of the Area Museum and Cultural Center. (AP Photo/The Free Lance-Star, Robert A. Martin).”
One Place Where Winter Is Alive And Well. The town of Fulton, New York, just 10 miles from the Lake Ontario shoreline, has seen plenty of (lake effect) snow in recent weeks. That’s what you have to do to insure snow these days – situation yourself 10-30 miles downwind of one of the Great Lakes. “Chris Wolford digs out the driveway of her South 7th Street home, Monday, Jan. 30, 2012, in Fulton, N.Y. Over 30 inches of snow fell in Fulton during the area’s first lake-effect storm of the season. (AP Photo/The Post-Standard, Michelle Gable).”
Ski Nebraska. The latest GFS model is printing out some 6-8″ snowfall amounts for western Kansas and central Nebraska later this week as a slow-moving storm pushes north across the Plains, weakening before passing south of Minnesota. The Great Snow Drought of 2012 limps on.
Trending Well Above Average. Although the GFS is hinting at a significant (but brief) cool-down in mid February, the models are all highly erratic. As you can see, temperatures are forecast to trend well above average levels (in dashes) through February 14 or so. Graph courtesy of Ham Weather. Plug in your local zip code to get a personalized extended outlook for home.
One More Subzero Night? My faith in the GFS model has dwindled considerably; I’ve seen some wild swings in recent runs, so my confidence level is low. The latest run shows a fleeting cold snap around February 12, with one night below zero. That may change again later today, but there’s little doubt we’ll see a few more beefy cold fronts in the weeks to come.
Don’t Write Winter Off Just Yet. Although temperatures will probably trend well above average through mid February, there will be cold fronts. The 500 mb outlook above (GFS) is valid February 16. Disclaimer: jet stream winds are blowing much faster than usual, even for this of year, when wind speeds peak. That makes the pattern unstable, and a long range forecast much more difficult. Models have been highly erratic, but (if) this forecast verifies we could expect another spell of single digits and teens for highs, and subzero nights around Feb. 17-18. We’ll see.
Another Close Call. This is a 5-day precipitation forecast from NOAA. For the last few months Minnesota, the Dakotas and much of Wisconsin have been in something of a meteorological no-man’s land. Big sloppy storms detouring south, a family of clippers sailing off to our north, with very little snow (or rain) close to home. The QPF (quantitative precipitation forecast) prints out some very heavy amounts of rain and snow for the central Plains, but the weekend storm should pass just south of Minnesota….again.
70 tornadoes across the USA in January – 3rd highest tornado count since accurate tornado records were first kept in 1950. Source: SPC. More details from USA Today below.
January Tornadoes Across America:
212: 1999
84: 2008
70: 2012
Photo credit above: “The roof is missing over this classroom at Center Point Elementary School in Center Point, Ala., Tuesday, Jan. 24, 2012. A series of tornadoes struck Alabama Monday (Jan. 23), killing two people and destroying over 400 homes. (AP Photo/Dave Martin).”
37 years. Global January – December temperatures have been above the long-term (1951-1980) average since 1974, according to NASA.
215 months. The last time a specific month was colder than the 1951-1980 average was February, 1994. (NASA).
“Climate change “skeptics”. Every scientist I know is a “skeptic”. It’s the way science works. You observe, question, seek answers, test, form ideas, sure argue about results of experiments and conclusions and sometimes your ideas or results are shown to be incorrect. So what? We should all be skeptics. We should all seek more information and knowledge and not be drawn, or seek out only to those who agree with our ideas, be they science, political, whatever. Let’s drop the lightning rod labels above being thrown from opposite sides of the river of knowledge and understanding.” – from a timely post from WJLA-TV’s Bob Ryan about the controversial “Forecast The Facts” campaign to expose climate skeptics among the nation’s TV meteorologists. Details below.
“June-uary” In Chicago. 60s on the last day of January in the Windy City? One year ago Chicago was bracing for a blizzard, one that dropped 1-2 feet of snow, paralyzing the city with 4-5 foot drifts and impassable streets. That old adage, what a difference a year makes, rings true. Map courtesy of the Chicago office of the National Weather Service.
Groundhog Day 2011. On February 1-2, 2011, Chicago was hit by a massive winter storm, one that shut down the city. Photo of Lakeshore Drive courtesy of Mike Tannura.
Experts Offer Drivers Advice On Winter Travel. Pittsburghlive.com’s “TribLive News” has some timely advice. One of these days we may even be able to put these suggestions to good use: “You need to make sure your headlights and taillights aren’t covered because they obviously wouldn’t be as vibrant not only for you to see, but for other drivers to see you,” she said. “You also have to make sure your hood and roof are clear so no chunks of snow or ice can fall off.” If you don’t, it isn’t just dangerous — it’s illegal. In Pennsylvania, you can be ticketed if any material falls from your vehicle and strikes another. Once you’re on the road — with your seat belt on, of course — Stanley said the key is to remain calm and steady. “When you’re driving (on ice or snow-covered roads), you want to avoid making any quick movements,” he said. “You don’t want to hit the brake hard, punch the gas or turn the steering wheel too quickly. Those are easy ways to lose control. You also need to put more space between you and the car in front of you. If you’re following too closely and need to stop suddenly, it’s obviously going to be much more difficult to do on ice.”
Severe (Winter) Weather Preparedness. Lawn and Landscape has a good checklist to keep in mind when the next major winter snow/ice storm approaches. And it will. Right? “The equipment checklist can help assess preparedness for an unexpected weather event or other emergency – and offers some safety tips:
- Pole saws or pruners can help clear away dead or damaged limbs near your home or building or on your driveway. Make sure you always keep a firm footing on the ground when using such equipment. Do not use a ladder, and stay away from electrical conductors.
- A chain saw can help clear away trees and more massive limbs, but first read and understand the instruction manual and ensure equipment is in good condition. Do not work around power lines, since they can be the biggest threat to safety.
- Power generators can keep the lights on, refrigerators running and water flowing in an emergency. Do not operate power generators, however, in enclosed areas. Carbon monoxide is a colorless, odorless gas that can become concentrated in enclosed areas and cause serious injury or death.”
2012 Off To A Furious Start In Tornadoes. USA Today has the latest statistics: “January has been an unusually violent month for tornadoes in the USA: 70 twisters have been reported. And more could be on the way. The total this month is the third-highest in January since accurate tornado records began in 1950, said Greg Carbin, warning coordination meteorologist with the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. Since 1950, only January 1999 (with 212) and January 2008 (with 84) saw more tornadoes. The twisters killed two people this month, both in Alabama. The last time there were tornado-related deaths in January was in 2008, when seven people died, Carbin said. The deadliest January on record was in 1969, when 32 people were killed by tornadoes.” Photo courtesy of Hal Yeager, AP.
Alabama Was Most Tornado-Prone State In 2011. My Fox New York has the story: “MONTGOMERY, Ala. – In 2011, 177 tornadoes struck Alabama, making it the state with the highest number of twisters in a year that the South was hit particularly hard by violent storms, according to the National Weather Service. Mississippi was right behind Alabama in second place with 169 tornadoes and North Carolina was fourth with 113. Although tornado season has not quite started yet for most of the country, Alabama is already ranked in the top spot for 2012, with 22 tornado strikes since New Year’s Day.”
Tornado Myths Tough For Forecasters To Bust. Yahoo News has an interesting article: “NEW ORLEANS — Even after a tornado warning was issued for Cordova, Ala., during last April’s deadly event, one man — we’ll call him Bill — still wasn’t concerned. The tornado was miles away and Walker County, where Cordova is located, is a big county. Besides, he lives on a hill and everyone knows that tornadoes can’t come up a hill. And his motorcycle in the driveway really needed fixing. Then a twister rating EF-3 on the tornado-damage scale roared through town, narrowly missing Bill’s house. “It was out of character for everything that I’ve ever known about tornadoes,” Bill told researchers in an interview after the storm. His real name was not used to protect his anonymity.” Photo above courtesy of the AP.
Designing A Better System To Warn About Hurricanes. The Herald Tribune has more details: “NEW ORLEANS – Hurricane forecasting is changing — and not just on the meteorology side. The National Hurricane Center is working on new ways to tell people how they are at risk when hurricanes threaten. As part of the federal Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, psychologists are trying to figure out how to issue storm warnings that the public and emergency managers can use to make fast decisions about whether to evacuate or stay put. After years of effort by hurricane officials to teach people about storm surge, many still do not understand. They also misinterpret other forecast products, such as the “cone of uncertainty,” which shows where a hurricane is likely to travel.”
Drought May Cause Shut-Down Of Texas Rice Production. Climate Central has an update: “Although recent rains have put a dent in the Texas drought, a day of reckoning looms for the state’s long-grain rice growers, who pump millions into the economy in Southeast Texas each year and account for about 5 percent of America’s rice production. Come March 1, if there is less than 850,000 acre-feet of water in reservoirs along the Lower Colorado River, water managers will be forced to take the unprecedented step of withholding water from agricultural users, which will mean severe cuts to Texas rice production this year.”
NOAA Satellites Aid In The Rescue Of 207 People In 2011. NOAA has the story: “In 2011, NOAA satellites were critical in the rescues of 207 people from life-threatening situations throughout the United States and its surrounding waters. The satellites picked up distress signals from emergency beacons carried by downed pilots, shipwrecked boaters and stranded hikers, and relayed the information about their location to first responders on the ground. NOAA’s polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites are part of the international Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking System, called COSPAS-SARSAT. This system uses a network of satellites to quickly detect and locate distress signals from emergency beacons onboard aircraft and boats, and from smaller, handheld personal locator beacons called PLBs.” Image above courtesy of NOAA.
NASA Enhances Solar Storm Forecasting. Informationweek.com has the story: “The use of the computational predictive technique couldn’t come as a better time, as the sun is entering its solar maximum, or period of greatest activity, which will spur an increase in space weather, according to the agency. NASA is applying existing technology called “ensemble forecasting” that’s been used to predict hurricanes in its observations of solar weather to better predict the path and effect of solar storms. Researchers at the Space Weather Laboratory of Goddard Space Flight Research Center have begun to implement ensemble forecasting–which allows them to produce as many as 100 computerized forecasts at once–with full implementation in three years’ time, according to NASA.” Photo above courtesy of NASA.
Tracking Storms On The Sun. Click here to see the latest data on our nearest and dearest star, the sun. Or should I say The Sun. Data courtesy of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.
Is Meteorology Turning Into Computer Science? Here’s an intriguing blog from meteorologist AJ Jain’s blog, “Fresh AJ“. From personal experience I can tell you that we’re always on the lookout for meteorologists who can either a). present the weather professionally on-camera, or b). use computer skills to help us develop new software for visualization, the energy markets, and creating more accurate, hyper-local forecasts: “After attending the student conference at the AMS career fair, I spoke to each private employer that was hiring meteorologists. Some of the employers I spoke to at the booths were, “Unisys, Climate Corporation, Wunderground, Accuweather, Impact weather, among others. And here’s what was very intriguing: a majority of these employers are looking for meteorology developers (ie people who are excellent at programming but also understand meteorology). Meteorology programmers are a growing trend in today’s meteorology job world. Whether it is programming using Python, C++, Objective C, or PHP, the “new” graduate in meteorology in today’s economic climate should probably have these skills under their belt. When I spoke to a few of them…they mentioned if someone is a MS or PHD with programming skills, they would like to talk with them. Some of them even mentioned they were prepared to throw ridiculous amounts of cash if you met those qualifications…so if you’re interested in learning more, let me know!“
January Recap. What a month: a meager 4.6″ of snow, 16 days at or above freezing, 8 days at or above 40 and 1 day above 50. Click here for a closer look, courtesy of the Minnesota State Climate Office.
Looking Ahead To February. This month the average high rises from 25 on the 1st to a whopping 34 by the 28th. Average snowfall is 8.2″ (less because of fewer days in the month). The Minnesota State Climate Office has the climate calendar for February here.
Open Your Eyes Paul. That was me, back in 1979, when I was a senior at Penn State. Pretty natural in front of the camera, huh? My wife has aged far more gracefully than I have. Getting old sucks.
Shades Of Late March. The high in the Twin Cities yesterday was 45. That’s the average high for March 24. What happened to “average”. A coating of snow (and ice) fell on International Falls from another meager clipper. Statewide highs ranged from 28 at INL to 41 St. Cloud, 44 Rochester, 45 in the Twin Cities and 46 at Redwood Falls.
Paul’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
TODAY: Patchy clouds, more like mid March. Few flurries central MN? Winds: SW 7-12. High: 42
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy, still milder than average. Low: 27 THURSDAY: Partly sunny, still unseasonably mild. High: 41
FRIDAY: Fading sun, still dry (and Marchlike). Low: 27. High: 42
SATURDAY: Some sun, storms stays south. Low: 25. High: 38
SUNDAY: More sun, amazingly quiet. Low: 22. High: 36
MONDAY: Winter daydream continues. Plenty of mild sun. Low: 25. High: 39
TUESDAY: Turning windy and noticeably colder, few passing flurries. Low: 22. High: 27
Pinch Me I just woke up from the most amazing daydream. It was late January, yet the grill was sizzling away, my boys tossing the football in the back yard, neighbors stopping by to ask “Hey Paul, is it MILD enough ‘fer ‘ya?” Dickens had it right: this winter has been the best of times – and the worst of times. It’s been a Godsend for seniors, who don’t have to worry quite as much about slipping on ice. We’ve saved almost 20% on heating bills since Autumn. Fewer fender benders, more money for cities to pave potholes vs. clearing snow. But for anyone making a living from snow and cold our alleged “winter” has been an unmitigated disaster. Sales of winter essentials (and toys) are down 30-50% Meanwhile baffled meteorologists scan the maps, wondering if when this record-setting Pacific breeze will finally shut off. The answer: no time soon. The European ECMWF model brings puffs of chilly air south of the border, but I don’t see anything subzero. For the record we’ve had 3 subzero nights so far this winter in the Twin Cities. A typical winter brings 28 nights of negative numbers. Nebraska picks up a foot of snow; but a weekend storm spins south of Minnesota. Again. Trending considerably milder than average through mid February with more 30s, even a few 40s? Yep. The Year Without A (real) Winter? It sure looks that way. Watch – we’ll get dumped on in late April. Yes, that would be fitting.
Weather, Climate, And “Facts”. Here’s an excerpt of a timely post from a meteorologist I have a tremendous amount of respect for, Bob Ryan at WJLA-TV in Washington D.C. “First the FACTS about what happened at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last week. Full disclosure I have been a Member (and elected Fellow) and active participant of the AMS in many boards, commissioner and past president since my student member days of about 45 years ago. The AMS is the largest scientific and professional society of its type in the world. The governing body of the AMS is the Council of the Society, most of whose members and AMS president are elected by the 14,000 individuals members of the Society. An open, democratic process. The various statements of the Society cover areas of science NOT politics and policy varying from science education to mobile homes to water resources, weather forecasts and yes climate change. The FACT is that every scientific based statement of the AMS is reviewed at a minimum every 5 years.…Since about the 1700s burning of fossil fuels has released about ½ trillion tons of carbon into the atmosphere . . . 500, 000, 0000 tons and the concentration of CO2 has increased today by almost 40% from 300 years ago. Solid science and solid observations or a “hoax”?“
Chicago’s Warm Winter Weather And Global Warming. The story from Whet Moser over at Chicagomag.com. Here’s an excerpt: “The last time I wrote about Chicago’s warm winter (and what it might have to do with SPACE WEATHER), someone asked me on Facebook whether it had anything to do with global warming. The best I could do was basically “that’s not exactly how to think about it”:
So I was kind of pleased with myself to see one of my favorite weather bloggers, Dr. Jeff Masters, use a nearly identical metaphor the other day: The natural weather rhythms I’ve grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth’s major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 – 2011.”
Perception = Reality. From a post at Think Progress: “In line with projections by climate scientists, the 2000s were significantly hotter than the 1990s, which were hotter than the 1980s, reflecting the steady rise in carbon dioxide emissions. This consistent increase in average temperature is partially masked by natural variability on short time spans. Johnson’s nonsensical claim rests on that deliberate misinterpretation of temperature data, as this infographic from Skeptical Science (above) shows.”
Think We’re Headed For A New Ice Age? You’re Wrong. The story from gizmodo.com: “Read some reports of our changing climate today, and you might be convinced that we’re about to enter a mini Ice Age, with decades of plummeting temperatures ahead. Here’s why that’s a lot of hot air. Today, the Daily Mail report that we are “heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames [in London, UK] in the 17th Century.” They cite a report by the Meteorological Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit about solar cycles. Currently, we should be at a maximum in the solar cycle—Cycle 24, in fact—experiencing the most heat the sun can thrown at us. For some reason, we’re not: the sun has been a little erratic in the past few years.” Photo above courtesy of Wikipedia.
NASA: Global Warming Caused Mostly By Humans. Here’s an excerpt from a story at USA Today: “….This provides unequivocal evidence that the sun is not the dominant driver of global warming,” said James Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who led the research released Monday. On the Wall Street Journal’s opinion page, 16 scientists recently said there’s no need for drastic action to “decarbonize” the world’s economy. “Perhaps the most inconvenient fact is the lack of global warming for well over 10 years now,” they wrote without providing data. Not so, according to U.S. government records. In December, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that all 11 years of the 21st century so far (2001–2011) rank among the 13 warmest in the 132-year period of record.”
What Caused The Texas Drought – Global Warming or La Nina? Yahoo News asks the experts: “The drought that still afflicts Texas has given rise to another controversy over the theory of global warming. Two eminent scientists have looked at the same data and have come to sharply different conclusions.
NASA‘s James Hanson says it’s global warming According to Inside Climate News, NASA’s James Hanson has announced the recent heat wave in Texas that featured months with little or known rainfall was the result of global warming. Hanson and a group of NASA scientists claim the heat wave and the drought could not have occurred without the phenomenon of global warming. Hanson claims he has based his conclusion of 50 years of climate data. Hanson has been an advocate of ending the use of fossil fuels. He has often combined science with activism and has thus generated controversy. NOAA’s Robert Hoerling says it’s not global warming The Dallas Observer interviewed NOAA climate scientist Robert Hoerling. Hoerling pinned the blame on La Nina, an atmospheric phenomenon that causes the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean to cool. This results in lower than expected precipitation in the southwest, especially Texas. La Nina caused an almost decade-long drought in the 1950s that was just as severe as the one that took place in the summer of 2011. Whether Texas is in for a similar long dry period is uncertain. But Hoerling is adamant that it is not global warming.”Photo credit above: “In this Jan. 19, 2012 photo, the banks of Tiki Island in the middle of Medina Lake, Texas, are exposed due to receding water levels there. The lake is 52 feet down. It has not been this low in more than two decades, and the lake is expected to continue to lose a few inches every day as the 15-month drought continues. (AP Photo/ San Antonio Express-News, John Davenport).”
Oil Companies Are Actually Planning For Climate Change. Hedging their bets, in case the professional climate skeptics are wrong? Triple Pundit has the story: “Not so long ago oil companies “bank rolled climate change denial,” as Treehugger recently pointed out. The same post acknowledges the irony of oil companies “planning for the inevitability of man-made climate change.” Oil companies really do have climate adaptation strategies in place. As Marc Gunther of Greenbiz stated in an article last week, “Even the oil and gas industry — which, of course, is a major contributor to climate change — is paying heed.” Why would an industry that pumped so much money into climate change denial invest in adapting to it? It’s really simple: climate change will affect the company’s bottom line. A 2009 report by IBM, Acclimatise and Carbon Disclosure Project found that the oil and gas industry is not prepared for the impacts of climate change to their physical assets. Climate change impacts, according to the report, “will become more severe creating new and enhanced risks for the oil and gas sector.” Photo above courtesy of treehugger.com.
Just Science iPhone App Simplifies Climate Change Information. Treehugger.com has details on a new app that takes some of the confusion out of climate science: “If you have an interest in climate change data, you’re going to want to download the free app, Just Science. This app makes it easy to understand what is going on with shifts on our planet and lets you draw your own conclusions. All you get is straight science inside interesting visuals. Just Science uses the video map of climate change released by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) study. Recorded changes in Earth’s land temperature between 1800 and 2009 are displayed on a color-coded map, and you can see how today’s monthly temperatures deviate from historical averages. Basically, you can watch the information play out in front of you and decide for yourself if you think the planet’s climate patterns are changing. (Spoiler Alert: they are.)” Photo above courtesy of planetsave.com – which has another article about “Just Science” here.
Scientists Challenging Climate Science Appear To Flunk Climate Economics. From the New York Time’s Dot Earth blog: “A op-ed article signed by 16 scientists rejecting the need for “drastic action to decarbonize the world’s economy,” published Friday by the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal, has been widely and thoroughly fact-checked and challenged elsewhere. Peter Frumhoff of the Union of Concerned Scientists criticizes their take on the science in a piece titled, “Dismal Science at The Wall Street Journal.” Peter Gleick, an analyst of global water and climate issues, chides the newspaper in a Forbes post, noting that the Journal turned down a letter of concern about human-driven climate change from 255 members of the National Academy of Sciences (which ended up published in the journal Science). Chris Mooney dismantles what he calls the authors’ “reductio ad Lysenko” argument. There’s lots more. (Of course Climate Depot finds the letter breathlessly exciting.)”
Setting The Record Straight On Climate Change: Experts Respond. Here is an Op-Ed that appears on WSJ.com, a rebuttal to an Op-Ed from a group of climate skeptics a few days ago. This Op-Ed also appears on the blog, Climate Communication: “Do you consult your dentist on your heart condition? In science, as in any area, reputations are based on knowledge and expertise in a field, and on published, peer-reviewed work. If you need surgery, you want a highly experienced expert in the field who has done a large number of the proposed operations. On January 27, the Wall Street Journal published an op-ed on climate change by the climate science equivalent of dentists practicing cardiology. While accomplished in their own fields, most of these authors have no expertise in climate science. The few authors who have such expertise are known to have extreme views that are out of step with nearly every other climate expert. This happens in nearly every field of science. For example, there is a retrovirus expert who does not accept that HIV causes AIDS. And it is instructive to recall that a few scientists continued to state that smoking did not cause cancer, long after that was settled science. Climate experts know that the long-term warming trend has not abated in the past decade. In fact, it was the warmest decade on record. Observations show unequivocally that our planet is getting hotter.”
Senate Chooses Partisanship Over The Public
The Senate GOP’s rejection of Ellen Anderson as a member of the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (PUC) is a step in the wrong direction for the state. Anderson’s career includes two decades as a champion for increasing the amount of energy Minnesotans get from clean, renewable sources such as wind and solar power. The notion of clean energy is not “radical” and “out of step” as some Senators claimed today, but rather, it is very much in the mainstream of what Minnesotans expect from our utility providers.
Anderson has served nearly one year as a commissioner prior to today’s vote. In that time, she voted 216 times with the majority of her colleagues, including 201 unanimous votes, and only 6 times in the minority. Anderson’s ability to work collaboratively with all parties and arrive at solutions that are broadly supported by all members of the PUC reflects thevery best of what Minnesotans expect from our elected and appointed officials.
None of the Senators who advocated for Anderson’s firing today cited any examples of misconduct that would merit her dismissal, nor did they articulate examples of how her personal opinions negatively affected her duties and responsibilities as a commissioner. Today’s vote was simply partisan politics at its worst, and it contributes to the cynicism of many Minnesotans who see the Capitol as highly divisive and unable to work together to solve the many challenges facing our state.
March Madness on January 31 (close to another record high today)
44 F. high in the Twin Cities Monday. We missed an all-time record by only 4 degrees.
25 F. average high for January 30.
23 F. a year ago, on January 30, 2011.
46 F. today’s record high, set in 1995, again in 2009. We may come close by 3 pm.
19% Based on National Weather Service heating degree days (3,663 since July 1 vs. 4,509 average) we’ve saved roughly 19% on heating bills since the start of the fall/winter heating season.
3 subzero nights so far this winter in the Twin Cities. We should have seen closer to 19 nights below zero by now.
28: average number of subzero nights at MSP during a typical winter, based on the latest 30 year NWS data set.
1 hour of extra daylight by tomorrow. Translation: since the Winter Solstice on December 21 we’ve picked up an additional 60 minutes of daylight here in the MSP metro area.
7.1 F. warmer than average so far in January here in the Twin Cities.
23.3 F. predicted final average temperature in January, the 8th warmest on record. Source: meteorologist Belinda Jensen during Monday’s 6 pm newscast.
5 of the last 8 months have been “Top 10 Warmest” months at MSP. Ever since last July the atmosphere has been locked in an unusually mild and dry pattern.
16 days colder than -40 F. so far in Fairbanks during January (most since 1971).
* Photo above was taken Sunday at 9am, posted by Allison Donovan on the University of Alaska
Facebook page. She calls it the “50 Below Club”.
Is The Worst Of Winter Behind Us? Photo comparison above courtesy of InForum.com. My tentative, humble and respectful answer is yes. It’s been one of the mildest winters on record; at the rate we’re going this will easily be a “Top 10 Warmest Winter” in the Twin Cities. So far we’ve had 3 nights below zero. Average is close to 28 nights of negative numbers. A few more subzero nights by late February, but no more numbing cold fronts are imminent. Are we really seeing fewer nights below zero at MSP, or is our imaginations? How much of this can be chalked up to the “Urban Heat Island” (metro buildings, industry and dark, asphalt roads releasing heat at night, keeping nighttime lows milder than they would be 30 miles outside the metro area?) Then again, although the metro was marginally smaller in the 70s, there was still an urban heat island a generation ago. Here’s the raw data since 1970, thanks to Pete Boulay at the Minnesota State Climate Office:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1970 18 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 33
1971 19 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 33
1972 18 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 47
1973 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 18
1974 14 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22
1975 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 26
1976 12 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 13 34
1977 26 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 10 43
1978 21 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 48
1979 21 13 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 37
1980 12 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 27
1981 7 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 26
1982 22 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 37
1983 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 22
1984 11 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 25
1985 15 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 16 45
1986 6 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 19
1987 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6
1988 17 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 33
1989 6 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 37
1990 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 12
1991 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 29
1992 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 12
1993 11 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 28
1994 16 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 29
1995 3 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 21
1996 17 8 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 45
1997 15 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 21
1998 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 13
1999 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 19
2000 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 22
2001 6 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20
2002 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
2003 8 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 25
2004 11 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 20
2005 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 11
2006 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3
2007 3 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 18
2008 13 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 35
2009 15 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 26
2010 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 14
2011 7 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15
2012 3 - - - - - - - - - - - 3
Average 11.7 7.8 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.2 27.8
Subzero Nights At MSP. Here are the averages, per decade:
1970-79: 34.1
1980-89: 22.7
1990-99: 33.9
2000-2012 (to date): 21.4
* looking at nighttime lows below zero at MSP, the 90s were colder than the 80s, the 13 winters since 2000 have been significantly warmer than previous decades. Since 2002 we’ve experienced 3 winters with fewer than 3 subzero nights. Will we see more subzero weather in the metro by late March? Probably, but the odds are dropping off with each passing day.
2011: 9th warmest year on record, worldwide, according to NASA (in spite of a lingering La Nina cooling phase of the Pacific ocean). Details below.
Close Call This Weekend? The 00z GFS model brings a storm into far southern Minnesota during the PM hours Saturday, the atmosphere warm enough for a rain/snow mix, with a couple inches of slush not out of the question from Albert Lea to Winona – the brunt of the moisture (once again) sliding off south of MSP. What do we have to do to get a real storm here?
* the ECMWF model keeps the Saturday storm well south/east of Minnesota. I doubt we’ll see any significant snow (or rain) from this system. Why should this weekend be any different? We’re in a drought, and the longer it drags on the more I fear that drought will be one of the biggest weather stories of 2012 for Minnesota. Hope I’m wrong.
Wildly Gyrating Models. The 12z run of the GFS brought subzero weather into MSP around Feb. 10-12, but the latest (00z) run keeps bitter air well north/east of Minnesota, with highs consistently in the 30s through mid February. We’ll see.
February 15…or March 15? The GFS solution above shows 500 mb (18,000 foot) winds aloft on February 15, with a persistent westerly flow from the Pacific air, numbing, subzero air still dammed up 300-600 miles north of MInnesota. The map above looks like something out of mid March, not mid February. Could the worst of winter be behind us? I suspect that’s the case.
An Early Tornado Season. “Stan and Jeanne Leo survived the Jan. 23rd tornado in their custom built home built in 1986. Stan designed the home and built it to withstand high winds. It did just that. Meteorologist Tim Coleman saw the intact house that did slide off of the foundation by 20 feet and stopped at the house while doing tornado assessment after the storm. The Leo’s survived in their bedroom and were rescued by firefighters. The home now rests at a 15 degree angle, fully intact. (AP Photo/The Birmingham News, Joe Songer).”
68 tornadoes so far this year; third highest number on record, to date (SPC).
6.18″ rain in Dallas this month; second wettest January on record.
Why Head South? As I mentioned in today’s print column, I went a little overboard last fall scheduling time away from Minnesota this winter. I love snow (2 Polaris sleds help a lot), but the older I get the tougher it gets rationalizing subzero cold and nasty ice. Like everyone else – I was a little freaked out by CPC’s predictions of “much colder/snowier” for the northern tier states. That ‘dang La Nina would bite us again, right? Wrong. The long range prediction couldn’t have been more wrong. So back in September I make arrangements to be gone 4 weeks during the height of winter, including a cruise last week with my father and sister. It was a good week, highs in the 70s and low 80s in the Caribbean, plenty of good times at the buffet (where I gained 6 pounds). Only one thing was missing: the urge to call/text/e-mail friends back in Minnesota with weather updates from Nassau, Charlotte Amalie and St. Maarten. Why bother when it’s in the 40s back home? Snowbirds are at a rare (and welcome) loss for words this winter…some wondering why they even went south this winter. Or should I say, “winter”? We’re not out of the woods just yet, odds favor a few more subzero nights (maybe by the end of next week) but I still suspect that looking at nighttime lows and wind chill readings the worst of winter, a winter that’s setting warm weather records left and right, is probably behind us now. Now, back to my fast….
* photo above courtesy of funtoosh.com.
Wisconsin Tremor. A 2.4 quake on the Richter Scale 11 miles west southwest of Kenosha, Wisconsin? The data above is from USGS. Now I’ve (officially) seen everything.
Kentucky Sunrise. Thanks to Maureen Kudravy, who took this photo of the Polo Grounds in Louisville, Kentucky with her trusty iPhone.
Boston’s Growing Snow Drought:
Total snowfall as of yesterday: 7.6 inches for the Boston area.
Average total snowfall (30 years) as of Jan. 25: 20.8 inches.
Total snowfall by Jan. 25, 2011: 50.4 inches.
Annual average total snowfall for the last 30 years: 41.8 inches
Total snowfall for the winter of 2010-2011: 81 inches.
Latest snowfall: May 8-9, 1977. Boston received a half inch of snow. Worcester received about a foot.
Since 1892 there have been 10 years with less than 20 inches of total snowfall.
Least total snowfall: 9 inches for the winter of 1936-1937.
Second most least: 10.3 inches for the winter of 1972-1973.
Third least: 12.7 inches for the winter of 1979-1980.
Haverhill spent about $2.2 million on snow plowing and associated operations last winter. The city has spent approximately $275,000 this year, Haverhill’s public works Director Michael Stankovich said.
Source: http://www.eagletribune.com/haverhill/x1296870112/What-a-difference-a-year-makes (thanks to Chad Merrill at Earth Networks for passing this on).
* Boston skyline photo above courtesy of Michael Dwyer, AP.
Twisters: Scientists Come Closer To Finding Method To Predict Tornadoes. Here’s an interesting, and potentially promising, story from The Christian Science Monitor and The Alaska Dispatch: “Scientists have developed a fledgling ability to predict monthly tornado activity in the US up to one month in advance. The technique, which uses existing weather-forecasting tools, is not yet ready for prime time. But in initial tests, the approach showed “statistically significant skill” in predicting regional tornado activity during most months of the year, including the peak of the spring tornado season, the researchers say. If the approach can be honed sufficiently, eventually it could allow forecasters to identify portions of states facing the highest risk for tornadoes in an upcoming month.”
Photo credit above: “Alabama Power crews work to restore power lines at Hwy 79 and Winewood Road in Birmingham, Ala., Jan. 25, 2012. Recovery and clean up continues in the areas affected by the January 23rd tornado (AP Photo/The Birmingham News, Joe Songer).”
Tornado Mindset Takes Hold In Alabama. What is going on with tornadoes and the state of Alabama? Forget “Tornado Alley” – now “Dixie Alley” is generating most of the headlines, injuries and tornado-related deaths, especially the last 3 years. The Birmingham News has more on the (new) mindset emerging among Alabama residents: “In Alabama, tornadoes never go out of season. Last week’s storms that killed two people, flattened communities and pounded a school offered a stark reminder of that fact. While tornadoes are most common in March and April, they can strike at any time of year, and experts say Alabamians can’t afford to wait until spring to be ready. “We need to be prepared year-round,” said Allen Kniphfer, the director of Jefferson County’s Emergency Management Agency. The trick is knowing what that means.”
Photo credit above: “Susan Legate had an above-ground, 4-foot-by-6-foot storm shelter installed in her garage by Supercell Shelters in her Helena home. (Birmingham News Photo Linda Stelter).”
Researchers Study Cost-Effectiveness Of Storm Protection. The Tartan Online has the story: “Last year was plagued with monetary losses from tropical cyclones — Hurricane Irene was estimated to cost over $7 billion in damages alone, according to ABC News. With some scientists predicting an increase in intense weather due to the sea’s rising surface temperatures, it is becoming increasingly important to protect coastal populations. Researchers at Carnegie Mellon and Massachusetts Institute of Technology have collaborated to study the cost effectiveness of different approaches to storm management and to look at possibilities for the future.”
Tornadoes In Unusual Places. Here is an update on a small tornado that touched down on Pakenham, a suburb of Melbourne, Australia, courtesy of The Berwick Leader: “Video footage has shown a tornado passing through Pakenham today. The 26 second video has been posted on Twitter following severe storms in Melbourne’s outer east. Weather bureau duty forecaster Michael Efron said he would have to closely study the video before confirming it was a tornado, but the natural phenomena were not unusual in severe weather. “We probably see a couple every second summer,” Mr Efron said. Today’s wild weather has passed, Mr Effron said. “The worst is over for Melbourne and the outer south east, but we will see showers redeveloping later in the evening,” he said.”
* video clip courtesy of yfrog.com.
Next-Generation “Vehicle Protection Jammer” Protects Against IEDs. Here’s an interesting story from gizmag.com: “Improvised Explosive Devices, or IEDs, are one of the largest sources of coalition casualties in Iraq. Many of these IEDs take the form of roadside bombs, which are hidden on or alongside a road, then detonated when a moving vehicle passes near them. While there is more than one way of causing these bombs to detonate, they are often set off by a hidden human observer, using a radio-control device. Forces using the new Vehicle Protection Jammer from EADS subsidiary Cassidian, however, should find themselves at a greatly-reduced risk of such attacks. The Jammer works by detecting and classifying radio signals that could be used to set off a bomb. It responds in less than a microsecond, by transmitting jamming signals tuned specifically to that band.”
A Shower Of Blue Balls? Just when you think you’ve seen it all, along comes an odd story from neatorama.com: “Add this to the list of mysterious things that fell from the sky: Steve Hornsby from Bournemouth said the 3cm diameter balls came raining down late on Thursday afternoon during a hail storm. He found about a dozen of the balls in his garden. He said: “[They're] difficult to pick up, I had to get a spoon and flick them into a jam jar.” [...]
March Madness. Coming on January 30 that’s no small task. While a coating of snow fell at Duluth and International Falls from a weak clipper, highs reached 37 at St. Cloud, 41 at Rochester and an almost balmy 44 in the Twin Cities, nearly 20 degrees above average.
Paul’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
TODAY: Average…for March 20. Mild sun. Winds: W 10-15. High: near 45 (record is 46, set in 2009).TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, unusually mild. Low: 26
WEDNESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, still March-like. High: 41 THURSDAY: Clouds increase – slushy, mushy and mild. Low: 25. High: 43 FRIDAY: Patchy clouds, few flakes? Low: 27. High: 38 SATURDAY: Plenty of sun, good travel weather. Low: 23. High: 34 SUNDAY: Sunny start, PM clouds increase. Low: 24. High: near 40 MONDAY: More clouds, flurries north. Low: 25. High: 34Snowbird Trainee?
I’m feeling…guilty. For 28 winters I’ve been making fun of snowbirds, those wise and wimpy refugees who flee south for the winter, thumbing their collective noses at cold and snow. Last fall NOAA’s Climate Center was predicting a much colder and snowier winter for the northern USA. For the record I thought we’d have a drier winter with a continuation/escalation of the drought, but we were ALL caught off-guard by how mild it’s been, in spite of La Nina. 5 of the last 8 months will wind up in the “Top 10 Warmest” category for the Twin Cities. Yes, it’s a trend. Snow lovers are pretty despondent, while everyone else feels like they’ve won the Weather Lotto; more of a Louisville winter. “What happened to winter, Paul?” I hear this everywhere I go. The pattern is locked: still no significant snow (or cold). This week will feel like March; 3 or 4 days above 40. Models are hinting at a cooler front by the end of next week, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see 1 or 2 more nights below zero in February, but no numbing air is imminent. We’re not quite out of the woods just yet, but (amazingly), I still suspect the worst winter is probably behind us now. I do love the snow, but the older I get the harder it becomes to rationalize bitter cold and ice. So I scheduled 4 weeks off to “study tropical weather patterns”. Duh. The reality: this winter we’ve all been transformed into reluctant snowbirds.Climate Stories…
Will Steger: Make America Climate-Literate. Here’s an Op-Ed in the Star Tribune: “Even though I am most known as a polar explorer, my career and lifelong passion has been as an educator. As soon as I graduated from the University of St. Thomas in 1967, I taught middle-school science. At the time, scientists thought global warming was something that we would start seeing far into the future. I had no idea I would become an eyewitness to so many changes in my own lifetime. It wasn’t until 2002, when the Larsen B ice shelf disintegrated from western Antarctica — an ice shelf formed more than 12,000 years ago that my expedition team took a full month to ski across — that the facts of global warming prompted me to take action.”
NASA Claims 2011 Was 9th Warmest Year On Record Worldwide. Huffington Post has the details: “Where did 2011 stand in comparison to global temperatures from past years? NASA recently released a visualization that depicts global temperature changes since 1880. Although nine of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2000, 2011 was only the ninth warmest year on record, according to NASA. The world’s average temperature in 2011 was 0.92 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the mid-20th century baseline period of 1951 to 1980, NASA’s press release explained. James E. Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, said, “We know the planet is absorbing more energy than it is emitting. So we are continuing to see a trend toward higher temperatures. Even with the cooling effects of a strong La Niña influence and low solar activity for the past several years, 2011 was one of the 10 warmest years on record.”
2011: Earth’s 11th Warmest Year; Where Is The Climate Headed? Here’s an important recent post from Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground: “The year 2011 tied with 1997 as the 11th warmest year since records began in 1880, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center said last week. NASA rated 2011 as the 9th warmest on record. Land temperatures were the 8th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures, the 11th warmest. For the Arctic, which has warmed about twice as much as the rest of the planet, 2011 was the warmest year on record (between 64°N and 90°N latitude.) The year 2011 was also the 2nd wettest year over land on record, as evidenced by some of the unprecedented flooding Earth witnessed. The wettest year over land was the previous year, 2010.” Graphic above courtesy of NASA’s Earth Obser vatory and Weather Underground.
New NASA Study Confirms Man-Made Influence Over Global Warming. Click Green has the story: “A new NASA study confirms the fact that greenhouse gases generated by human activity – not changes in solar activity – are the primary force driving global warming. The study offers an updated calculation of the Earth’s energy imbalance, the difference between the amount of solar energy absorbed by Earth’s surface and the amount returned to space as heat. The researchers’ calculations show that, despite unusually low solar activity between 2005 and 2010, the planet continued to absorb more energy than it returned to space. James Hansen, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City, led the research. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics recently published the study. ”
U.S. Dept. of Agriculture New “Hardiness Zones” Show Impact of Global Warming. Patterns are shifting north, to the tune of 100-150 miles, certain species of plants, flowers, shrubs and trees growing in places they couldn’t grow a generation ago. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has updated their maps accordingly. Here’s a press release from prweb.com: “Gardeners who have noticed some unusual goings-on in their yards had their suspicions confirmed this week when the US Dept. of Agriculture released its new map of plant hardiness zones. The map confirms what many gardeners have already figured out about global warming and the impact it is having on plants. Hardiness zones, based on minimum winter temperatures, are marching northward. This means that plants that wouldn’t have survived through winter in some regions just 20 years ago are now making it. Comparing the new 2012 map to the last map published in 1990 shows some significant shifts, especially across the Great Plains. Though the USDA cautions that not all the changes to the map can be attributed to climate change, it is clear that the major shifts are related to warmer temperatures. For example, Iowa and Nebraska used to straddle Zones 4 and 5, but now fall almost entirely within the warmer Zone 5.”
On Climate Change, Weathercasters May Be Misguiding Their Viewers. The story from Huffington Post: “If you are like most Americans, the weather forecast on tonight’s evening news may be your only exposure to science all day. And there’s a good chance that your trusted local weathercaster is your only regular source of information on climate change. This seeming monopoly on the public’s exposure to a critical issue has consequences, according to environmental advocates. Recent studies have found that more than half of the reporters relaying weather on television do not believe humans are the primary drivers of global warming — despite a consensus among scientists who specialize on the topic.”
Activists Want Climate Change On Local TV Weather Reports. Climate science doesn’t lend itself to pithy, 10 second TV soundbites. Meteorologists are given 2-4 minutes to explain the weather; there’s precious little time alloted to cover climate science. Not to say it’s impossible to weave it into the weather narratives (since weather and climate are flip sides of the same coin), but it’s not easy, trust me. The Houston Chronicle has the latest on a campaign to expose climate “deniers”, but are TV meteorologists even equipped to be able to provide accurate updates of the state of climate science? Who else is going to be able to share this with the viewing public on a regular basis? “The fight for hearts and minds when it comes to climate change has moved to a new battleground: your television set. Climate change activists have launched a campaign, dubbed Forecast the Facts, that outs television meteorologists who are “deniers” of mainstream climate change science. Led by several groups, including 350.org, the League of Conservation Voters, and the Citizen Engagement Lab, the campaign was spurred by recent surveys finding that half or more of TV forecasters hold contrarian climate change views. “TV meteorologists have as much, if not more, opportunity to talk to the American public about climate change than anyone,” said Daniel Souweine, director of the Forecast the Facts drive. “Ultimately, our goal is to change how the entire profession of meteorology reports on climate change,” Souweine said.”
Are Houston’s TV Forecasters Climate Change Skeptics? Eric Berger, The “SciGuy” at The Houston Chronicle, has more details: “This weekend the Chronicle ran a story I wrote on the Forecast the Facts campaign, which essentially seeks to out TV meteorologists who hold contrarian views on climate change science. As part of that I asked the region’s main TV forecasters, when it comes to climate change, whether they’re more in agreement with statements by concurring organizations or non-committal statements. Here are their responses:
GENE NORMAN, KHOU-TV
“I’ve been studying this subject for a while; in fact, I’m currently reading “The Climate Fix” by Roger Pielke Jr. Sometimes perception is reality, proven by scientific measurement. I do see changes in weather patterns and increases in extreme weather but the linkage to human activity isn’t fully clear to me.”
* photo of Gene Norman above courtesy of The Houston Chronicle.
Research Shows Climate Change May Shrink Wheat Crop. The ABC Network in Australia has the story: “MARK COLVIN: New research predicts that climate change will have a far greater impact on wheat crops than expected. Scientists from Stanford University found that a two degree increase in temperatures would reduce the growing season by nine days, yielding 20 per cent less wheat. This could have a dire effect on global food security. Meredith Griffiths reports. MEREDITH GRIFFITHS: Wheat is the world’s second biggest crop and provides a fifth of the world’s protein. But it doesn’t grow well in the heat.”
Photo credit above: “In a Sept. 28, 2011 (file) photo, Arlyn North plants a field to winter wheat as the early evening sun paints the hills with color along the Smoky Hill River southwest of Hays, Kansas. The nation’s farmers seeded more winter wheat this season amid higher prices and easing drought conditions in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The National Agricultural Statistics Service reported Thursday, Jan 12, 2012 that the 41.9 million acres of winter wheat planted for harvest in 2012 is up 3 percent from 2011 and up 12 percent from 2010. (AP Photo/The Hays Daily News, Steven Hausler).”
Arctic Ice Melt Lifts Hopes For Russian Maritime Trade. Reuters has an update: “SEVERODVINSK, Russia, Jan 27 (Reuters) – When severe snowstorms prevented life-sustaining fuel supplies from reaching the frozen Alaskan town of Nome, U.S. officials turned to a Russian company for help. The relief mission through perilous, ice-choked seas was the first mid-winter fuel delivery to western Alaska, capping a year of pioneering shipping as oil and gas development and climate change increase traffic along northern trade routes sought by centuries of Arctic explorers.”
Big Business Adapting To Climate Change. The Business Mirror has the story: “THE world’s largest companies, once wary of the costs and risks of dealing with climate change, now realize they may provide key business opportunities in the years ahead. Over the past few years, big businesses began to realize that climate change was a business imperative that needed to be dealt with. The approach to environment issues has changed greatly, making it now a company’s core strategy, according to the United Nations’ climate agency that launched over the weekend a new online database showcasing successful business strategies in climate-change adaptation. The database, which can be accessed through the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) web site www.unfccc.int, features more than 100 examples from companies, such as Coca-Cola, Levi’s, Microsoft and Starbucks, which share the details of their business-friendly adaptation practices.”
Mild End to January
Todd’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
MONDAY: Lingering flurries possible early, then partly sunny and much warmer by afternoon. High: 39. Winds: SSW 5-10mph
MONDAY NIGHT: Mild overnight temperatures, quiet. Low: 28. Winds: WSW 5mph
TUESDAY: Last day of January. Mild with a little light rain and snow possible later. High: 40. Winds: W 10-20mph
WEDNESDAY: AM flurry or two. More PM sun, happy February. Daylight has increased 1 hour since the shortest days of the year in late December. Low: 24. High: 36. Winds: WSW 5-10mph
THURSDAY: Groundhog Day! Clouds thicken, a few flurries late. Low: 23. High: 36
FRIDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries. Low: 21 High: 32
SATURDAY: Sunny first Saturday of February. Low: 20. High: 34
SUNDAY: High pressure keeps weather quiet. Low: 22. High: 35
Sunday Satellite The satellite image below is from Sunday. With somewhat clear skies across much of the area, you can see the somewhat wintry landscape. I’ve highlighted some of the bigger cities in red and outlined the frozen lakes in yellow. Can you name the lakes? The darker bodies of water are Lake Superior and Lake Michigan that are still mostly ice free.Also note that there is a pretty sharp snow line across Iowa, the northern part of the state has a little on the ground, but the southern half is snow free. Not only do we turn the page to a new calendar month this week, but we also are up one hour of daylight since the shortest days of the year in late December. Not sure I can say the worst of winter’s snow and cold is behind us, but we sure are making strides towards those warmer days.
For those of you who are interested in the long range winter forecast, don’t forget to tune in on Thursday for a big announcement from on the most popular and well known rodents across the globe. Punxsutawney Phill will have a prediction at 7:20AM EST from Gobler’s Knob and decide whether or not to take another 6 week nap. The forecast for Punxsutawney, PA calls for cloudier skies early Thursday and as legend has it, if he doesn’t see his shadow, it’ll be an early spring.
Regardless of what Phil says on Thursday, it’s going to feel more like March as temperatures bump up close to 40 degrees today and tomorrow. With temperatures as warm as they’ll be, I see no problem with us getting into a top 10 spot for one of the warmest January’s in recorded history. March-uary comes to an end on Tuesday with the potential for a little light rain/snow mix, how fitting.
Major Temperature Swing Take a look at the major temperature swing from Alaska to California! The information below was written up by WeatherNation Meteorologist Bryan Karrick on the WeatherNation Facebook page, check it out HERE: “Parts of Alaska have dipped into the 60s below zero this weekend, while residents in southern California have been basking in record breaking heat. Check out this CRAZY extreme from yesterday! Ft. Yukon, Alaska dropped to a low of 63-below zero. Fullerton, California shattered their old record of 75 set in 2009, with a very warm 83. You’re looking at a difference of 146 degrees! -Meteorologist Bryan Karrick“ Groundhog Day on Thursday Punxsutawney, PA will be crawling with people this week for the 126th Annual Groundhog Day festival. Arguably, the world’s most well known rodent will be in the spotlight on Thursday morning as he arrives from his heated den at Gobbler’s Knob. The forecast calls for cloudier skies AM Thursday, so there is a better chance he doesn’t see his shadow, which would mean an early spring! Check out the full list of events HERE: Warm End to January It certainly has been a mild month so far, in fact temperatures are running nearly 7 degrees above average, which is good enough to get in the top 10 warmest January’s on record. The last couple of days of January will feel more like March! The image below shows the temperature trend through the week. The peaks are high temperatures running up close to 40F (orange line) a couple times and staying well above average (blue line) through the first few days of February. Thanks for checking in and have a great week ahead! Don’t forget to check me out on Twitter: @TNelsonWNTV -Meteorologist Todd Nelson-
Coldest Day In Sight, But 10s & 20s… Come On
Todd’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
SUNDAY: Coldest day of the weekend. Partly sunny with increasing clouds by afternoon and flurries possible overnight. High: 22. Winds: WNW 5-10mph turning south late. SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a few light snow showers. Low: 20. Winds: S 5-10mph
MONDAY: Lingering flurries possible early, then partly sunny and a little warmer. High: 38.
TUESDAY: Mild with a little light rain and snow possible later. Low: 26. High: 38.
WEDNESDAY: AM flurry or two. More PM sun and mild for the first day of February. Low: 26. High: 37.
THURSDAY: Clouds thicken, a few flurries late. Low: 23. High: 34
FRIDAY: Sub-freezing daytime highs, for a change. Low: 20 High: 29
SATURDAY: Near average temps with bright sun. Low: 17. High: 29
Sure, today is going to be the coldest day in sight, but come on… we can handle 20s. We here are a hardy bunch, in fact, I heard reports of some brave souls dawning shorts when the mercury hit 40 last week. It has been a strange winter, no doubt.
Meteorologically speaking, we are nearly two-thirds of the way done with the coldest three month on average for the Northern Hemisphere, how about that! December ended up being the 10th warmest December in recorded history and January is following suit. There are only a few days left in the month and we’re already in the top ten warmest January’s on record. I think we’ll be able to retain that mark as temperatures into the early part of next week are expected to flirt with 40 once again.
If you’re wondering where the cold is, check Alaska where they are boasting one of the coldest January’s in recorded history. Fairbanks woke up to -50F on Saturday and that made the 14th day this month that temps have bottomed out to -40 or colder. As a general rule of thumb, when Alaska is cold, we are warm and the forecast for Alaska remains cold into the first week of February, so you know what that means for us!
Good Morning From Miami
Thanks to my good friend, Bay Scroggins, for the picture below. Even with mostly cloudy skies on Saturday, the temperature reached 82F! Ahh, I could use a nice 82F day right about now.
Boston, MA Extreme Snow Drought
The EagleTribune.com has some great stats on Boston, MA and their snow drought, take a look below.
You can see the full story HERE:
“Total snowfall as of yesterday: 7.6 inches for the Boston area. Average total snowfall (30 years) as of Jan. 25: 20.8 inches. Total snowfall by Jan. 25, 2011: 50.4 inches. Annual average total snowfall for the last 30 years: 41.8 inches Total snowfall for the winter of 2010-2011: 81 inches. Latest snowfall: May 8-9, 1977. Boston received a half inch of snow. Worcester received about a foot. Since 1892 there have been 10 years with less than 20 inches of total snowfall. Least total snowfall: 9 inches for the winter of 1936-1937. Second most least: 10.3 inches for the winter of 1972-1973. Third least: 12.7 inches for the winter of 1979-1980. Haverhill spent about $2.2 million on snow plowing and associated operations last winter. The city has spent approximately $275,000 this year, Haverhill’s public works Director Michael Stankovich said.“
Temperature Forecast
Take a look at the week ahead temperature forecast. After today, temperatures return to well above average levels. 40F may not be out of the question a couple of times! The image below shows the temperature trend through the next several days, the peaks indicate high temperatures. The orange horizontal line shows the 40F temperature line and the blue horizontal line shows the near normal temperature line for the end of January/start of February. Note how we stay above average after Sunday and get near 40F a few days. I think with forecast high temperatures as warm as they’ll be, we’ll get into the top 10 warmest January’s on record!
Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your weekend and great week ahead!
Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV
-Meteorologist Todd Nelson-
Wintry Weekend
Todd’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
SATURDAY: Turning colder. Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. High: 28. Winds: W 10-15 Gusts to 20mph SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy and colder with scattered light snow showers, light coating. Low: 10. Winds: WNW 5-10mph
SUNDAY: Coldest day of the weekend. Partly sunny with increasing clouds by afternoon and flurries possible overnight. High: 19. Winds: NW 5-10mph turning south late.
MONDAY: Lingering flurries possible early, then partly sunny and a little warmer. Low: 16. High: 36.
TUESDAY: Cloudy and mild with a light rain and snow mix possible. Low: 22. High: 36.
WEDNESDAY: Lingering clouds and flurries, still mild. Peeks of PM sun. Low: 24. High: 32.
THURSDAY: Cloudy, chance of light snow. Low: 21. High: 32
FRIDAY: Lingering light snow, cooler. Low: 21 High: 28
Friday’s Weather in Photos Friday was kind of a neat day weather-wise. I awoke to this faint sun pillar, which is visible just left of the church steeple. Sun pillars are shafts of light that reflect off of ice crystals in the atmosphere. Read more about it HERE: Snow Burst Those clouds were on the leading edge of a weak disturbance that brought fairly heavy burst of snow through Minnesota around midday. It wasn’t much and temperatures were warm enough to keep the light snow accumulations in wet & sloppy category rather than the fluffy and slippery category that we had earlier this week (AM Monday commute)See video of the falling snow HERE:
Friday’s Snow Reports
The Twin Cities didn’t get all that much, up to 1″, but there were reports of around 5″ in northern MN!
Check out this snowfall total website HERE:
The St. Paul Winter Carnival continues this weekend with a more wintry scene than what we had through the early part of January. Record setting temperatures in the 50s and 60s had event planners and ice sculptors a littler worried. However, the Arctic blast that we had last week with single digit high temperatures and overnight lows dipping below zero 3 times (nearly 16 times below normal) and the few snow burps this last week, folks are breathing a little easier. If your weekend plans take you to St. Paul for any of the festivities, the weather won’t disappoint. We’ll continue that wintry feel with a little light snow developing later today and temperatures falling to more normal levels tomorrow, we’ve had much worse before.
A strong Pacific jet will jam several Pacific storms along Canada’s west coast through the next several days. The relentless battering there will result in a somewhat active weather pattern for us as remnants of those systems wiggle through our neck of the woods. Nothing significant, but extended model runs hint at warm enough air for a rain and snow mix during Tuesday’s system. On average, winter worst of the cold is over.
First Lego Man in Space
” January 26, 2012 — It started out as a cool idea. Now, two teenagers from Toronto are garnering National attention after sending a Lego Man to the edge of the Earth’s atmosphere.”
See the full story HERE:
Let’s Stay in Space!
The sun continues to stay active as another solar storm occurred on Friday… It almost looks like a scorpion!
See the full story from SpaceWeather.com HERE:
“Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the cloud raced away from the sun at 2500 km/s or 5.6 million mph. The CME is not heading toward Earth, although it is too soon to rule out some kind of glancing blow on Jan. 28-29. Stay tuned for updates.”
See the video HERE:
Northern Lights Pictures
These are incredible shots of some of the recent northern lights events that have taken place close to home.
The pictures below are courtesy SpaceWeather.com
Stephan Hogland – Grand Marais, MN
“They actually were quite vague but eh extreme dark of the forest an along exposure made for some great images canon 5d mkII 14 mm Tamron aspherical lens, 400 asa f4 200 second exposure“
Bob Conzemius – Lake of the Woods, MN
Great stuff Bob! Neat video too!!
I had to drive north a couple hours to get away from the clouds. I found a spot on the south shore of Lake of the Woods and took aurora photos for three hours! As I was heading south back home, the interplanetary magnetic field went south too, and the auroras brightened up a lot, so I put the camera in the back window of my car and let it take aurora photos while I drove.
Also see the video at http://youtu.be/fADU5djWSkw
Northern Lights Forecast Bookmark
This is neat and bookmark worthy. It’s a forecast for the Aurora, which shows the intensity and possibility of viewing the current aurora!
See the forecast HERE:
Fairly Active Weather Ahead
The image below shows vorticity or spin in the atmosphere. Note the ‘vort maxes’ (I’ve highlighted them with a white ‘X’ – this shows areas of disturbed weather, where clouds and precipitation are more likely to occur. These ‘vort maxes’ are the result of a strong Pacific jet or a strong upper level wind slamming into the west coast of Canada. As the storm systems hit the west coast and the higher elevations of the Rockies, they tend to lose a lot of their moisture. As they descend down the lee side (east side) of the Rockies, they tend to dry out a bit, but we get the leftovers.
Weekend Precipitation
Note the heavy moisture along Canada’s west coast, this is where most of the moisture is being deposited. As the fast moving storm systems (clipper systems) cross over the prairie lands of Canada and the Dakota, they leave a little strip of moisture, which will be snow, but not much. One of these little systems will slide through later Saturday and give us another shot of light snow and another light coating. Plus, on the backside of this Saturday system, temperatures will chill down and return to near normal levels on Sunday.
St. Paul Winter Carnival Continues
It’s going to be a BIG weekend in St. Paul! The Winter Carnival continues and the Grand Parade is @2pm today. Check out the full list of events HERE:
HERE is the website
Thanks for checking in and have a great weekend!
Don’t forget to check me out on Twitter: @TNelsonWNTV
-Meteorologist Todd Nelson-
A State Park Quest
There is no question that we Minnesotans love our state parks. More than 9 million visits are logged to our 68 state parks each year. Bev Sundheim of Cannon Falls and her friend, Nancy Dreier, have visited all of them. Bev told the Cannon Falls Beacon that after hiking one afternoon in Frontenac State Park, “we joked about hiking all of the state parks in Minnesota, never thinking that we would really do it.”
But they did! Looking back on their hikes, Bev told the paper, “Every place has its own distinct beauty and uniqueness and something interesting to offer. I recommend everyone get out there and take advantage of Minnesota’s great state park resources.”
Bev and Nancy aren’t alone. For many Minnesotans, cherished memories are created in our state’s spectacular parks. When state lawmakers tried to balance the budget last year by forcing the DNR to harvest and sell black walnut trees in some state parks, it’s no wonder that an unprecedented outpouring of Minnesotans responded, forcing officials to abandon this gimmick.
Minnesotans don’t want their elected officials to play politics with these state treasures, but short-sighted decisions by lawmakers are impacting our parks. Repeated, deep budget cuts are taking their toll on our state, regional and local parks. Many have been forced to cut hours and services, including trail maintenance and visitor centers. Cities and counties have an increasingly difficult time keeping their parks clean and accessible, bad news for the families who live nearby. What’s worse, DNR Commissioner Tom Landwehr repeatedly warned lawmakers in 2011 that, if this funding trend continues, some state parks may be forced to close.
In addition to deep cuts, our analysis of the 2012-13 conservation budget shows another troubling trend. Lawmakers are backfilling some of the cuts with money from both the Legacy Amendment and lottery funds, even though the law specifically says that this money is supposed to be used in addition to traditional sources of funding.
Conservation Minnesota is dedicated to keeping our parks open, accessible and safe for families all over the state to enjoy. We’re working with lawmakers and state agencies to find long-term, stable sources of funding instead of risky schemes like for-profit logging.
Minnesotans should be able to take up Bev and Nancy’s challenge without worrying that some of our state parks will close before they have a chance to visit.
A Great Crossroads for the Outdoors
“The last years of my life were spent in the cause of forestry, in that cause . . . the best work of my life was done.”*
General Christopher C. Andrews
For conservation in Minnesota, the big news this week was the confirmation hearing for Tom Landwehr as the DNR Commissioner in front of the Senate Environment and Natural Resources Committee. Under Minnesota law, the governor can appoint commissioners upon the advice and consent of the Senate. Therefore, after the governor appoints a commissioner he can start to serve right away and at some time in the future the Senate can confirm that appointment. The Senate can also remove a Commissioner from office by specifically denying the confirmation, but they can only do this one time on an up-or-down vote. For that reason it is a common practice for the Senate to sit on a confirmation just to make the Commissioner sweat a little bit particularly when the governor is about another party.
Therefore, it was good news for Landwehr this week when the Senate committee unanimously recommended that he be confirmed. The matter will still have to be taken up by the full Senate for it to be final, but based on the dialogue in committee it looks like a green light for his confirmation by the full Senate. Having the confirmation behind him will hopefully strengthen his position going forward as he leads the DNR through a historic period of change. Therefore, I thought it appropriate to dedicate our history lesson for our friend Commissioner Landwehr.
Commissioner, next time you walk into the Office of the Governor I want you to look to the right at the historic painting over the receptionist’s desk. You will notice, behind the tired drummer boy in the picture, a distinguished union general riding his horse into Little Rock, Arkansas. Depending on how you recount the history of the DNR that man is your distant predecessor as Commissioner. He is General CC Andrews.
This painting is of the victorious march of the Minnesota Third Infantry into Little Rock, Arkansas in the summer of 1863. In the foreground of the painting is the exhausted drummer boy peaceably staggering up the road into Little Rock at the head of the line, the Minnesotans stretched out in the background coming up from the Arkansas River. Riding tall in the saddle just behind the drummer boy leading his exhausted column is the commander of the Minnesota Third, Gen. Andrews.
This son of a New Hampshire farmer grew up to excel in academics at a Boston Academy and gained admittance to the bar in Massachusetts. Swept up by the fever of Western expansion among the hardy stock of New Englanders, he relocated to St. Cloud, Minnesota in 1856 where he set up a law office in the midst of a lumber boom. His leadership qualities were soon recognized and, at barely 30 years of age, he was elected to the Minnesota State Senate soon after the state was admitted to the union.
During the Civil War Andrews distinguished himself quickly, rising to the rank of commander of the Minnesota Third. In one of the most successful campaigns in the western theater, Andrews’ Third executed an exhausting and brilliant 100-mile march on the Arkansas capitol of Little Rock. Despite being plagued by debilitating sickness, the Minnesotans out maneuvered the Confederate Army to capture Little Rock against a well-entrenched opposition with only a few shots being fired and minor casualties.
Andrews and the Minnesota Third remained on as the occupying force of Little Rock. Andrews’ tact and diplomacy gained him renown as a fair and benevolent occupying commander. He was instrumental in helping foster loyalty towards the Union within Arkansas who would soon reorganize as a free state. At the conclusion of the Civil War he was mustered out as a major general.
His excellent diplomatic skills demonstrated during his command in Arkansas did not go unrecognized. After the war he was tapped to be a diplomat for the United States to such countries as Norway, Sweden and Brazil. Despite his success at war and abroad, he yearned to return to Minnesota. He finally returned in the early 1880s and quickly became one of the leading, if not prophetic, voices for reform in our forestry practices. He preached against clear cutting and advocated for sound scientific conservation practices he had observed in Scandinavian countries.
In the wake of the 1894 great Hinckley forest fire, he pushed for a scientifically driven state forestry post to be created by the Legislature. The State Legislature, under pressure from the great Hinckley tragedy, needed to act but was still controlled by the lumber industry. Instead of a state forestry post as advocated by Andrews, they created the post of Chief Fire Warden. Not to be out maneuvered, the wily general outflanked the state legislature and successfully pushed for his appointment to the position.
He realized that passing bills in St. Paul would do little to change the forest landscape. Therefore, starting at age 65 he transformed this position over the next 27 years into a dominating force for forest conservation and sustainable management. He became an evangelist of good forest management in the townships all across the forested regions of our state. It was his tireless work out in the field that helped transform public opinion later, laying the groundwork for Minnesota’s early leadership in conservation. He never stopped pressing the concept of forestry protection until his death in 1922 at the age of 92. Our state honored him by naming a state forest after him just outside of Willow River.
Today Commissioner Landwehr, you are facing a state at a great crossroads when it comes to our great outdoors. The voters of Minnesota have blessed us with a constitutional amendment dedicating substantial resources for the preservation of our great outdoors. It’ll be under your tenure that the precedent will be set on whether these resources will go to expand the protections of natural resources future generations or simply be swallowed up to backfill in budget cuts. It will be also on your watch that the state will likely permit for the first time mining operations that could produce the most toxic runoff our lakes and rivers have ever tasted. You will play a critical role in protecting our future generations from having to clean up this damage. We are also facing an unprecedented invasion of invasive species on multiple fronts.
So Commissioner, your friends at Conservation Minnesota are wishing you all the best, confident you will fill the shoes of Gen. Andrews well. Just remember, every time you walk by the reception desk on your way to visit the governor, your old predecessor CC Andrews will be watching. We hope it will be said of you when you complete your tenure as Commissioner that your best work will have been done in protecting our outdoors for future generations.
*R. Newell Seale, Minnesota Forestry Comes of Age: Christopher C. Andrews 1895-1911, p. 15. Quoting from Alice E. Andrews, ed., The Recollections of Christopher C. Andrews (Cleveland; Arthur, Clark and Son, 1928) p 275
Clippin’ Along
Todd’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
FRIDAY: Another clipper approaches, light snow and light accumulations 1″ possible. High: 33. Winds: Turning WNW 10-15FRIDAY NIGHT: Light snow tapers with decreasing clouds and some clearing. Low: 15. Winds: NW 10-15.
SATURDAY: Turning colder. Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. High: 27. Winds: W 5-15.SUNDAY: Coldest day of the weekend. Some sun early with increasing clouds by afternoon and flurries possible overnight Low: 8. High: 18.
MONDAY: Clouds thicken, PM drizzle or flurries possible by late afternoon. Low: 11. High: 31.
TUESDAY: Wintry mix changes to snow. Low: 20. High: 34.
WEDNESDAY: Lingering clouds and flurries, still mild. Low: 23. High: 32.
THURSDAY: Another mild day, more PM sun. Low: 22. High: 35
Hockey Rink Roof Collapse This is unreal and it’s unbelievable that nobody got hurt! Heavy snow was a contributing factor to the roof of this hockey rink in Slovakia collapsing. Ex-NHLer Richard Zednik was on the ice just before the collapse. See the video/story HERE:
Here’s an interesting stat, Wednesday’s rainfall across parts of Texas (25% of the state still considered in an exceptional drought) had it’s heaviest rainfall event (some spots had nearly 10″) since Tropical Storm Hermine back in September 2010. Unfortunately, Texas is still so far behind normal precipitation that this was more of a drought denter versus a drought buster.
We could use a little more substantial moisture up this way as well. The U.S. Drought Monitor has most of Minnesota in a moderate drought and nearly 25% of the state in the severe drought category, which encompasses part of the southern Metro.
Snow enthusiasts are all too aware of the snow drought this season as we are nearly 17″ behind normal. At this time last year, the Twin Cities had seen nearly 56″ and were well on our way into record setting territory. We may be in record setting territory again this year, but on the other end of the scale. Our measly 14.4″ of snow so far this year is within the top ten lightest snowfall seasons on record, for now… we still have a lot of winter left. A clipper drop through today and kicks out a light snow coating by the afternoon.
NUMBERS SHOW JANUARY 2012 IN FAIRBANKS HAS BEEN FRIGID…
TEMPERATURES IN FAIRBANKS HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH THE MONTH OF JANUARY TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
IN FACT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 15 TO 17 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH HAS BEEN -24.6 DEGREES WHICH IS 16.7 DEGREES BELOW THE JANUARY AVERAGE MEAN TEMPERATURE OF -7.9 DEGREES MAKING IT THE 7TH COLDEST JANUARY ON RECORD.
WITH SEVERAL DAYS STILL LEFT IN THE MONTH AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S BELOW…THIS MONTH WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE 5 COLDEST ON RECORD.
THE AVERAGE HIGH SO FAR HAS BEEN -15.5 DEGREES…WELL BELOW THE AVERAGE HIGH OF 1.1 DEGREES ABOVE. THE AVERAGE LOW HAS BEEN -33.6 DEGREES…WELL BELOW THE AVERAGE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF -16.9 DEGREES. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK…BUT THAT MODERATION WILL ONLY PUSH TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR JANUARY.
Concerned Crab and Cod Fishermen in the Bering Sea This is another problem with the extremely cold air… crab and cod fishermen in the Bering Sea are having a hard time navigating through the massive ice sheets coming down into St. Paul and St. George Islands. “The NWS Ice Desk’s phone has been ringing frequently this week with calls from concerned crab and cod fishermen out in the Bering Sea wondering what’s going on with the ice edge. While some of the fishermen may not remember the ice ever coming down this fast, this is only the 4th earliest in our 27 years of records (dating back to 1986) for the ice to arrive at the northern St. Paul Island coast during January.
For a complete report of the early ice edge at the Pribilof Islands see our webpage: ( http://bit.ly/AC32FD).
St. Paul island is currently surrounded by sea ice up to 1 1/2 feet thick, covering 50 to 70% of the water surface. On Friday this ice will continue to increase in concentration to cover over 70% of the water surface.
St. George Island has strips of thinner ice up to 1 foot thick in concentrations of 10 to 30%. Higher concentrations of ice are expected to push in on Friday.” Custom Built Tornado Home Survives Alabama Tornado This home was built to withstand high winds and it did just that. The tornadoes wasn’t able to damage the structure, but it moved the home off of its foundation. “A couple in Alabama built their home to withstand a hurricane and ended up surviving the tornado that moved through Birmingham on Monday. The house was picked up, moved 20 feet, and set down at a 15 degree angle to where it was.” The picture below is from The Birmingham News – see the story HERE To Shovel or not to Shovel… That is the Question. I’d have to say that forecasting clipper systems could be one of the most challenging out of all the winter weather events. It may not be the hardest, but if certainly ranks up there. Why? Take a look at the image below. This is just one models solution to Friday’s snow event. Note how skinny the ‘heaviest’ snow is… not very. Over the course of the last several model runs, I’ve seen this solution change quite a bit and forecasting a narrow strip 1″ to 3″ of snow that could shift its track 25 to 50 miles north or south could mean dramatically less or more snow depending on where this thing sails off to. So, with that said, I could see light snow developing tomorrow across the area with light accumulations possible. Some may have to do a little light shoveling, but again, this is not going to be a blockbuster event. This could however slow your afternoon/evening commute down quite a bit, especially if the heaviest snow sails right overhead… Stay tuned! Thanks for checking in and have a great weekend ahead! Don’t forget to check me out on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV -Meteorologist Todd Nelson-
Pacific Remnants
Todd’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
THURSDAY: AM flurry possible. More PM sun and breezy. Another thaw. High: 34. Winds: W 10-20mph THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloud and quiet. Low: 18. Winds: W 10-15mph
FRIDAY: Another clipper approaches, light snow chance later, mainly across the Minnesota River valley High: 31. Winds: WNW 10-15 SATURDAY: Turning colder. Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries. Low: 16. High: 27.
SUNDAY: Cold sunshine dims by afternoon.. Low: 8. High: 18.
MONDAY: Clouds thicken, PM drizzle or flurries possible. Low: 11. High: 31.
TUESDAY: Wintry mix changes to snow. Low: 20. High: 34.
WEDNESDAY: Still mild, nothing rough. Low: 20. High: 30.
Northern Lights Event This is quite a video from Norway, check it out HERE: Yesterday’s deluge in Texas was the first substantial rainfall the state has seen in some time, good news for those still dealing with an exceptional drought. The only problem is that some folks had nearly 7″ of rain in just a few hours leading to flash flooding. There were reports of nearly a dozen water rescues in Austin after nearly 6″ of rain fell during the early morning hours on Wednesday. That storm system is going to threaten some of the same areas of Mississippi and Alabama that had significant storms and tornadoes earlier this week.
After talking with a good friend and colleague of mine at WeatherNation about Monday’s tornadoes (12 confirmed), he had a hard time telling me about areas that were flattened again. A school, that he did a number of public speaking engagements at, is gone. Even with an average lead time of 34 mintues (according to NOAA), there were still fatalities. Our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone dealing with these events.
A steady stream of Pacific moisture is getting squeezed out over the northern Rockies, we are getting the remnants. Our next shot at light snow scoots in on Friday, stay tuned!
Here was the preliminary damage survey from the Austin NWS ...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEY FOR NORTHEAST AUSTIN TX... A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM DAMAGE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED THISMORNING IN THE AREA ALONG SPRINGDALE ROAD IN NORTHEAST AUSTIN. THEFOLLOWING HAVE BEEN DETERMINED... EVENT DATE: JANUARY 25 2012EVENT RATING: AWAITING FINAL DATAESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH): AWAITING FINAL RATINGINJURIES/FATALITIES: 0EVENT START TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 30.3221/-97.6536 AT 258 AMEVENT END TIME/LOCATION COORDINATES: 33.3381/-97.6551 AT 305 AMDAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES): 1.14DAMAGE PATH WIDTH (IN YARDS): 50 THE TORNADO PATH BEGAN AT THE INTERSECTION OF COMMERCIAL PARK DRIVEAND OLD MANOR ROAD...WITH RADAR INDICATING A TOUCHDOWN TIME NEAR2:58 AM. DAMAGE CONTINUED NORTH THROUGH AN INDUSTRIAL PARK...THENACROSS U.S. 290...BEFORE ENTERING THE WALNUT PLACE SUBDIVISION.FURTHER DAMAGE OCCURRED TO HOMES ON THE WEST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL...WITH TREES ON THE EAST SIDE OF HAPPY TRAIL LAYING DOWN TOWARD THEWEST AND CONVERGING WITH THE DAMAGE TO THE HOMES. DEBRIS WAS NOTEDALONG FERGUSON LANE...WITH THE TORNADO PATH ENDING JUST WEST OF THEINTERSECTION OF FERGUSON LANE AND SANSOM ROAD. Shelf Cloud in Kingsville, TX Look at what folks in Kingsville, TX woke up to Wednesday AM. This is a “Shelf Cloud” or the leading edge of a line of thunderstorm. This would indicate that strong gusty winds and heavy rain will probably be moving in very soon… Take cover!! Squall Line Across Texas Look at the radar image from earlier Wednesday near Houston, TX! Yikes, that looks nasty! The red boxes are thunderstorm warnings, which produced wind damage and possibly even tornado damage as it moved through central and eastern Texas. Not Done With Severe Weather Thursday has been highlighted as another day of severe weather weather potential along the Gulf Coast. Stay tuned to latest forecasts and have those weather radios running with battery back-up just in case severe weather threatens your neighborhood! Thursday’s Severe Weather Threat
Record Rainfall Austin, TX early Wednesday morning had already seen over 5″ of rain (good enough for a daily rainfall record) A number of other record rainfall reports fell as well. Note: the numbers below don’t show how much rain actually fell on Wednesday, it was only a representation from what fell through early Wednesday. Here’s a story on the heavy rain that fell in Texas from Star-Telegram.com “It might not be a drought-buster, but more than 4 inches of rain across the region draped a dripping wet blanket on a ferocious dry spell that stretches back to October 2010.” Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/01/25/3686451/deluge-creates-travel-woes-but.html#storylink=cpy More Heavy Rain in the Forecast This is the rainfall forecast through AM Friday, note the widespread 1″ to 3″ amounts across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Minor flooding along area rivers and stream could also be a problem in these locations. Note also the Pacific Northwest where heavy moisture continues through Friday, where heavy coastal rain could lead to flooding. Mountain snow will continue to add up too! Google Public Alerts! This is new to me… check out Google Public Alerts HERE: What is Google Public Alerts? Google Public Alerts is Google’s new platform for disseminating emergency messages such as evacuation notices for hurricanes, and everyday alerts such as storm warnings. We’re starting by showing relevant weather, public safety and earthquake alerts from US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Weather Service, and the US Geological Survey (USGS) when you search on Google Maps. Friday Snow Chance Another weak disturbance will quickly slide through on Friday, at this point it looks like the best chance for accumulations will be along the Minnesota River Valley and along the Minnesota/Iowa border. Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your week! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWNTV -Meteorologist Todd Nelson-
Take Those Kids Outside
At a meeting I attended last week we were asked to share what our communities are doing to strengthen the connection between children and nature. Sad to say, I couldn’t think of a thing.
Since then, I’ve reflected on what I think is lacking. I’ve also realized there is more available than I’d initially thought.
I wish that our school would host a community garden or implement a Farm-to-School program. But it hasn’t and I would be shocked if it did. Likewise, I think more classes could be held outdoors. There is so much more that could be learned outside of the classroom. Science is a no brainer. Kids can study water cycles, weather and all kinds of habitat issues. The list is never ending. But all classes could work well outdoors. Writing, art, and math are all very relevant outdoor topics. Gym class could include snowshoeing or hiking or a number of other activities.
I’ve mentioned before that most parents here drive their kids to school. Actually, I think everyone does except for us. We encourage and sometimes force our kids to walk or ride their bikes when the weather is nice. Our school doesn’t provide bus service in town. This makes sense to me, but when it was implemented a few years ago most of the town parents were up in arms. They thought it would be dangerous for kids to walk to school and so now they drive them. While a walk to school isn’t much, it does provide a daily connection with the outdoors.
While I tend to focus on what is lacking, our kids aren’t completely disconnected from nature.
On the plus side, hunting and fishing are very popular here. Most kids take gun safety courses and hunting is the “in” thing. While I didn’t grow up with guns and at times I worry about safety, I think hunting does help to connect kids with the outdoors. And, so I appreciate its popularity. Fishing is also a common pastime for kids here. It isn’t odd during warm weather to see them standing with their friends near the dam or river holding a fishing rod. It’s pretty amazing when you think about it.
In addition, Lake Bronson State Park offers activities like cross country skiing, an ice fishing derby, lake swimming and other programs directed at families. We are fortunate to have this gem close by. I am thankful for all of Minnesota’s state and regional parks and their role in exposing our kids to the outdoors.
I’m relieved that area children have these connections, but there is so much more that we could offer. For the sake of our kids and our society, we need to get the kids outside.
What is your community doing to strengthen the connection between children and nature?
Local Weather Not Too Threatening; More on the Alabama Tornadoes
Todd’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
WEDNESDAY: A few flurries possible early. Clearing trend and warmer. High: 32. Winds: S 5-15mph WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and quiet. Lingering northern lights possible. Low: 23. Winds: SW 5-10mph
THURSDAY: Intervals of sun and breezy. Another thaw. High: 34. Winds: W 10-20mph
FRIDAY: Another clipper approaches, light snow chance later. Low: 17. High: 30. Winds: WNW 10-15 SATURDAY: Turning colder. Partly sunny and a few lingering flurries possible. Low: 15. High: 23.
SUNDAY: Still chilly. Partly sunny and more flurries, mainly north. Low: 8. High: 23.
MONDAY: Slightly warmer, patchy clouds: Low: 12. High: 28.
TUESDAY: Nothing rough. Sun and cloud mix. Low: 20. High: 32.
Paul Sundberg Photography Nice shot Paul! You can read his commentary below and check out his website HERE: “Earlier in the week lots of ice had built up on the Grand Marais break wall. I walked out to take a few pictures but before I got there I was in for a pleasant surprise. There in front of me right along side of the trail was a beautiful snowy owl. Snowy owls are one of the largest owls in the world. They live on the tundra but sometimes come down to United States during the winter. This snowy was so well camouflaged that I wouldn’t have even seen her had she not moved her head to look at me. The feathers on her back blended right in with the rocks. The snowy was very tolerant of my presence. As she took flight she gracefully passed right by the windows of the border patrol station before landing out on Artist Point.
The face and beak of the snowy owl has feathers so thin and fine that they look like fur. This insulation can keep them warm as they spend most of their time in the arctic where temperatures can reach -80°F. I felt very fortunate to be able to walk up on one of our northlands most beautiful creatures.”
As we muddle through the last full week of January 2012, I still don’t see any major winter storms or bone chilling temperatures in sight. Through today’s date, the MSP Airport has only seen 3 sub-zero nights, which is roughly 12 times below normal. The January scorecard continues to come up short in wintry stats as we are still nearly 16″ below normal snowfall this season even after the, official, 1.9″ of snow that fell at the MSP Airport on Monday.
Looking back at 2011 data, we’ve had above average temperatures since June! In fact, 4 out of the last 7 months made it into the top 10 warmest months in recorded history for their respective month. January 2012 hasn’t spoiled the mild yet either. So far, we are nearly 7 degrees above average and I don’t see any letting up in that department as the mercury flirts with the mid 30s over the next few days.
Those who snubbed their shoveling duties on Monday will get a little help from Mother Nature as a little sun help the melting process this week. Other than a few scattered flurry chances in the extended forecast, our winter outlook still looks pretty tame. In the meantime, look up for the aurora again tonight!
Solar Flare
This is amazing… take a look at the solar flare that caused the northern lights HERE: The video covers about 24 hours of activity
More on Monday’s Tornadoes
The pictures and stories coming out of the southeast are bringing back bad memories. Take a look at a before and after picture in Clay, AL
Damage Out of Center Point, AL
This is a 360 degree view of some of the damage seen out of Center Point, AL
HERE’s the link
National Weather Service in Birmingham, AL – Tornado Damage Surveys
The National Weather Service in Birmingham, AL has been working tirelessly since the event to conduct their damage surveys and have come up with at least 6 tornadoes, the strongest of which was an EF-3 with winds up to 150mph.
See the Damage Surveys HERE:
Tornado Controversy
“ABC News is responding to criticism from a meteorologist at an ABC affiliate in Alabama after a report on “World News” implied Monday’s tornadoes in the region touched down with no warning.“
Read the full story HERE:
HERE’s Another Story From “Capital Weather Gang”
According to @JustingNOAA on Twitter
“Average warning lead time for recent tornado event was 34.4 minutes”
What Do We Take Away From This & Similar Events?
1.) Having a NOAA Weather Radio is vital
2.) If a tornado warning has been issued for your area, get to the lowest floor of your home (basement if possible). If you don’t have a basement, get to an interior room (bathroom is best, get in the bathtub and cover yourself with blankets/mattress/pillows) the idea is that you want to put as many walls between you and the tornado as possible!
3.) Many people are killed by flying debris… it may sound funny, but get a helmet (hockey, football, bike helmet). If you were to take a nasty blow to the head, the force may be muted by the added protection! Keep that helmet under your bed in case of overnight emergencies when and if your weather radio goes off!
Here are some other very important tornado safety tips from the SPC
Other tornado information HERE from the NSSL
More Severe Weather Safety Tips from NOAA
Tornadoes, Taxes Coincide With Most Stressful Days of 2011
This is an interesting study, which states that in 2011, tornadoes and taxes were some of the most stressful days out of the entire year.
HERE is that study:
Closer to Home
This is a different look at a longer range model, the GFS. It’s giving us a few light chances of light snow over the next few days. Flurries is likely all we’ll see through early Wednesday. Another chance of light snow, this time, maybe a light dusting and another light chance over the weekend. Again, it doesn’t look like much.
Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week.
Don’t forget to check me out on Twitter: @TNelsonWNTV
-Meteorologist Todd Nelson-
An Environmental Legacy
A younger friend of mine and I were talking recently about his newborn son. An active environmentalist for a long time, my friend is thrilled to be raising a child with his wife – but also worried about the planet his son will inherit. “What will my son deal with?” he asked me.
The question prompted me to reflect on why people work on protecting our air, land and water. Is it about today or is it about tomorrow? Obviously the answer is both, but sometimes the “tomorrow” element escapes notice. “Tomorrow” is our legacy – hence the name of the Legacy Amendment approved by Minnesota voters in 2008. This 25-year initiative is pumping money into clean water and healthy habitats that will benefit our children’s children.
But that’s not enough. Our challenges go beyond Minnesota. My friend’s son will turn 21 in 2032. What planet, in fact, will he inhabit?
The population of the Earth topped 7 billion last fall, as much as 3 billion above what some observers is sustainable in terms of demand on natural resources. Global climate is in fundamental change, and not for the better. Fresh water is scarce for an estimated 2.5 billion people.
It sounds daunting, until you remember that 40 years ago, some predicted global environmental collapse by 1990. I remember one “futuristic” prime-time TV show from about 1967 that showed Americans of the ‘90s walking around cities in gas masks and mostly living underground for survival.
We averted that future. Not through wishing, but through action. And if we did it then, we can do it now. Through commitment, not through wishing. We need to be smart and good stewards – and we need to shun those who say we have no real environmental problems (for example, “climate change is not real”). You can’t solve them if you don’t acknowledge them.
One of my favorite quotes is from John F. Kennedy. “Our problems are man-made, therefore they may be solved by man. No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings.”
That’s what I’m telling my friend. If we do our work, his son will live on a planet better than the one on which we live.
Chilly Tuesday; January Thaw Returns This Week
Todd’s Conservation Minnesota Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
TUESDAY: Cold start. Lighter winds and more sun. High: 23. Winds: SW 5-10mphTUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet, not as cold. Low: 15. Winds: SSW 5-10mph.
WEDNESDAY: Increase in clouds, turning breezy with a few light snow or flurries up north late. High: 32. Winds: WSW 10-20mph
THURSDAY: Intervals of sun and breezy. Another thaw. Low: 23. High: 33. Winds: W 10-20mph
FRIDAY: Still mild with some sun. Low: 19. High: 32. Winds: WNW 10-15 SATURDAY: Turning colder with more clouds and a few afternoon flurries up north. Low: 14. High: 24. SUNDAY: Colder with a few passing flurries. Low: 7. High: 20.
MONDAY: Feels like January again, passing flurries: Low: 10. High: 24
One Last Look At Monday’s Bad News On The Roads I don’t want to have to have you relive your bad Monday’s commuting experience again, but here’s one last look at what the roads looked like. Good thing we haven’t too many days like the what my good friend and colleague, Aaron Shaffer, captured in the video HERE: Thankfully Monday’s weather event is in our rearview mirror. I’m sure after yesterday morning’s commute, many are happy that we haven’t had many of those kinds of daySs this winter season. A light coating of ‘frizzle’ on Sunday topped off with 1″ to 3″ of snow AM Monday was the perfect recipe for fender benders. This storm was also responsible for another fairly rare tornadic outbreak across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley and the Southeast. Not sure I can recall tracking supercell thunderstorm at 6AM in the middle of January. It’s another reminder that although rare and not unprecedented in January, severe storms and tornadoes can happen at any time of the year and at any time of the day. Technology and warnings systems are getting better, but it’s up to you be aware of the situation. My wife probably wouldn’t agree that hearing my 2 weather radios going off in the middle of the night is something that she wants to hear, but to be honest, it’s one of the cheapest forms of life insurance one could get. Today’s cold start will give way to more sunshine and mild temps later this week. I’m still wondering when winter will really rear it’s head. Snowfall Reports From Monday Here are the snowfall reports from Monday’s snowfall event: PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN300 PM CST MON JAN 23 2012 ...SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE JANUARY 22-23RD WINTER STORM... SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME ------ ----------------------- -- -------------- ------- 3.50 OWATONNA MN STEELE 1006 AM 3.50 SW ELLENDALE MN STEELE 0700 AM 3.40 NORTH ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0252 PM 3.30 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 1047 AM 3.20 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 1205 PM MEASURED AT THE PRISON. 3.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 1241 PM 3.00 CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0957 AM 3.00 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0953 AM 3.00 3 SE ALBERT LEA MN FREEBORN 0800 AM 3.00 ZUMBROTA MN GOODHUE 0700 AM 2.80 HUTCHINSON MN MCLEOD 0655 AM 2.80 E OWATONNA MN STEELE 0615 AM 2.50 CLEAR LAKE WI POLK 0139 PM 2.50 MANKATO MN BLUE EARTH 0821 AM 2.50 3 SE NEW ULM MN BROWN 0735 AM 2.50 1 NNW SPRINGFIELD MN BROWN 0700 AM 2.40 RICE MN BENTON 1021 AM 2.40 NORTHFIELD MN RICE 1012 AM 2.30 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0112 PM 2.10 MONTICELLO MN WRIGHT 1123 AM 2.10 ST CLOUD MN STEARNS 0600 AM MEASURED AT ST CLOUD STATE UNIVERSITY 2.00 INVER GROVE HEIGHTS MN DAKOTA 0259 PM 2.00 8 NW MORA MN KANABEC 0252 PM OCCURRED IN LAKE TOWNSHIP. 2.00 MENOMONIE WI DUNN 1238 PM REPORT RELAYED VIA WQOW. 2.00 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 1204 PM 2.00 HASTINGS MN DAKOTA 0956 AM 2.00 3 SW CARLOS MN DOUGLAS 0851 AM 2.00 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 0811 AM 2.00 1 SSW RIVER FALLS WI PIERCE 0700 AM 2.00 6 NNW AMERY WI POLK 0700 AM 2.00 3 SE LAKE ELMO MN WASHINGTON 0700 AM 2.00 ELK RIVER MN SHERBURNE 0700 AM 2.00 3 N KIMBALL MN STEARNS 0600 AM 2.00 RED WING MN GOODHUE 0600 AM 2.00 1 NNW COLD SPRING MN STEARNS 0600 AM 1.90 MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1210 PM 1.80 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 1123 AM 1.80 ELK MOUND WI DUNN 0800 AM 1.80 2 WNW LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0700 AM 1.50 LAKEVILLE MN DAKOTA 0805 AM 1.50 1 S RICE LAKE WI BARRON 0802 AM 1.50 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM 1.50 DURAND WI PEPIN 0800 AM 1.50 1 S BLUE EARTH MN FARIBAULT 0800 AM 1.50 9 NNE BIRD ISLAND MN RENVILLE 0730 AM 1.50 FAIRMONT MN MARTIN 0700 AM 1.50 3 SSW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0700 AM 1.50 3 N BOYCEVILLE WI DUNN 0700 AM 1.30 1 ENE MINNESOTA LAKE MN FARIBAULT 0201 PM 1.30 1 SW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 0856 AM 1.30 MORRIS MN STEVENS 0800 AM 1.30 MILACA MN MILLE LACS 0730 AM 1.30 6 ESE DRESSER WI POLK 0700 AM 1.20 WACONIA MN CARVER 0201 PM 1.20 EAU CLAIRE WI EAU CLAIRE 1210 PM MEASURED AT WQOW TV. 1.20 NORTH MANKATO MN NICOLLET 0700 AM 1.10 ST LOUIS PARK MN HENNEPIN 1204 PM 1.10 ONAMIA MN MILLE LACS 0800 AM 1.10 RICE MN BENTON 0700 AM 1.10 REDWOOD FALLS MN REDWOOD 0600 AM 1.00 BROOKLYN CENTER MN HENNEPIN 0203 PM 1.00 VESTA MN REDWOOD 0108 PM 1.00 3 N WATERTOWN MN WRIGHT 0844 AM 1.00 BLOOMER WI CHIPPEWA 0800 AM 1.00 1 ENE ST MICHAEL MN WRIGHT 0700 AM 1.00 3 N CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 0700 AM 1.00 HOLCOMBE WI CHIPPEWA 0700 AM 1.00 LITTLE FALLS MN MORRISON 0630 AM 0.80 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 1205 PM Severe Storms & Tornadoes This system also brought severe weather to parts of the Mississippi Valley and the Southeast. Unfortunately, some of the storms did prove to be fatal. The picture below is from ThePinson ClayNews Fairly Rare January Tornado Outbreak Take a look at some of the tornado tracks from Sunday Night into Monday’s event. Disclaimer, the graphic title below should be be 2012, not 2011. Bringing Back Old (Bad) Memories This is a look at one of the tornado tracks on the north side of Birmingham, note how close it is to one of the tornado tracks during the BIG outbreak earlier last spring… scary! Photo courtesy: Kevin Manross More On The Tornadoes Read More HERE: “(CNN) — Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley declared a State of Emergency for all 67 counties in Alabama after severe weather tore through the state early Monday morning, killing at least two people and injuring more than 100.“ Northern Lights Potential! Read the full article HERE: “The strongest Solar Radiation Storm since September, 2005 is in progress and continues to get stronger and a very fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is headed towards Earth. Geomagnetic storming is a near certainty from this event, but pending preliminary analysis, no estimates are available yet for timing or strength of the storm. The associated solar flare peaked at the R2 (Moderate) level on January 23 at 0400 GMT (11pm Jan 22 EST). Radiation storms are a concern for astronauts, for communications at high latitudes, for satellites in space and for many rockets being launched…The model guidance is back and it shows the coronal mass ejection arriving Tuesday at 9am EST (1400 GMT). The ‘bump’ on Jan 24 in the green traces is the coronal mass ejection arriving at Earth. The radiation storm is continuing. A correction is needed on the previous post, it is the strongest storm since December, 2006.” Read more from SpaceWeather HERE: See This Neat Animation HERE: Thanks for checking in, have a great rest of your week. Don’t forget to check me out on Twitter: TNelsonWNTV
